Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
37% chance
$177,334 Vol.
$177,334 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
37% chance
$177,334 Vol.
$177,334 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$177,334Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$177,334Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent quota disputes and the UAE’s May 2026 exit have tested OPEC cohesion, yet no additional departures have occurred by mid-September. Iraq floated a possible withdrawal in June over production limits amid Iran-related export disruptions but quickly clarified its intent to remain and seek higher allocations internally. Venezuela has weighed an exit in internal talks, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given its modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure following a new U.S. oil agreement. OPEC+ members reaffirmed unchanged October targets in early September, signaling continued coordination despite reduced membership. These developments underpin trader expectations that no further country will leave before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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