Ongoing Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities through late July 2026, alongside incremental territorial gains in Donetsk at high casualty costs, continue to shape trader views on near-term ceasefire prospects. Ukraine has proposed a third round of direct talks, while the Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed calls for an immediate ceasefire paired with binding security guarantees involving the US and Europe. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, have reiterated maximalist conditions—full Ukrainian withdrawal from four eastern and southern oblasts and exclusion of European parties—while rejecting such guarantees. US diplomatic engagement under President Trump, including NATO Summit references to security arrangements, provides the main external catalyst, though persistent battlefield activity and divergent negotiating positions limit momentum toward agreement before typical resolution windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAccord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
$5,777,258 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre
15%
31 août
6%
31 décembre
34%
$5,777,258 Vol.
31 octobre
$821,824 Vol.
15%
31 août
$334,349 Vol.
6%
31 décembre
$2,083,753 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities through late July 2026, alongside incremental territorial gains in Donetsk at high casualty costs, continue to shape trader views on near-term ceasefire prospects. Ukraine has proposed a third round of direct talks, while the Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed calls for an immediate ceasefire paired with binding security guarantees involving the US and Europe. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, have reiterated maximalist conditions—full Ukrainian withdrawal from four eastern and southern oblasts and exclusion of European parties—while rejecting such guarantees. US diplomatic engagement under President Trump, including NATO Summit references to security arrangements, provides the main external catalyst, though persistent battlefield activity and divergent negotiating positions limit momentum toward agreement before typical resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,777,258Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities through late July 2026, alongside incremental territorial gains in Donetsk at high casualty costs, continue to shape trader views on near-term ceasefire prospects. Ukraine has proposed a third round of direct talks, while the Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed calls for an immediate ceasefire paired with binding security guarantees involving the US and Europe. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, have reiterated maximalist conditions—full Ukrainian withdrawal from four eastern and southern oblasts and exclusion of European parties—while rejecting such guarantees. US diplomatic engagement under President Trump, including NATO Summit references to security arrangements, provides the main external catalyst, though persistent battlefield activity and divergent negotiating positions limit momentum toward agreement before typical resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,777,258Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities through late July 2026, alongside incremental territorial gains in Donetsk at high casualty costs, continue to shape trader views on near-term ceasefire prospects. Ukraine has proposed a third round of direct talks, while the Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed calls for an immediate ceasefire paired with binding security guarantees involving the US and Europe. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, have reiterated maximalist conditions—full Ukrainian withdrawal from four eastern and southern oblasts and exclusion of European parties—while rejecting such guarantees. US diplomatic engagement under President Trump, including NATO Summit references to security arrangements, provides the main external catalyst, though persistent battlefield activity and divergent negotiating positions limit momentum toward agreement before typical resolution windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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