Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in Michigan’s August 4 Democratic primary has positioned him as the nominee against Republican Mike Rogers in the open-seat contest for the U.S. Senate. Traders assign El-Sayed a 59.5% implied probability, viewing his progressive base mobilization and strong performance in urban and minority voter groups as advantages in the battleground state, despite polls showing a toss-up with margins under 3 points. Rogers, a former congressman and Intelligence Committee chair who lost the 2024 Senate race by less than half a point, benefits from name recognition and Republican strength in rural areas. The race’s closeness, potential impact on Senate control, and absence of major late-breaking developments keep probabilities fluid ahead of the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections sénatoriales du Michigan
Vainqueur des élections sénatoriales du Michigan
$287,577 Vol.
$287,577 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
60%
Républicain
42%
$287,577 Vol.
$287,577 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
$148,749 Vol.
60%
Républicain
$138,828 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in Michigan’s August 4 Democratic primary has positioned him as the nominee against Republican Mike Rogers in the open-seat contest for the U.S. Senate. Traders assign El-Sayed a 59.5% implied probability, viewing his progressive base mobilization and strong performance in urban and minority voter groups as advantages in the battleground state, despite polls showing a toss-up with margins under 3 points. Rogers, a former congressman and Intelligence Committee chair who lost the 2024 Senate race by less than half a point, benefits from name recognition and Republican strength in rural areas. The race’s closeness, potential impact on Senate control, and absence of major late-breaking developments keep probabilities fluid ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$287,577Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in Michigan’s August 4 Democratic primary has positioned him as the nominee against Republican Mike Rogers in the open-seat contest for the U.S. Senate. Traders assign El-Sayed a 59.5% implied probability, viewing his progressive base mobilization and strong performance in urban and minority voter groups as advantages in the battleground state, despite polls showing a toss-up with margins under 3 points. Rogers, a former congressman and Intelligence Committee chair who lost the 2024 Senate race by less than half a point, benefits from name recognition and Republican strength in rural areas. The race’s closeness, potential impact on Senate control, and absence of major late-breaking developments keep probabilities fluid ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$287,577Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in Michigan’s August 4 Democratic primary has positioned him as the nominee against Republican Mike Rogers in the open-seat contest for the U.S. Senate. Traders assign El-Sayed a 59.5% implied probability, viewing his progressive base mobilization and strong performance in urban and minority voter groups as advantages in the battleground state, despite polls showing a toss-up with margins under 3 points. Rogers, a former congressman and Intelligence Committee chair who lost the 2024 Senate race by less than half a point, benefits from name recognition and Republican strength in rural areas. The race’s closeness, potential impact on Senate control, and absence of major late-breaking developments keep probabilities fluid ahead of the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes