Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Tina Smith, shows a structural Democratic advantage driven by the state's partisan voting index, consistent historical margins, and forecaster ratings of Likely Democratic across Cook, DDHQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan hold advantages in fundraising, endorsements, and general election polling leads of 3–7 points over top Republican Michele Tafoya, reflecting stronger party infrastructure and turnout patterns ahead of the August 11 primaries. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major disruptions. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a pronounced national Republican wave, elevated GOP turnout, or significant post-primary shifts in candidate positioning before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$34,723 Vol.
$34,723 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
94%
Républicain
7%
$34,723 Vol.
$34,723 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
$23,618 Vol.
94%
Républicain
$11,105 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Tina Smith, shows a structural Democratic advantage driven by the state's partisan voting index, consistent historical margins, and forecaster ratings of Likely Democratic across Cook, DDHQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan hold advantages in fundraising, endorsements, and general election polling leads of 3–7 points over top Republican Michele Tafoya, reflecting stronger party infrastructure and turnout patterns ahead of the August 11 primaries. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major disruptions. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a pronounced national Republican wave, elevated GOP turnout, or significant post-primary shifts in candidate positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$34,723Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Tina Smith, shows a structural Democratic advantage driven by the state's partisan voting index, consistent historical margins, and forecaster ratings of Likely Democratic across Cook, DDHQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan hold advantages in fundraising, endorsements, and general election polling leads of 3–7 points over top Republican Michele Tafoya, reflecting stronger party infrastructure and turnout patterns ahead of the August 11 primaries. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major disruptions. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a pronounced national Republican wave, elevated GOP turnout, or significant post-primary shifts in candidate positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$34,723Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Tina Smith, shows a structural Democratic advantage driven by the state's partisan voting index, consistent historical margins, and forecaster ratings of Likely Democratic across Cook, DDHQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan hold advantages in fundraising, endorsements, and general election polling leads of 3–7 points over top Republican Michele Tafoya, reflecting stronger party infrastructure and turnout patterns ahead of the August 11 primaries. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major disruptions. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a pronounced national Republican wave, elevated GOP turnout, or significant post-primary shifts in candidate positioning before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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