The by-election for Lithuania's Northern Nalšia single-member Seimas constituency, set for 8 November 2026 with a possible runoff, follows the May death of incumbent Liberal Jevgenij Šuklin and draws a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates. Trader consensus reflects Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union at 43.5% as the narrow frontrunner, building on his strong 2024 second-round showing in the same area, while Social Democrat Vladislav Kondratovič trails at 26.5% and others such as Dalia Štraupaitė sit lower amid vote-splitting across parties. The tight implied probabilities stem from the district's competitive history, limited recent polling, and absence of decisive campaign momentum or endorsements that could consolidate support ahead of the first round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection partielle du district de Nalšia Nord
Vainqueur de l'élection partielle du district de Nalšia Nord
Gintautas Kindurys 53%
Vladislav Kondratovič 27%
Dalia Štraupaitė 13%
Viktor Voronin 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 nov. 2026
Gintautas Kindurys
53%
Vladislav Kondratovič
27%
Dalia Štraupaitė
13%
Viktor Voronin
12%
Nikolajus Lebedevičius
10%
Mėta Palauskaitė
9%
Antanas Šakalis
8%
Andrej Šildiajėv
8%
Ignotas Adomavičius
8%
Giedrius Dainys
8%
Maksimas Paukštė
7%
Gintautas Kindurys 53%
Vladislav Kondratovič 27%
Dalia Štraupaitė 13%
Viktor Voronin 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 nov. 2026
Gintautas Kindurys
$64 Vol.
53%
Vladislav Kondratovič
$205 Vol.
27%
Dalia Štraupaitė
$64 Vol.
13%
Viktor Voronin
$64 Vol.
12%
Nikolajus Lebedevičius
$64 Vol.
10%
Mėta Palauskaitė
$64 Vol.
9%
Antanas Šakalis
$64 Vol.
8%
Andrej Šildiajėv
$64 Vol.
8%
Ignotas Adomavičius
$64 Vol.
8%
Giedrius Dainys
$39 Vol.
8%
Maksimas Paukštė
$64 Vol.
7%
An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency.
If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).The by-election for Lithuania's Northern Nalšia single-member Seimas constituency, set for 8 November 2026 with a possible runoff, follows the May death of incumbent Liberal Jevgenij Šuklin and draws a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates. Trader consensus reflects Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union at 43.5% as the narrow frontrunner, building on his strong 2024 second-round showing in the same area, while Social Democrat Vladislav Kondratovič trails at 26.5% and others such as Dalia Štraupaitė sit lower amid vote-splitting across parties. The tight implied probabilities stem from the district's competitive history, limited recent polling, and absence of decisive campaign momentum or endorsements that could consolidate support ahead of the first round.
An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency.
If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).
This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency.
If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 23, 2026, 10:07 AM ET
Volume
$820Date de fin
8 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 23, 2026, 10:07 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47de9d...An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency.
If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).The by-election for Lithuania's Northern Nalšia single-member Seimas constituency, set for 8 November 2026 with a possible runoff, follows the May death of incumbent Liberal Jevgenij Šuklin and draws a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates. Trader consensus reflects Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union at 43.5% as the narrow frontrunner, building on his strong 2024 second-round showing in the same area, while Social Democrat Vladislav Kondratovič trails at 26.5% and others such as Dalia Štraupaitė sit lower amid vote-splitting across parties. The tight implied probabilities stem from the district's competitive history, limited recent polling, and absence of decisive campaign momentum or endorsements that could consolidate support ahead of the first round.
An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency.
If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).
This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency.
If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).
Volume
$820Date de fin
8 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 23, 2026, 10:07 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47de9d...The by-election for Lithuania's Northern Nalšia single-member Seimas constituency, set for 8 November 2026 with a possible runoff, follows the May death of incumbent Liberal Jevgenij Šuklin and draws a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates. Trader consensus reflects Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union at 43.5% as the narrow frontrunner, building on his strong 2024 second-round showing in the same area, while Social Democrat Vladislav Kondratovič trails at 26.5% and others such as Dalia Štraupaitė sit lower amid vote-splitting across parties. The tight implied probabilities stem from the district's competitive history, limited recent polling, and absence of decisive campaign momentum or endorsements that could consolidate support ahead of the first round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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