Texas Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent polling and forecaster ratings reflecting a toss-up or lean-Republican environment. Talarico’s substantial fundraising edge—over $68 million raised compared to Paxton’s roughly $9 million—has supported aggressive advertising that highlights Paxton’s prior legal issues and primary attacks on former Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton consolidated Republican support after his May runoff victory with backing from President Trump, maintaining strength among core GOP voters in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Demographic divides, including Talarico’s advantages with Hispanic voters and independents in summer surveys, continue to balance structural Republican advantages and keep the implied probabilities near even. Late-cycle developments such as national party spending, candidate debates, or turnout efforts in battleground areas could shift the narrow margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections sénatoriales au Texas
Vainqueur des élections sénatoriales au Texas
$988,743 Vol.
$988,743 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
James Talarico (D)
51%
Ken Paxton (R)
50%
$988,743 Vol.
$988,743 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
James Talarico (D)
$451,458 Vol.
51%
Ken Paxton (R)
$537,285 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Texas Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent polling and forecaster ratings reflecting a toss-up or lean-Republican environment. Talarico’s substantial fundraising edge—over $68 million raised compared to Paxton’s roughly $9 million—has supported aggressive advertising that highlights Paxton’s prior legal issues and primary attacks on former Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton consolidated Republican support after his May runoff victory with backing from President Trump, maintaining strength among core GOP voters in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Demographic divides, including Talarico’s advantages with Hispanic voters and independents in summer surveys, continue to balance structural Republican advantages and keep the implied probabilities near even. Late-cycle developments such as national party spending, candidate debates, or turnout efforts in battleground areas could shift the narrow margin.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$988,743Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Texas Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent polling and forecaster ratings reflecting a toss-up or lean-Republican environment. Talarico’s substantial fundraising edge—over $68 million raised compared to Paxton’s roughly $9 million—has supported aggressive advertising that highlights Paxton’s prior legal issues and primary attacks on former Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton consolidated Republican support after his May runoff victory with backing from President Trump, maintaining strength among core GOP voters in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Demographic divides, including Talarico’s advantages with Hispanic voters and independents in summer surveys, continue to balance structural Republican advantages and keep the implied probabilities near even. Late-cycle developments such as national party spending, candidate debates, or turnout efforts in battleground areas could shift the narrow margin.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$988,743Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Texas Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent polling and forecaster ratings reflecting a toss-up or lean-Republican environment. Talarico’s substantial fundraising edge—over $68 million raised compared to Paxton’s roughly $9 million—has supported aggressive advertising that highlights Paxton’s prior legal issues and primary attacks on former Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton consolidated Republican support after his May runoff victory with backing from President Trump, maintaining strength among core GOP voters in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Demographic divides, including Talarico’s advantages with Hispanic voters and independents in summer surveys, continue to balance structural Republican advantages and keep the implied probabilities near even. Late-cycle developments such as national party spending, candidate debates, or turnout efforts in battleground areas could shift the narrow margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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