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icon for Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
Politique·Russie

Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?

icon for Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
Politique·Russie

Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?

$7,652,926 Vol.

31 oct. 2026
Polymarket

$7,652,926 Vol.

Polymarket

31 octobre

$1,661,161 Vol.

8%

30 novembre

$4,508 Vol.

12%

31 décembre

$2,629,451 Vol.

24%

31 janvier 2027

$21,335 Vol.

34%

28 février 2027

$3,547 Vol.

38%

31 mars 2027

$70,926 Vol.

40%

30 avril 2027

$608 Vol.

45%

31 mai 2027

$1,560 Vol.

53%

30 juin 2027

$126,586 Vol.

56%

31 juillet 2027

$1,156 Vol.

58%

31 août 2027

$148 Vol.

62%

30 septembre 2027

$708 Vol.

63%

31 octobre 2027

$2,973 Vol.

65%

30 novembre 2027

$803 Vol.

66%

31 décembre 2027

$3,949 Vol.

70%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic efforts intensified in early September 2026 as envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, securing agreement in principle for renewed trilateral talks expected in October. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and other territorial concessions as preconditions for any broader settlement, positions Kyiv has rejected. Recent US proposals for mutual halts on energy infrastructure strikes have drawn cautious responses but no confirmed reciprocal deal, amid ongoing Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy sites. Scheduled events include Russian parliamentary elections in mid-September and potential high-level meetings around the UN General Assembly, though core gaps on security guarantees and territorial control continue to limit prospects for a comprehensive ceasefire agreement in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,652,926
Date de fin
1 juil. 2027
Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic efforts intensified in early September 2026 as envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, securing agreement in principle for renewed trilateral talks expected in October. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and other territorial concessions as preconditions for any broader settlement, positions Kyiv has rejected. Recent US proposals for mutual halts on energy infrastructure strikes have drawn cautious responses but no confirmed reciprocal deal, amid ongoing Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy sites. Scheduled events include Russian parliamentary elections in mid-September and potential high-level meetings around the UN General Assembly, though core gaps on security guarantees and territorial control continue to limit prospects for a comprehensive ceasefire agreement in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,652,926
Date de fin
1 juil. 2027
Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

Connexes

icon for Des pourparlers de paix entre la Russie et l'Ukraine d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Des pourparlers de paix entre la Russie et l'Ukraine d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

69%
Oui
icon for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

14%
icon for L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder du territoire à la Russie avant 2027 ?

L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder du territoire à la Russie avant 2027 ?

9%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 18 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre 2027 » à 70%, suivi de « 30 novembre 2027 » à 66%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 70¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » a généré $7.7 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 12, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? », parcourez les 18 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » est « 31 décembre 2027 » à 70%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30 novembre 2027 » à 66%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.