The fragmented field of roughly 16 candidates for Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats has produced evenly matched probabilities near 44-50 percent, with no single contender consolidating support ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling shows Benedita da Silva (PT) holding a lead in the low 30s, yet Marcelo Crivella, Márcio Canella, Pedro Paulo, and several PL-aligned names remain within striking distance as right-wing voters split across competing slates. Party conventions concluded only weeks ago, leaving limited time for endorsements or campaign consolidation to shift voter preferences. The two-seat structure and high undecided share further compress separation, so late polling movements, alliances, or turnout differences among key blocs could still reorder the finish.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCarlos Portinho 45%
Luiz Eugenio 45%
Marcelo Crivella 45%
Marcos Dias 45%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
Carlos Portinho
45%
Luiz Eugenio
45%
Marcelo Crivella
45%
Marcos Dias
45%
Michelly Xavier
45%
Monica Benicio
45%
Paula Falcão
45%
Vinicius Benevides
45%
Ó Clemente
44%
Pedro Paulo
44%
Waguinho
44%
Helio Secco
44%
Benedita da Silva
44%
Carlos Jordy
42%
André Monteiro
42%
Luciano Mattos
41%
Carlos Portinho 45%
Luiz Eugenio 45%
Marcelo Crivella 45%
Marcos Dias 45%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
Carlos Portinho
$0 Vol.
45%
Luiz Eugenio
$0 Vol.
45%
Marcelo Crivella
$0 Vol.
45%
Marcos Dias
$0 Vol.
45%
Michelly Xavier
$0 Vol.
45%
Monica Benicio
$0 Vol.
45%
Paula Falcão
$0 Vol.
45%
Vinicius Benevides
$0 Vol.
45%
Ó Clemente
$0 Vol.
44%
Pedro Paulo
$0 Vol.
44%
Waguinho
$0 Vol.
44%
Helio Secco
$0 Vol.
44%
Benedita da Silva
$0 Vol.
44%
Carlos Jordy
$0 Vol.
42%
André Monteiro
$0 Vol.
42%
Luciano Mattos
$0 Vol.
41%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented field of roughly 16 candidates for Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats has produced evenly matched probabilities near 44-50 percent, with no single contender consolidating support ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling shows Benedita da Silva (PT) holding a lead in the low 30s, yet Marcelo Crivella, Márcio Canella, Pedro Paulo, and several PL-aligned names remain within striking distance as right-wing voters split across competing slates. Party conventions concluded only weeks ago, leaving limited time for endorsements or campaign consolidation to shift voter preferences. The two-seat structure and high undecided share further compress separation, so late polling movements, alliances, or turnout differences among key blocs could still reorder the finish.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented field of roughly 16 candidates for Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats has produced evenly matched probabilities near 44-50 percent, with no single contender consolidating support ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling shows Benedita da Silva (PT) holding a lead in the low 30s, yet Marcelo Crivella, Márcio Canella, Pedro Paulo, and several PL-aligned names remain within striking distance as right-wing voters split across competing slates. Party conventions concluded only weeks ago, leaving limited time for endorsements or campaign consolidation to shift voter preferences. The two-seat structure and high undecided share further compress separation, so late polling movements, alliances, or turnout differences among key blocs could still reorder the finish.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The fragmented field of roughly 16 candidates for Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats has produced evenly matched probabilities near 44-50 percent, with no single contender consolidating support ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling shows Benedita da Silva (PT) holding a lead in the low 30s, yet Marcelo Crivella, Márcio Canella, Pedro Paulo, and several PL-aligned names remain within striking distance as right-wing voters split across competing slates. Party conventions concluded only weeks ago, leaving limited time for endorsements or campaign consolidation to shift voter preferences. The two-seat structure and high undecided share further compress separation, so late polling movements, alliances, or turnout differences among key blocs could still reorder the finish.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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