Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 38% implied probability, edging out 8-11 ships at 28.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on sustained low volumes amid US-Iran tensions. Recent daily transits, per Windward and MarineTraffic data, averaged 10-14 ships in early April—up from March's single digits via Iranian selective vetting and escorted corridors mostly for linked tankers—but dipped to 3-9 on April 14 following US blockade enforcement and mine clearance operations. Competitive dynamics hinge on fragile ceasefire stability versus escalation risks, with underreported dark fleet activity and stalled humanitarian talks as key swing factors; normalization to pre-crisis 130+ levels remains improbable absent major diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
4-7 35%
8-11 29%
<4 11%
12-15 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 avr. 2026
<4
11%
4-7
35%
8-11
29%
12-15
9%
16-19
6%
20+
9%
4-7 35%
8-11 29%
<4 11%
12-15 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 avr. 2026
<4
$1,017 Vol.
11%
4-7
$550 Vol.
35%
8-11
$354 Vol.
29%
12-15
$416 Vol.
9%
16-19
$427 Vol.
6%
20+
$2,613 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 38% implied probability, edging out 8-11 ships at 28.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on sustained low volumes amid US-Iran tensions. Recent daily transits, per Windward and MarineTraffic data, averaged 10-14 ships in early April—up from March's single digits via Iranian selective vetting and escorted corridors mostly for linked tankers—but dipped to 3-9 on April 14 following US blockade enforcement and mine clearance operations. Competitive dynamics hinge on fragile ceasefire stability versus escalation risks, with underreported dark fleet activity and stalled humanitarian talks as key swing factors; normalization to pre-crisis 130+ levels remains improbable absent major diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Marché ouvert : Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volume
$5,378Date de fin
19 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 38% implied probability, edging out 8-11 ships at 28.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on sustained low volumes amid US-Iran tensions. Recent daily transits, per Windward and MarineTraffic data, averaged 10-14 ships in early April—up from March's single digits via Iranian selective vetting and escorted corridors mostly for linked tankers—but dipped to 3-9 on April 14 following US blockade enforcement and mine clearance operations. Competitive dynamics hinge on fragile ceasefire stability versus escalation risks, with underreported dark fleet activity and stalled humanitarian talks as key swing factors; normalization to pre-crisis 130+ levels remains improbable absent major diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Volume
$5,378Date de fin
19 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 38% implied probability, edging out 8-11 ships at 28.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on sustained low volumes amid US-Iran tensions. Recent daily transits, per Windward and MarineTraffic data, averaged 10-14 ships in early April—up from March's single digits via Iranian selective vetting and escorted corridors mostly for linked tankers—but dipped to 3-9 on April 14 following US blockade enforcement and mine clearance operations. Competitive dynamics hinge on fragile ceasefire stability versus escalation risks, with underreported dark fleet activity and stalled humanitarian talks as key swing factors; normalization to pre-crisis 130+ levels remains improbable absent major diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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