Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike that also wounded Mojtaba. Since his March appointment by the Assembly of Experts, he has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances, citing security risks amid the ongoing conflict. Regime sources describe him as recovered and directing decisions from a secure location inside the country, while independent reports and official rumors highlight persistent questions about his health, mobility, and even survival. Analysts note a shift toward more collective decision-making involving the IRGC and other institutions. These dynamics, combined with active hostilities, economic strain, and unverified claims of injury or limited functionality, shape trader assessments of whether external threats or internal pressures could prompt departure before any resolution deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$117,848 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre
2%
31 décembre
4%
$117,848 Vol.
31 octobre
$119 Vol.
2%
31 décembre
$816 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike that also wounded Mojtaba. Since his March appointment by the Assembly of Experts, he has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances, citing security risks amid the ongoing conflict. Regime sources describe him as recovered and directing decisions from a secure location inside the country, while independent reports and official rumors highlight persistent questions about his health, mobility, and even survival. Analysts note a shift toward more collective decision-making involving the IRGC and other institutions. These dynamics, combined with active hostilities, economic strain, and unverified claims of injury or limited functionality, shape trader assessments of whether external threats or internal pressures could prompt departure before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$117,848Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike that also wounded Mojtaba. Since his March appointment by the Assembly of Experts, he has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances, citing security risks amid the ongoing conflict. Regime sources describe him as recovered and directing decisions from a secure location inside the country, while independent reports and official rumors highlight persistent questions about his health, mobility, and even survival. Analysts note a shift toward more collective decision-making involving the IRGC and other institutions. These dynamics, combined with active hostilities, economic strain, and unverified claims of injury or limited functionality, shape trader assessments of whether external threats or internal pressures could prompt departure before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,848Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike that also wounded Mojtaba. Since his March appointment by the Assembly of Experts, he has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances, citing security risks amid the ongoing conflict. Regime sources describe him as recovered and directing decisions from a secure location inside the country, while independent reports and official rumors highlight persistent questions about his health, mobility, and even survival. Analysts note a shift toward more collective decision-making involving the IRGC and other institutions. These dynamics, combined with active hostilities, economic strain, and unverified claims of injury or limited functionality, shape trader assessments of whether external threats or internal pressures could prompt departure before any resolution deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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