**Flávio Bolsonaro’s role as the Liberal Party’s presidential nominee and leading challenger to incumbent President Lula in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round election underpins the roughly 68–77% trader consensus that he will appear in at least one televised debate by October 3.** As the main opposition figure, his campaign has emphasized national visibility through events such as the July convention launch and the August running-mate announcement, aligning with standard practices for major candidates seeking to reach undecided voters. Scheduled debates include an August 23 broadcast with invited participants from the leading tickets and a September 14 round, both falling well before the resolution deadline. No public statements or procedural barriers indicate an intention to decline these formats, supporting the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.