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Géopolitique·Israël

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Israël

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

45% chance
Polymarket
NEW
45% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability for no Israeli military action against an Iranian power plant by April 30, driven by de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrike on an Isfahan air defense site on April 19, which Iran downplayed as minor without retaliation. Absent new provocations from Tehran, such as additional missile barrages or proxy escalations via Hezbollah, Jerusalem has shifted focus to Gaza operations amid U.S. diplomatic pressure from President Biden to avoid strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure that could spike global oil prices or widen the conflict. No official Israeli announcements or intelligence leaks indicate plans targeting power plants like Bushehr, with the April 19 exchange viewed as calibrated closure to Iran's April 13-14 direct attack, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert actions could shift odds before the deadline.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability for no Israeli military action against an Iranian power plant by April 30, driven by de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrike on an Isfahan air defense site on April 19, which Iran downplayed as minor without retaliation. Absent new provocations from Tehran, such as additional missile barrages or proxy escalations via Hezbollah, Jerusalem has shifted focus to Gaza operations amid U.S. diplomatic pressure from President Biden to avoid strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure that could spike global oil prices or widen the conflict. No official Israeli announcements or intelligence leaks indicate plans targeting power plants like Bushehr, with the April 19 exchange viewed as calibrated closure to Iran's April 13-14 direct attack, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert actions could shift odds before the deadline.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability for no Israeli military action against an Iranian power plant by April 30, driven by de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrike on an Isfahan air defense site on April 19, which Iran downplayed as minor without retaliation. Absent new provocations from Tehran, such as additional missile barrages or proxy escalations via Hezbollah, Jerusalem has shifted focus to Gaza operations amid U.S. diplomatic pressure from President Biden to avoid strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure that could spike global oil prices or widen the conflict. No official Israeli announcements or intelligence leaks indicate plans targeting power plants like Bushehr, with the April 19 exchange viewed as calibrated closure to Iran's April 13-14 direct attack, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert actions could shift odds before the deadline.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55.5% implied probability for no Israeli military action against an Iranian power plant by April 30, driven by de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrike on an Isfahan air defense site on April 19, which Iran downplayed as minor without retaliation. Absent new provocations from Tehran, such as additional missile barrages or proxy escalations via Hezbollah, Jerusalem has shifted focus to Gaza operations amid U.S. diplomatic pressure from President Biden to avoid strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure that could spike global oil prices or widen the conflict. No official Israeli announcements or intelligence leaks indicate plans targeting power plants like Bushehr, with the April 19 exchange viewed as calibrated closure to Iran's April 13-14 direct attack, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert actions could shift odds before the deadline.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 45% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 45¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 45% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 27, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? » est de 45% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 45% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.