Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling consistently places the Liberal Party senator well ahead of other challengers behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son, who polls in the low-to-mid 30s percent in first-round scenarios while Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and remaining candidates remain in the low single digits. Datafolha, Quaest and Nexus surveys from August show Lula at 38-41 percent and Flávio at 31-37 percent, preserving a wide gap that has narrowed only modestly in recent weeks without altering the ordering. This polling pattern underpins the market’s assessment of the likely first-round finishers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlávio Bolsonaro 89%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.8%
Renan Santos 3.7%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$5,248,816 Vol.
$5,248,816 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
89%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 89%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.8%
Renan Santos 3.7%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$5,248,816 Vol.
$5,248,816 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
89%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling consistently places the Liberal Party senator well ahead of other challengers behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son, who polls in the low-to-mid 30s percent in first-round scenarios while Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and remaining candidates remain in the low single digits. Datafolha, Quaest and Nexus surveys from August show Lula at 38-41 percent and Flávio at 31-37 percent, preserving a wide gap that has narrowed only modestly in recent weeks without altering the ordering. This polling pattern underpins the market’s assessment of the likely first-round finishers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Flavio Bolsonaro remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le District fédéral ?
Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en provenance du Paraná ?
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes