Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming trader consensus as the projected second-place finisher in Brazil's 2026 presidential first round, driven by established name recognition and alignment within major opposition networks. This positioning reflects sustained party infrastructure and voter base continuity from prior cycles, outpacing alternatives such as Renan Santos. Lower-probability outcomes for figures including Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Fernando Haddad, and Ronaldo Caiado indicate limited near-term shifts in polling dynamics or coalition signals. With voting still months ahead, upcoming party conventions and candidate announcements within the resolution window could adjust these implied probabilities if new alliances form or eligibility rulings emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 10.8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.9%
Fernando Haddad 1.1%
$4,383,648 Vol.
$4,383,648 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
81%
Renan Santos
11%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 10.8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.9%
Fernando Haddad 1.1%
$4,383,648 Vol.
$4,383,648 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
81%
Renan Santos
11%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming trader consensus as the projected second-place finisher in Brazil's 2026 presidential first round, driven by established name recognition and alignment within major opposition networks. This positioning reflects sustained party infrastructure and voter base continuity from prior cycles, outpacing alternatives such as Renan Santos. Lower-probability outcomes for figures including Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Fernando Haddad, and Ronaldo Caiado indicate limited near-term shifts in polling dynamics or coalition signals. With voting still months ahead, upcoming party conventions and candidate announcements within the resolution window could adjust these implied probabilities if new alliances form or eligibility rulings emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remportera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Un candidat à la présidence gagnera-t-il dès le premier tour de l'élection au Brésil ?
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