Trader consensus favors "No" at 79.5% implied probability due to the absence of any verified diplomatic breakdowns leading to U.S. ambassador expulsions in recent months, despite heightened global tensions. President Trump's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 U.S. envoys from countries across Africa, Asia-Pacific, and elsewhere sparked concerns over retaliatory measures, but no host nations have declared U.S. diplomats persona non grata. Iran's March calls for Arab and European states to expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors elicited no follow-through amid ongoing Middle East frictions. With nine months until year-end resolution, traders see low escalation risk absent major crises like espionage accusations or sanctions disputes, though flashpoints in Ukraine, Gaza, or U.S.-China relations warrant monitoring.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 79.5% implied probability due to the absence of any verified diplomatic breakdowns leading to U.S. ambassador expulsions in recent months, despite heightened global tensions. President Trump's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 U.S. envoys from countries across Africa, Asia-Pacific, and elsewhere sparked concerns over retaliatory measures, but no host nations have declared U.S. diplomats persona non grata. Iran's March calls for Arab and European states to expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors elicited no follow-through amid ongoing Middle East frictions. With nine months until year-end resolution, traders see low escalation risk absent major crises like espionage accusations or sanctions disputes, though flashpoints in Ukraine, Gaza, or U.S.-China relations warrant monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$3Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 79.5% implied probability due to the absence of any verified diplomatic breakdowns leading to U.S. ambassador expulsions in recent months, despite heightened global tensions. President Trump's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 U.S. envoys from countries across Africa, Asia-Pacific, and elsewhere sparked concerns over retaliatory measures, but no host nations have declared U.S. diplomats persona non grata. Iran's March calls for Arab and European states to expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors elicited no follow-through amid ongoing Middle East frictions. With nine months until year-end resolution, traders see low escalation risk absent major crises like espionage accusations or sanctions disputes, though flashpoints in Ukraine, Gaza, or U.S.-China relations warrant monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 79.5% implied probability due to the absence of any verified diplomatic breakdowns leading to U.S. ambassador expulsions in recent months, despite heightened global tensions. President Trump's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 U.S. envoys from countries across Africa, Asia-Pacific, and elsewhere sparked concerns over retaliatory measures, but no host nations have declared U.S. diplomats persona non grata. Iran's March calls for Arab and European states to expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors elicited no follow-through amid ongoing Middle East frictions. With nine months until year-end resolution, traders see low escalation risk absent major crises like espionage accusations or sanctions disputes, though flashpoints in Ukraine, Gaza, or U.S.-China relations warrant monitoring.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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