A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Iran, and Israel, announced April 7, 2026, has halted airstrikes and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, creating a narrow window for diplomacy amid over a month of escalating conflict triggered by Israeli strikes and US demands for maritime access. Negotiations led by US Vice President JD Vance begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, addressing Iran's 10-point plan for sanctions relief and military withdrawal against US proposals for zero uranium enrichment, missile caps, and proxy funding curbs. Mutual violation accusations and ongoing regional strikes underscore deep divides over nuclear programs, proxies, and security guarantees, tempering trader consensus on a permanent peace deal anytime soon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAccord de paix permanent entre les États-Unis et l'Iran par... ?
Accord de paix permanent entre les États-Unis et l'Iran par... ?
NOUVEAU
$145,469 Vol.
22 avr. 2026
22 avril
11%
30 avril
14%
31 mai
31%
$145,469 Vol.
22 avril
$118,551 Vol.
11%
30 avril
$15,145 Vol.
14%
31 mai
$12,908 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Iran, and Israel, announced April 7, 2026, has halted airstrikes and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, creating a narrow window for diplomacy amid over a month of escalating conflict triggered by Israeli strikes and US demands for maritime access. Negotiations led by US Vice President JD Vance begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, addressing Iran's 10-point plan for sanctions relief and military withdrawal against US proposals for zero uranium enrichment, missile caps, and proxy funding curbs. Mutual violation accusations and ongoing regional strikes underscore deep divides over nuclear programs, proxies, and security guarantees, tempering trader consensus on a permanent peace deal anytime soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volume
$145,469Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Iran, and Israel, announced April 7, 2026, has halted airstrikes and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, creating a narrow window for diplomacy amid over a month of escalating conflict triggered by Israeli strikes and US demands for maritime access. Negotiations led by US Vice President JD Vance begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, addressing Iran's 10-point plan for sanctions relief and military withdrawal against US proposals for zero uranium enrichment, missile caps, and proxy funding curbs. Mutual violation accusations and ongoing regional strikes underscore deep divides over nuclear programs, proxies, and security guarantees, tempering trader consensus on a permanent peace deal anytime soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$145,469Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Iran, and Israel, announced April 7, 2026, has halted airstrikes and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, creating a narrow window for diplomacy amid over a month of escalating conflict triggered by Israeli strikes and US demands for maritime access. Negotiations led by US Vice President JD Vance begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, addressing Iran's 10-point plan for sanctions relief and military withdrawal against US proposals for zero uranium enrichment, missile caps, and proxy funding curbs. Mutual violation accusations and ongoing regional strikes underscore deep divides over nuclear programs, proxies, and security guarantees, tempering trader consensus on a permanent peace deal anytime soon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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