Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the leading right-wing contender for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote after the Liberal Party formally nominated the Rio de Janeiro senator at its July convention. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys place him in the low-to-mid 30s, well ahead of other opposition figures, while incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds the top spot near 40 percent. Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and remaining candidates register in low single digits, reflecting a fragmented field and limited momentum outside the polarized Lula–Bolsonaro dynamic. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility has funneled conservative support behind his son, despite earlier audio-related scrutiny, reinforcing trader consensus on the current ordering.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 8.4%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.3%
Camilo Santana 1.2%
$4,380,747 Vol.
$4,380,747 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro
81%

Renan Santos
8%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%

Camilo Santana
1%

Fernando Haddad
1%

Ronaldo Caiado
1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
1%

Jair Bolsonaro
<1%

Romeu Zema
<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Aldo Rebelo
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%

Geraldo Alckmin
<1%

Eduardo Leite
<1%

Helder Barbalho
<1%

Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 8.4%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.3%
Camilo Santana 1.2%
$4,380,747 Vol.
$4,380,747 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro
81%

Renan Santos
8%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%

Camilo Santana
1%

Fernando Haddad
1%

Ronaldo Caiado
1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
1%

Jair Bolsonaro
<1%

Romeu Zema
<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Aldo Rebelo
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%

Geraldo Alckmin
<1%

Eduardo Leite
<1%

Helder Barbalho
<1%

Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the leading right-wing contender for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote after the Liberal Party formally nominated the Rio de Janeiro senator at its July convention. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys place him in the low-to-mid 30s, well ahead of other opposition figures, while incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds the top spot near 40 percent. Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and remaining candidates register in low single digits, reflecting a fragmented field and limited momentum outside the polarized Lula–Bolsonaro dynamic. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility has funneled conservative support behind his son, despite earlier audio-related scrutiny, reinforcing trader consensus on the current ordering.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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