Recent reports of Mojtaba Khamenei’s possible departure from Iran have intensified trader focus on his low public profile and physical condition following his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Absent from his father’s July funeral and communicating only via written statements, the new leader faces ongoing speculation about severe injuries sustained in the initial attacks and reliance on IRGC figures such as Ahmad Vahidi. Israeli sources cited in mid-July claimed he had left the country, possibly for Russia, while Iranian and Israeli officials rejected the claims, asserting he remains inside Iran but concealed amid internal power dynamics and active conflict. These unverified developments, alongside succession mechanics under Article 111 and IRGC influence, shape assessments of whether credible evidence of an exit will emerge before the resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$98,425 Vol.
31 août 2026
31 août
2%
$98,425 Vol.
31 août
$56,523 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent reports of Mojtaba Khamenei’s possible departure from Iran have intensified trader focus on his low public profile and physical condition following his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Absent from his father’s July funeral and communicating only via written statements, the new leader faces ongoing speculation about severe injuries sustained in the initial attacks and reliance on IRGC figures such as Ahmad Vahidi. Israeli sources cited in mid-July claimed he had left the country, possibly for Russia, while Iranian and Israeli officials rejected the claims, asserting he remains inside Iran but concealed amid internal power dynamics and active conflict. These unverified developments, alongside succession mechanics under Article 111 and IRGC influence, shape assessments of whether credible evidence of an exit will emerge before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$98,425Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent reports of Mojtaba Khamenei’s possible departure from Iran have intensified trader focus on his low public profile and physical condition following his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Absent from his father’s July funeral and communicating only via written statements, the new leader faces ongoing speculation about severe injuries sustained in the initial attacks and reliance on IRGC figures such as Ahmad Vahidi. Israeli sources cited in mid-July claimed he had left the country, possibly for Russia, while Iranian and Israeli officials rejected the claims, asserting he remains inside Iran but concealed amid internal power dynamics and active conflict. These unverified developments, alongside succession mechanics under Article 111 and IRGC influence, shape assessments of whether credible evidence of an exit will emerge before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$98,425Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports of Mojtaba Khamenei’s possible departure from Iran have intensified trader focus on his low public profile and physical condition following his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Absent from his father’s July funeral and communicating only via written statements, the new leader faces ongoing speculation about severe injuries sustained in the initial attacks and reliance on IRGC figures such as Ahmad Vahidi. Israeli sources cited in mid-July claimed he had left the country, possibly for Russia, while Iranian and Israeli officials rejected the claims, asserting he remains inside Iran but concealed amid internal power dynamics and active conflict. These unverified developments, alongside succession mechanics under Article 111 and IRGC influence, shape assessments of whether credible evidence of an exit will emerge before the resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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