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icon for Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ?
Géopolitique·Cessez-le-feu En Iran

Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ?

icon for Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ?
Géopolitique·Cessez-le-feu En Iran

Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ?

$8,451,722 Vol.

30 sept. 2026
Polymarket

$8,451,722 Vol.

Polymarket

30 septembre

$264,261 Vol.

1%

31 décembre

$225,668 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered June 2026 framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established a conditions-based process for phased Israeli redeployment from southern Lebanon, starting with two limited pilot zones where the Lebanese Armed Forces would assume security responsibility after verified disarmament of non-state groups like Hezbollah. The security annex ties any further withdrawals to measurable progress on dismantling militant infrastructure rather than fixed timelines, allowing Israel to maintain its security zone until threats are neutralized. As of mid-September 2026, Israel has conducted operations against Hezbollah positions, including tunnel networks, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited the south to stress withdrawal, prisoner returns, and reconstruction as national priorities. Scheduled follow-on talks were postponed until October amid Hezbollah's rejection of disarmament without prior full Israeli exit. These dynamics center trader focus on implementation barriers, Lebanese army effectiveness, and any escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs within resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,451,722
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered June 2026 framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established a conditions-based process for phased Israeli redeployment from southern Lebanon, starting with two limited pilot zones where the Lebanese Armed Forces would assume security responsibility after verified disarmament of non-state groups like Hezbollah. The security annex ties any further withdrawals to measurable progress on dismantling militant infrastructure rather than fixed timelines, allowing Israel to maintain its security zone until threats are neutralized. As of mid-September 2026, Israel has conducted operations against Hezbollah positions, including tunnel networks, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited the south to stress withdrawal, prisoner returns, and reconstruction as national priorities. Scheduled follow-on talks were postponed until October amid Hezbollah's rejection of disarmament without prior full Israeli exit. These dynamics center trader focus on implementation barriers, Lebanese army effectiveness, and any escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs within resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,451,722
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

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Questions fréquentes

« Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 6%, suivi de « 30 septembre » à 1%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 6¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 6% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ? » a généré $8.5 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 16, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ? » est « 31 décembre » à seulement 6%, avec « 30 septembre » juste derrière à 1%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.