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icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place

icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place

Flávio Bolsonaro 86%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.1%

Renan Santos 5.5%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$4,887,212 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 86%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.1%

Renan Santos 5.5%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$4,887,212 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$298,633 Vol.

86%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$265,238 Vol.

7%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,116,136 Vol.

6%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$364,079 Vol.

1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$126,945 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$148,914 Vol.

<1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$313,888 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$744,547 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$110,100 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$70,958 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$207,897 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$139,010 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$681,921 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$162,831 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$79,640 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$20,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$35,504 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote because recent polls consistently place him well ahead of other non-Lula candidates, typically in the low-to-mid 30s percent range behind the incumbent’s 38-41 percent. As the Liberal Party nominee and the candidate explicitly endorsed by his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro, he has consolidated most right-wing support while rivals such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. Minor setbacks from June audio leaks and a temporary family rift with Michelle Bolsonaro were followed by public reconciliation and continued polling stability through mid-August. The two-round system and fragmented opposition field reinforce trader expectations that Flávio will finish a clear second on election night.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,887,212
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote because recent polls consistently place him well ahead of other non-Lula candidates, typically in the low-to-mid 30s percent range behind the incumbent’s 38-41 percent. As the Liberal Party nominee and the candidate explicitly endorsed by his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro, he has consolidated most right-wing support while rivals such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. Minor setbacks from June audio leaks and a temporary family rift with Michelle Bolsonaro were followed by public reconciliation and continued polling stability through mid-August. The two-round system and fragmented opposition field reinforce trader expectations that Flávio will finish a clear second on election night.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,887,212
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Connexes

icon for Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

55%
Oui
icon for Rui Costa Pimenta remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le District fédéral ?

Rui Costa Pimenta remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le District fédéral ?

43%
Oui
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en provenance du Paraná ?

Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en provenance du Paraná ?

71%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 17 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 86%, suivi de « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 7%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 86¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 86% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » a généré $4.9 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 11, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place », parcourez les 17 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 86%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 86% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 7%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.