Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party maintains a dominant position in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, backed by consistent polling showing him trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly eight to twelve points while outpacing all other declared candidates. Recent Liberal Party and Mission Party conventions formalized Bolsonaro and Renan Santos as nominees, reinforcing the two-candidate structure visible in Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Quaest surveys through late July. A May-June audio scandal involving Bolsonaro temporarily elevated his rejection rating, yet it has not altered his standing as the clear opposition frontrunner. Lula’s stable 40-plus percent first-round support, combined with elevated undecided shares near 10 percent, leaves limited room for challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema to close the gap before the vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 8.4%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.3%
Camilo Santana 1.2%
$4,380,747 Vol.
$4,380,747 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
81%
Renan Santos
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Camilo Santana
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 8.4%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.3%
Camilo Santana 1.2%
$4,380,747 Vol.
$4,380,747 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
81%
Renan Santos
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Camilo Santana
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party maintains a dominant position in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, backed by consistent polling showing him trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly eight to twelve points while outpacing all other declared candidates. Recent Liberal Party and Mission Party conventions formalized Bolsonaro and Renan Santos as nominees, reinforcing the two-candidate structure visible in Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Quaest surveys through late July. A May-June audio scandal involving Bolsonaro temporarily elevated his rejection rating, yet it has not altered his standing as the clear opposition frontrunner. Lula’s stable 40-plus percent first-round support, combined with elevated undecided shares near 10 percent, leaves limited room for challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema to close the gap before the vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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