Recent US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains unchanged at 9-12 months to produce a weapon, despite ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since February that inflicted only limited additional damage to enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow. This reflects trader consensus pricing "No" at 91.5%, as prior Operation Midnight Hammer strikes in 2025 extended the timeline from 3-6 months, with IAEA unable to verify 440kg of 60% highly enriched uranium stockpiled underground. Scientist assassinations, sanctions, and US-Iran de-escalation talks further deter a test before 2027, though unmonitored stocks and policy shifts pose residual risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains unchanged at 9-12 months to produce a weapon, despite ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since February that inflicted only limited additional damage to enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow. This reflects trader consensus pricing "No" at 91.5%, as prior Operation Midnight Hammer strikes in 2025 extended the timeline from 3-6 months, with IAEA unable to verify 440kg of 60% highly enriched uranium stockpiled underground. Scientist assassinations, sanctions, and US-Iran de-escalation talks further deter a test before 2027, though unmonitored stocks and policy shifts pose residual risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$189,905Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains unchanged at 9-12 months to produce a weapon, despite ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since February that inflicted only limited additional damage to enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow. This reflects trader consensus pricing "No" at 91.5%, as prior Operation Midnight Hammer strikes in 2025 extended the timeline from 3-6 months, with IAEA unable to verify 440kg of 60% highly enriched uranium stockpiled underground. Scientist assassinations, sanctions, and US-Iran de-escalation talks further deter a test before 2027, though unmonitored stocks and policy shifts pose residual risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189,905Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains unchanged at 9-12 months to produce a weapon, despite ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes since February that inflicted only limited additional damage to enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow. This reflects trader consensus pricing "No" at 91.5%, as prior Operation Midnight Hammer strikes in 2025 extended the timeline from 3-6 months, with IAEA unable to verify 440kg of 60% highly enriched uranium stockpiled underground. Scientist assassinations, sanctions, and US-Iran de-escalation talks further deter a test before 2027, though unmonitored stocks and policy shifts pose residual risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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