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Géopolitique·Moyen-Orient

Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ?

icon for Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ?
Géopolitique·Moyen-Orient

Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ?

août 31

déc. 31

août 31

déc. 31

Oui

31% chance
Polymarket

$262,067 Vol.

Oui

31% chance
Polymarket

$262,067 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 69% probability that no additional country will join the Abraham Accords by the end of 2026, reflecting stalled high-profile normalization talks and the short timeline remaining. Kazakhstan formalized accession in early 2026 following a White House summit, and Somaliland pledged to join after Israel's December 2025 recognition, yet major candidates such as Saudi Arabia have reiterated that any deal requires concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood. U.S. President Trump has publicly linked Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation and other incentives to Abraham Accords membership, but Riyadh maintains its conditions amid ongoing regional conflicts involving Iran and its proxies. Limited movement with other potential signatories like Qatar, Oman, or Syria, combined with domestic political constraints and security recalibrations across the Gulf, has reinforced the current trader consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$262,067
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 69% probability that no additional country will join the Abraham Accords by the end of 2026, reflecting stalled high-profile normalization talks and the short timeline remaining. Kazakhstan formalized accession in early 2026 following a White House summit, and Somaliland pledged to join after Israel's December 2025 recognition, yet major candidates such as Saudi Arabia have reiterated that any deal requires concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood. U.S. President Trump has publicly linked Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation and other incentives to Abraham Accords membership, but Riyadh maintains its conditions amid ongoing regional conflicts involving Iran and its proxies. Limited movement with other potential signatories like Qatar, Oman, or Syria, combined with domestic political constraints and security recalibrations across the Gulf, has reinforced the current trader consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$262,067
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ? » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 31¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 31% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ? » a généré $262.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ? » est « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ? » à 31%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 31% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Un nouveau pays rejoindra-t-il les Accords d'Abraham avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.