Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 because recent normalization momentum has stalled amid persistent regional constraints. Kazakhstan acceded in late 2025 and Somaliland pledged following Israeli recognition that same month, yet major candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition any deal on concrete steps toward a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Syria and Lebanon face domestic instability and ongoing Israeli military operations that have blocked progress despite U.S. diplomatic engagement. Sudan’s earlier agreement remains unratified due to internal conflict, while broader U.S. and Israeli efforts to expand the framework have yielded no additional formal accessions in 2026. These entrenched diplomatic and security hurdles underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ?
Oui
$262,067 Vol.
$262,067 Vol.
Oui
$262,067 Vol.
$262,067 Vol.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 because recent normalization momentum has stalled amid persistent regional constraints. Kazakhstan acceded in late 2025 and Somaliland pledged following Israeli recognition that same month, yet major candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition any deal on concrete steps toward a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Syria and Lebanon face domestic instability and ongoing Israeli military operations that have blocked progress despite U.S. diplomatic engagement. Sudan’s earlier agreement remains unratified due to internal conflict, while broader U.S. and Israeli efforts to expand the framework have yielded no additional formal accessions in 2026. These entrenched diplomatic and security hurdles underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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