Escalating Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 capture of Mokha port and Perim Island, has intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving sharp reductions in vessel transits and elevating war-risk insurance premiums to around 1% of hull value. Saudi crude loadings through the strait have fallen roughly 50% since late July amid the declared maritime embargo on Saudi-linked shipping, prompting greater reliance on the East-West pipeline, SUMED, and longer Cape of Good Hope diversions that raise freight costs and delivery times. Daily transits remain in the low dozens for general cargo and tankers, with selective exemptions for certain flagged vessels sustaining minimal flows despite attacks on regional infrastructure. These dynamics support elevated implied probabilities of sustained disruption in related prediction markets while highlighting the resilience of rerouted supply chains and the potential for rapid volume shifts if hostilities de-escalate or intensify before key resolution dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0 navires transitent par Bab el-Mandeb à n'importe quelle date avant le.. ?
0 navires transitent par Bab el-Mandeb à n'importe quelle date avant le.. ?
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre
18%
31 décembre
51%
$24 Vol.
30 septembre
$24 Vol.
18%
31 décembre
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 capture of Mokha port and Perim Island, has intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving sharp reductions in vessel transits and elevating war-risk insurance premiums to around 1% of hull value. Saudi crude loadings through the strait have fallen roughly 50% since late July amid the declared maritime embargo on Saudi-linked shipping, prompting greater reliance on the East-West pipeline, SUMED, and longer Cape of Good Hope diversions that raise freight costs and delivery times. Daily transits remain in the low dozens for general cargo and tankers, with selective exemptions for certain flagged vessels sustaining minimal flows despite attacks on regional infrastructure. These dynamics support elevated implied probabilities of sustained disruption in related prediction markets while highlighting the resilience of rerouted supply chains and the potential for rapid volume shifts if hostilities de-escalate or intensify before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$24Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 capture of Mokha port and Perim Island, has intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving sharp reductions in vessel transits and elevating war-risk insurance premiums to around 1% of hull value. Saudi crude loadings through the strait have fallen roughly 50% since late July amid the declared maritime embargo on Saudi-linked shipping, prompting greater reliance on the East-West pipeline, SUMED, and longer Cape of Good Hope diversions that raise freight costs and delivery times. Daily transits remain in the low dozens for general cargo and tankers, with selective exemptions for certain flagged vessels sustaining minimal flows despite attacks on regional infrastructure. These dynamics support elevated implied probabilities of sustained disruption in related prediction markets while highlighting the resilience of rerouted supply chains and the potential for rapid volume shifts if hostilities de-escalate or intensify before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$24Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Escalating Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 capture of Mokha port and Perim Island, has intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving sharp reductions in vessel transits and elevating war-risk insurance premiums to around 1% of hull value. Saudi crude loadings through the strait have fallen roughly 50% since late July amid the declared maritime embargo on Saudi-linked shipping, prompting greater reliance on the East-West pipeline, SUMED, and longer Cape of Good Hope diversions that raise freight costs and delivery times. Daily transits remain in the low dozens for general cargo and tankers, with selective exemptions for certain flagged vessels sustaining minimal flows despite attacks on regional infrastructure. These dynamics support elevated implied probabilities of sustained disruption in related prediction markets while highlighting the resilience of rerouted supply chains and the potential for rapid volume shifts if hostilities de-escalate or intensify before key resolution dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes