President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, directing the Navy to enforce it immediately after US-Iran peace talks collapsed without agreement, targeting Iranian ports and coastal areas to counter Tehran's de facto restrictions. Now in its third day as of April 15, the measure has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, heightened global supply disruption fears, and prompted warnings from IMF officials on economic shocks. Traders assess lifting probabilities based on diplomatic signals, with no concessions from Iran yet amid mutual escalation rhetoric; upcoming naval encounters, multilateral negotiations, or Iranian retaliation could accelerate de-escalation or prolong the standoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTrump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
$633,366 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
April 15
3%
April 17
10%
April 19
18%
April 30
59%
31 mai
80%
$633,366 Vol.
April 15
$191,504 Vol.
3%
April 17
$66,701 Vol.
10%
April 19
$95,857 Vol.
18%
April 30
$68,630 Vol.
59%
31 mai
$7,307 Vol.
80%
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, directing the Navy to enforce it immediately after US-Iran peace talks collapsed without agreement, targeting Iranian ports and coastal areas to counter Tehran's de facto restrictions. Now in its third day as of April 15, the measure has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, heightened global supply disruption fears, and prompted warnings from IMF officials on economic shocks. Traders assess lifting probabilities based on diplomatic signals, with no concessions from Iran yet amid mutual escalation rhetoric; upcoming naval encounters, multilateral negotiations, or Iranian retaliation could accelerate de-escalation or prolong the standoff.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$633,366Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, directing the Navy to enforce it immediately after US-Iran peace talks collapsed without agreement, targeting Iranian ports and coastal areas to counter Tehran's de facto restrictions. Now in its third day as of April 15, the measure has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, heightened global supply disruption fears, and prompted warnings from IMF officials on economic shocks. Traders assess lifting probabilities based on diplomatic signals, with no concessions from Iran yet amid mutual escalation rhetoric; upcoming naval encounters, multilateral negotiations, or Iranian retaliation could accelerate de-escalation or prolong the standoff.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$633,366Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, directing the Navy to enforce it immediately after US-Iran peace talks collapsed without agreement, targeting Iranian ports and coastal areas to counter Tehran's de facto restrictions. Now in its third day as of April 15, the measure has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, heightened global supply disruption fears, and prompted warnings from IMF officials on economic shocks. Traders assess lifting probabilities based on diplomatic signals, with no concessions from Iran yet amid mutual escalation rhetoric; upcoming naval encounters, multilateral negotiations, or Iranian retaliation could accelerate de-escalation or prolong the standoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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