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icon for Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Politique·Déversement Régional

Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ?

icon for Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Politique·Déversement Régional

Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ?

Oui

6% chance
Polymarket

$272,861 Vol.

Oui

6% chance
Polymarket

$272,861 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any official KRG statements, parliamentary actions, or referendum preparations supports trader consensus against a unilateral independence declaration by year-end. Focus remains on ongoing Erbil-Baghdad talks over 2027 budget shares, oil revenue transfers, and salary disbursements, alongside stalled KRG cabinet formation between the KDP and PUK. The scheduled September 30 completion of U.S.-led coalition withdrawal, including air defenses from the Kurdistan Region, has heightened security concerns over potential Iranian-linked attacks, prompting KRG emphasis on coordination with federal authorities rather than separation. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and international opposition, further reinforces structural barriers within Iraq's constitutional framework.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$272,861
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any official KRG statements, parliamentary actions, or referendum preparations supports trader consensus against a unilateral independence declaration by year-end. Focus remains on ongoing Erbil-Baghdad talks over 2027 budget shares, oil revenue transfers, and salary disbursements, alongside stalled KRG cabinet formation between the KDP and PUK. The scheduled September 30 completion of U.S.-led coalition withdrawal, including air defenses from the Kurdistan Region, has heightened security concerns over potential Iranian-linked attacks, prompting KRG emphasis on coordination with federal authorities rather than separation. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and international opposition, further reinforces structural barriers within Iraq's constitutional framework.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$272,861
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

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Questions fréquentes

« Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Le GRK déclare-t-il son indépendance de l’Irak d’ici le 31 décembre ? » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 6¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 6% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ? » a généré $272.9K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ? » est « Le GRK déclare-t-il son indépendance de l’Irak d’ici le 31 décembre ? » à seulement 6%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.