Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war, Iran has experienced intensified factional tensions between hardline elements, IRGC commanders, and pragmatic officials amid leadership succession questions. Protests from late 2025 into early 2026, triggered by economic collapse and inflation, were met with severe security crackdowns that restored short-term control but left underlying instability. Traders assign low probability to a widely reported coup attempt by year-end because no such event has materialized despite the power vacuum, regime change rhetoric from external actors, and internal accusations of plotting. Key variables include IRGC cohesion, any new succession announcements, and whether renewed protests or diplomatic shifts could trigger elite fractures before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,122,471 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre
9%
$2,122,471 Vol.
31 décembre
$81,245 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war, Iran has experienced intensified factional tensions between hardline elements, IRGC commanders, and pragmatic officials amid leadership succession questions. Protests from late 2025 into early 2026, triggered by economic collapse and inflation, were met with severe security crackdowns that restored short-term control but left underlying instability. Traders assign low probability to a widely reported coup attempt by year-end because no such event has materialized despite the power vacuum, regime change rhetoric from external actors, and internal accusations of plotting. Key variables include IRGC cohesion, any new succession announcements, and whether renewed protests or diplomatic shifts could trigger elite fractures before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,471Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war, Iran has experienced intensified factional tensions between hardline elements, IRGC commanders, and pragmatic officials amid leadership succession questions. Protests from late 2025 into early 2026, triggered by economic collapse and inflation, were met with severe security crackdowns that restored short-term control but left underlying instability. Traders assign low probability to a widely reported coup attempt by year-end because no such event has materialized despite the power vacuum, regime change rhetoric from external actors, and internal accusations of plotting. Key variables include IRGC cohesion, any new succession announcements, and whether renewed protests or diplomatic shifts could trigger elite fractures before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,471Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war, Iran has experienced intensified factional tensions between hardline elements, IRGC commanders, and pragmatic officials amid leadership succession questions. Protests from late 2025 into early 2026, triggered by economic collapse and inflation, were met with severe security crackdowns that restored short-term control but left underlying instability. Traders assign low probability to a widely reported coup attempt by year-end because no such event has materialized despite the power vacuum, regime change rhetoric from external actors, and internal accusations of plotting. Key variables include IRGC cohesion, any new succession announcements, and whether renewed protests or diplomatic shifts could trigger elite fractures before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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