**Traders assign "No" a 90.8% probability for a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 primarily because major candidates remain blocked by entrenched conditions and the short remaining timeframe offers little room for breakthroughs.** Saudi Arabia, the most consequential potential addition, continues to tie normalization to a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a demand reiterated amid U.S. efforts to link a civilian nuclear cooperation deal to accession. Recent U.S. approval of potential F-35 sales to Riyadh has advanced separately, reducing one leverage point without producing diplomatic movement. Smaller prospects such as Kuwait face significant domestic hurdles, including parliamentary opposition, despite an Israeli envoy's mid-September 2026 speculation of possible entry within four to six months. Other mentioned states, including Oman, Qatar, or post-conflict Syria and Lebanon, show no verified acceleration toward formal accession. Recent activity has centered on deepening existing ties, such as Israel-Morocco upgrades to full embassies and direct flights by year-end, rather than expanding membership. With only months left before 2027 and no scheduled announcements or resolved sticking points, the market reflects consensus that the structural barriers—chiefly Palestinian-linked demands and internal political constraints—will hold through the resolution window.