Reza Pahlavi remains in exile nearly five decades after the 1979 revolution, with no confirmed plans or conditions enabling his physical return to Iranian territory as of August 2026. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, combined with U.S. and Israeli military actions that month, intensified speculation about regime instability and transition scenarios under Pahlavi's Iran Prosperity Project. However, ongoing security constraints, limited opposition coordination inside the country, and reports of eroding domestic support have kept trader-implied probabilities for entry by year-end low. Markets reflect the view that any return would require verified territorial control or regime change first, with resolution hinging on verifiable presence rather than statements alone. Key upcoming factors include protest cycles, diplomatic developments, and internal security shifts that could alter feasibility.