Ken Paxton's May 26 Republican primary runoff victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, positioned him as the GOP nominee in a state with a long record of Republican statewide wins. This underpins trader consensus around his 60.5% implied probability. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination and has pivoted to highlighting Paxton's prior legal issues and scandals, while recent late-May polling indicates a narrow contest. Lingering divisions among Cornyn primary voters, Talarico's rapid fundraising, and the potential spoiler effect from third-party candidates add uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election, though Texas's partisan composition continues to shape market positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections sénatoriales au Texas
$459,729 Vol.
$459,729 Vol.

Ken Paxton (R)
61%

James Talarico (D)
41%
$459,729 Vol.
$459,729 Vol.

Ken Paxton (R)
61%

James Talarico (D)
41%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ken Paxton's May 26 Republican primary runoff victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, positioned him as the GOP nominee in a state with a long record of Republican statewide wins. This underpins trader consensus around his 60.5% implied probability. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination and has pivoted to highlighting Paxton's prior legal issues and scandals, while recent late-May polling indicates a narrow contest. Lingering divisions among Cornyn primary voters, Talarico's rapid fundraising, and the potential spoiler effect from third-party candidates add uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election, though Texas's partisan composition continues to shape market positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes