US-Israeli airstrikes in late February and March 2026 targeted Iran's key nuclear facilities, including uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Arak, significantly degrading infrastructure and extending estimated breakout timelines to 1-3 months for fissile material alone, per IAEA assessments. A February IAEA report confirmed Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium sufficient for several bombs if further processed, but denied access to damaged sites and found no evidence of active weaponization. Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations in Geneva, extended cease-fires, and UN calls for inspections as of mid-April reflect diplomatic de-escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 90.5% "No" despite Tehran's denials of weapons intent—barring undetected advances or policy reversals by Supreme Leader Khamenei.