Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro holding clear first- and second-place positions, leaving third place contested among lower-polling candidates. Augusto Cury has gained ground in late-August and early-September surveys after televised interviews and debates, drawing support from younger and less-polarized voters and moving into or near third in several aggregates. Renan Santos maintains a base among digitally engaged younger cohorts tied to his prior activism, though his numbers have fluctuated relative to Cury. Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema register lower single-digit or sub-5 percent shares, while other listed names remain marginal. Traders appear to weigh these recent survey trends and campaign visibility when pricing the implied probability of finishing third.