Iranian lawmakers have repeatedly proposed withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2026, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and arguing that the NPT offers no protection or benefits. These motions, including submissions in March and August, remain at the parliamentary level without advancing to official government policy or Supreme National Security Council action. Tehran has instead suspended IAEA inspections and reporting since July 2025 following legislation signed by President Pezeshkian, creating substantial opacity over its nuclear activities while retaining formal NPT membership. Officials have described this approach as a calculated alternative to exit, preserving leverage in diplomacy and avoiding the legal and strategic signal of withdrawal under Article X. Ongoing MOU talks with the U.S. and internal debates showing no elite consensus further support trader expectations that formal exit before 2027 is unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
Oui
9% chance
$393,486 Vol.
$393,486 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
9% chance
$393,486 Vol.
$393,486 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers have repeatedly proposed withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2026, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and arguing that the NPT offers no protection or benefits. These motions, including submissions in March and August, remain at the parliamentary level without advancing to official government policy or Supreme National Security Council action. Tehran has instead suspended IAEA inspections and reporting since July 2025 following legislation signed by President Pezeshkian, creating substantial opacity over its nuclear activities while retaining formal NPT membership. Officials have described this approach as a calculated alternative to exit, preserving leverage in diplomacy and avoiding the legal and strategic signal of withdrawal under Article X. Ongoing MOU talks with the U.S. and internal debates showing no elite consensus further support trader expectations that formal exit before 2027 is unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$393,486Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers have repeatedly proposed withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2026, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and arguing that the NPT offers no protection or benefits. These motions, including submissions in March and August, remain at the parliamentary level without advancing to official government policy or Supreme National Security Council action. Tehran has instead suspended IAEA inspections and reporting since July 2025 following legislation signed by President Pezeshkian, creating substantial opacity over its nuclear activities while retaining formal NPT membership. Officials have described this approach as a calculated alternative to exit, preserving leverage in diplomacy and avoiding the legal and strategic signal of withdrawal under Article X. Ongoing MOU talks with the U.S. and internal debates showing no elite consensus further support trader expectations that formal exit before 2027 is unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$393,486Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Iranian lawmakers have repeatedly proposed withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2026, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and arguing that the NPT offers no protection or benefits. These motions, including submissions in March and August, remain at the parliamentary level without advancing to official government policy or Supreme National Security Council action. Tehran has instead suspended IAEA inspections and reporting since July 2025 following legislation signed by President Pezeshkian, creating substantial opacity over its nuclear activities while retaining formal NPT membership. Officials have described this approach as a calculated alternative to exit, preserving leverage in diplomacy and avoiding the legal and strategic signal of withdrawal under Article X. Ongoing MOU talks with the U.S. and internal debates showing no elite consensus further support trader expectations that formal exit before 2027 is unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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