Elevated crude oil prices near $82–83 per barrel for WTI, driven by persistent volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related supply risks, remain the dominant factor supporting U.S. regular gasoline averages around $4.09–$4.14 per gallon as of late August 2026. Tight inventories, with stocks 6% below the five-year average after a 2.5 million barrel draw, combined with near-max refinery utilization and rising demand ahead of Labor Day, have pushed August toward a record monthly high. Seasonal post-holiday demand softening could exert downward pressure into September, but ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and limited spare production capacity continue to limit downside risks for near-term averages. Key upcoming data include weekly EIA inventory reports and any shifts in Hormuz flows that could alter the market-implied path for gasoline through month-end.