Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor from Republicanos, maintains a commanding lead in voter intention polls for the October 2026 first-round election, reflecting strong incumbency advantages and consistent support across key demographics. Recent surveys from Ideia, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas show him ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT) by 15–17 points, with first-round intentions ranging from 41% to over 50%. This positioning stems from de Freitas’s focus on state economic management and infrastructure priorities amid national left-right polarization with the Workers’ Party. Opposition fragmentation among left-leaning and centrist alternatives further limits challenges. Trader consensus on his re-election aligns with these polling trends, though factors such as unexpected turnout shifts, major scandals, or intensified campaign attacks could still alter first-round dynamics before October.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$286,969 Vol.
$286,969 Vol.
3 oct. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$286,969 Vol.
$286,969 Vol.
3 oct. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$129,705 Vol.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$47,839 Vol.
3%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$76,052 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor from Republicanos, maintains a commanding lead in voter intention polls for the October 2026 first-round election, reflecting strong incumbency advantages and consistent support across key demographics. Recent surveys from Ideia, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas show him ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT) by 15–17 points, with first-round intentions ranging from 41% to over 50%. This positioning stems from de Freitas’s focus on state economic management and infrastructure priorities amid national left-right polarization with the Workers’ Party. Opposition fragmentation among left-leaning and centrist alternatives further limits challenges. Trader consensus on his re-election aligns with these polling trends, though factors such as unexpected turnout shifts, major scandals, or intensified campaign attacks could still alter first-round dynamics before October.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$286,969Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor from Republicanos, maintains a commanding lead in voter intention polls for the October 2026 first-round election, reflecting strong incumbency advantages and consistent support across key demographics. Recent surveys from Ideia, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas show him ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT) by 15–17 points, with first-round intentions ranging from 41% to over 50%. This positioning stems from de Freitas’s focus on state economic management and infrastructure priorities amid national left-right polarization with the Workers’ Party. Opposition fragmentation among left-leaning and centrist alternatives further limits challenges. Trader consensus on his re-election aligns with these polling trends, though factors such as unexpected turnout shifts, major scandals, or intensified campaign attacks could still alter first-round dynamics before October.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$286,969Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor from Republicanos, maintains a commanding lead in voter intention polls for the October 2026 first-round election, reflecting strong incumbency advantages and consistent support across key demographics. Recent surveys from Ideia, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas show him ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT) by 15–17 points, with first-round intentions ranging from 41% to over 50%. This positioning stems from de Freitas’s focus on state economic management and infrastructure priorities amid national left-right polarization with the Workers’ Party. Opposition fragmentation among left-leaning and centrist alternatives further limits challenges. Trader consensus on his re-election aligns with these polling trends, though factors such as unexpected turnout shifts, major scandals, or intensified campaign attacks could still alter first-round dynamics before October.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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