Recent polling consistently places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first place for the October 2026 first round, typically in the low-to-mid 40s, leaving the main opposition figure Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) as the clear second with support in the mid-to-high 30s. Other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail well behind in single digits or lower across multiple surveys released in July. Trader consensus for second place therefore reflects this established two-candidate dynamic, with limited evidence of recent polling shifts or major campaign events that would elevate an alternative contender ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro before the October vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 10.8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.8%
Fernando Haddad 1.0%
$4,383,813 Vol.
$4,383,813 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
81%
Renan Santos
11%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 10.8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.8%
Fernando Haddad 1.0%
$4,383,813 Vol.
$4,383,813 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$216,954 Vol.
81%
Renan Santos
$1,089,806 Vol.
11%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$143,320 Vol.
7%
Fernando Haddad
$686,825 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$340,949 Vol.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$120,753 Vol.
1%
Camilo Santana
$96,315 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$122,557 Vol.
<1%
Romeu Zema
$291,245 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$190,403 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$95,494 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$56,047 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$663,236 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$148,454 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$65,067 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$20,960 Vol.
<1%
Tereza Cristina
$35,428 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling consistently places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first place for the October 2026 first round, typically in the low-to-mid 40s, leaving the main opposition figure Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) as the clear second with support in the mid-to-high 30s. Other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail well behind in single digits or lower across multiple surveys released in July. Trader consensus for second place therefore reflects this established two-candidate dynamic, with limited evidence of recent polling shifts or major campaign events that would elevate an alternative contender ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$4,383,813Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling consistently places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first place for the October 2026 first round, typically in the low-to-mid 40s, leaving the main opposition figure Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) as the clear second with support in the mid-to-high 30s. Other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail well behind in single digits or lower across multiple surveys released in July. Trader consensus for second place therefore reflects this established two-candidate dynamic, with limited evidence of recent polling shifts or major campaign events that would elevate an alternative contender ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,383,813Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling consistently places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first place for the October 2026 first round, typically in the low-to-mid 40s, leaving the main opposition figure Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) as the clear second with support in the mid-to-high 30s. Other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail well behind in single digits or lower across multiple surveys released in July. Trader consensus for second place therefore reflects this established two-candidate dynamic, with limited evidence of recent polling shifts or major campaign events that would elevate an alternative contender ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro before the October vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
61%
Oui
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remportera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
66%
Oui
Un candidat à la présidence gagnera-t-il dès le premier tour de l'élection au Brésil ?
10%
Oui
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