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icon for Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ?
Monde·Israël

Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ?

icon for Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ?
Monde·Israël

Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ?

4-5 % 26%

3,25-4 % 25%

2,5-3,25 % 19%

<2,5 % 15%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

4-5 % 26%

3,25-4 % 25%

2,5-3,25 % 19%

<2,5 % 15%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

<2,5 %

$243 Vol.

15%

2,5-3,25 %

$78 Vol.

19%

3,25-4 %

$103 Vol.

25%

4-5 %

$29 Vol.

26%

5 %+

$106 Vol.

14%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF brigadier general Ofer Winter and launched in late August 2026, faces a tight race to surpass Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold in the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show its projected support fluctuating between roughly 2% and 5%, with some surveys placing it just above or below the line amid competition from established right-wing lists like Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit. Voter shifts after party list finalization, potential alliances, and turnout among nationalist and security-focused blocs contribute to the narrow spread. Scheduled Central Elections Committee rulings and Supreme Court reviews on candidate and list eligibility could further influence outcomes before election day.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$558
Date de fin
27 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Résolveur

0x69c47de9d...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF brigadier general Ofer Winter and launched in late August 2026, faces a tight race to surpass Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold in the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show its projected support fluctuating between roughly 2% and 5%, with some surveys placing it just above or below the line amid competition from established right-wing lists like Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit. Voter shifts after party list finalization, potential alliances, and turnout among nationalist and security-focused blocs contribute to the narrow spread. Scheduled Central Elections Committee rulings and Supreme Court reviews on candidate and list eligibility could further influence outcomes before election day.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$558
Date de fin
27 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Résolveur

0x69c47de9d...

Connexes

icon for Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

72%
icon for Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

62%
icon for Will Otzma Yehudit win 5.5-6.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Will Otzma Yehudit win 5.5-6.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

66%

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Questions fréquentes

« Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 2,5-3,25 % » à 31%, suivi de « 3,25-4 % » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 31¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 31% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 8, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ? », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ? » est « 2,5-3,25 % » à 31%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 31% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 3,25-4 % » à 31%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection en Israël : part de vote d'Amcha Yisrael ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.