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icon for Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ?
Politique·Israël

Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ?

icon for Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ?
Politique·Israël

Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ?

janv. 1, 2027

janv. 1, 2027

4 86.5%

6 6.3%

5 3.6%

8 1.3%

Polymarket

$7,416,501 Vol.

4 86.5%

6 6.3%

5 3.6%

8 1.3%

Polymarket

$7,416,501 Vol.

4

$1,235,096 Vol.

86%

5

$548,493 Vol.

4%

6

$651,961 Vol.

6%

7

$618,928 Vol.

1%

8

$530,793 Vol.

1%

9

$237,232 Vol.

1%

10

$401,009 Vol.

<1%

11

$137,841 Vol.

<1%

12

$228,055 Vol.

<1%

13

$353,402 Vol.

<1%

Titre d’élément de groupe : 14

$191,621 Vol.

<1%

15+

$193,562 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel’s military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure and positions in Lebanon, including recent tunnel demolitions and ground advances in the south, alongside targeted actions in Syria to disrupt threats near the Golan and border areas. A major joint campaign with the United States struck Iranian territory in February and March, followed by limited exchanges in June that ended in a temporary halt after U.S. diplomatic intervention. Traders assign 86.5% probability to exactly four countries struck overall, viewing the combination of Lebanon, Iran, and Syria as the core set with one additional limited theater possible before year-end. Ongoing ceasefire pressures, Israeli elections, and Iranian restraint amid U.S. talks have reduced escalation risks, keeping the probability of five or more countries low at under 15% combined.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,416,501
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel’s military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure and positions in Lebanon, including recent tunnel demolitions and ground advances in the south, alongside targeted actions in Syria to disrupt threats near the Golan and border areas. A major joint campaign with the United States struck Iranian territory in February and March, followed by limited exchanges in June that ended in a temporary halt after U.S. diplomatic intervention. Traders assign 86.5% probability to exactly four countries struck overall, viewing the combination of Lebanon, Iran, and Syria as the core set with one additional limited theater possible before year-end. Ongoing ceasefire pressures, Israeli elections, and Iranian restraint amid U.S. talks have reduced escalation risks, keeping the probability of five or more countries low at under 15% combined.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,416,501
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

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Questions fréquentes

« Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 16 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 4 » à 86%, suivi de « 6 » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 86¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 86% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » a généré $7.4 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 13, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? », parcourez les 16 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » est « 4 » à 86%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 86% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 6 » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Combien de pays différents Israël frappera-t-il en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.