Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by sustained diplomatic détente following the 2023 China-brokered Saudi-Iran reconciliation, which has held amid recent Israel-Iran escalations. Over the past week, Saudi Arabia and UAE officials publicly urged restraint after Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes, prioritizing economic stability amid Brent crude prices hovering near $71 per barrel. Key factors include mutual trade growth exceeding $10 billion annually and U.S. pressure to avoid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that could spike energy costs 20-30%. Upcoming catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions in December and post-U.S. election policy shifts, with markets pricing in de-escalation as the baseline scenario.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGulf State military action against Iran by...?
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
16%
April 30
25%
$118 Vol.
April 15
$94 Vol.
16%
April 30
$24 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by sustained diplomatic détente following the 2023 China-brokered Saudi-Iran reconciliation, which has held amid recent Israel-Iran escalations. Over the past week, Saudi Arabia and UAE officials publicly urged restraint after Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes, prioritizing economic stability amid Brent crude prices hovering near $71 per barrel. Key factors include mutual trade growth exceeding $10 billion annually and U.S. pressure to avoid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that could spike energy costs 20-30%. Upcoming catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions in December and post-U.S. election policy shifts, with markets pricing in de-escalation as the baseline scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$118Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by sustained diplomatic détente following the 2023 China-brokered Saudi-Iran reconciliation, which has held amid recent Israel-Iran escalations. Over the past week, Saudi Arabia and UAE officials publicly urged restraint after Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes, prioritizing economic stability amid Brent crude prices hovering near $71 per barrel. Key factors include mutual trade growth exceeding $10 billion annually and U.S. pressure to avoid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that could spike energy costs 20-30%. Upcoming catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions in December and post-U.S. election policy shifts, with markets pricing in de-escalation as the baseline scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$118Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by sustained diplomatic détente following the 2023 China-brokered Saudi-Iran reconciliation, which has held amid recent Israel-Iran escalations. Over the past week, Saudi Arabia and UAE officials publicly urged restraint after Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes, prioritizing economic stability amid Brent crude prices hovering near $71 per barrel. Key factors include mutual trade growth exceeding $10 billion annually and U.S. pressure to avoid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that could spike energy costs 20-30%. Upcoming catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions in December and post-U.S. election policy shifts, with markets pricing in de-escalation as the baseline scenario.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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