Recent US-mediated diplomacy has centered on proposals for a partial air ceasefire to curb strikes on infrastructure and cities, with Washington and Kyiv coordinating initiatives presented amid July meetings between Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov in Manila plus a scheduled Trump-Zelenskyy summit in Washington. Russian officials have signaled openness to negotiations in principle while rejecting immediate resumption and European security guarantees, citing ongoing territorial demands. Continued Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy sites underscore persistent battlefield pressure, even as prisoner exchanges and holiday pauses earlier in the year demonstrated limited de-escalation potential. These dynamics shape trader focus on whether incremental US-brokered steps can produce a formal halt before key deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAccord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
$5,776,939 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre
15%
31 août
6%
31 décembre
34%
$5,776,939 Vol.
31 octobre
$821,824 Vol.
15%
31 août
$334,029 Vol.
6%
31 décembre
$2,083,753 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-mediated diplomacy has centered on proposals for a partial air ceasefire to curb strikes on infrastructure and cities, with Washington and Kyiv coordinating initiatives presented amid July meetings between Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov in Manila plus a scheduled Trump-Zelenskyy summit in Washington. Russian officials have signaled openness to negotiations in principle while rejecting immediate resumption and European security guarantees, citing ongoing territorial demands. Continued Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy sites underscore persistent battlefield pressure, even as prisoner exchanges and holiday pauses earlier in the year demonstrated limited de-escalation potential. These dynamics shape trader focus on whether incremental US-brokered steps can produce a formal halt before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,776,939Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-mediated diplomacy has centered on proposals for a partial air ceasefire to curb strikes on infrastructure and cities, with Washington and Kyiv coordinating initiatives presented amid July meetings between Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov in Manila plus a scheduled Trump-Zelenskyy summit in Washington. Russian officials have signaled openness to negotiations in principle while rejecting immediate resumption and European security guarantees, citing ongoing territorial demands. Continued Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy sites underscore persistent battlefield pressure, even as prisoner exchanges and holiday pauses earlier in the year demonstrated limited de-escalation potential. These dynamics shape trader focus on whether incremental US-brokered steps can produce a formal halt before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,776,939Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-mediated diplomacy has centered on proposals for a partial air ceasefire to curb strikes on infrastructure and cities, with Washington and Kyiv coordinating initiatives presented amid July meetings between Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov in Manila plus a scheduled Trump-Zelenskyy summit in Washington. Russian officials have signaled openness to negotiations in principle while rejecting immediate resumption and European security guarantees, citing ongoing territorial demands. Continued Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy sites underscore persistent battlefield pressure, even as prisoner exchanges and holiday pauses earlier in the year demonstrated limited de-escalation potential. These dynamics shape trader focus on whether incremental US-brokered steps can produce a formal halt before key deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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