Putin's regime has maintained firm control through intensified security measures, including expanded FSB counterintelligence operations, National Guard reinforcements, and heightened personal protections amid elite impatience and war-related economic strains. Speculation about vulnerabilities from Ukrainian strikes, fuel shortages, declining approval ratings near 65-69%, and isolated elite criticism has persisted but produced no coordinated military or political action, consistent with patterns since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Analysts note the destruction of organized opposition, loyalty enforcement among siloviki, and absence of viable challengers as key stabilizers. Upcoming September 2026 Duma elections and ongoing Ukraine conflict have not triggered the institutional fractures required for an attempt, supporting trader consensus on low probability through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour6% chance
$129,234 Vol.
$129,234 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
6% chance
$129,234 Vol.
$129,234 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's regime has maintained firm control through intensified security measures, including expanded FSB counterintelligence operations, National Guard reinforcements, and heightened personal protections amid elite impatience and war-related economic strains. Speculation about vulnerabilities from Ukrainian strikes, fuel shortages, declining approval ratings near 65-69%, and isolated elite criticism has persisted but produced no coordinated military or political action, consistent with patterns since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Analysts note the destruction of organized opposition, loyalty enforcement among siloviki, and absence of viable challengers as key stabilizers. Upcoming September 2026 Duma elections and ongoing Ukraine conflict have not triggered the institutional fractures required for an attempt, supporting trader consensus on low probability through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$129,234Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's regime has maintained firm control through intensified security measures, including expanded FSB counterintelligence operations, National Guard reinforcements, and heightened personal protections amid elite impatience and war-related economic strains. Speculation about vulnerabilities from Ukrainian strikes, fuel shortages, declining approval ratings near 65-69%, and isolated elite criticism has persisted but produced no coordinated military or political action, consistent with patterns since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Analysts note the destruction of organized opposition, loyalty enforcement among siloviki, and absence of viable challengers as key stabilizers. Upcoming September 2026 Duma elections and ongoing Ukraine conflict have not triggered the institutional fractures required for an attempt, supporting trader consensus on low probability through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$129,234Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Putin's regime has maintained firm control through intensified security measures, including expanded FSB counterintelligence operations, National Guard reinforcements, and heightened personal protections amid elite impatience and war-related economic strains. Speculation about vulnerabilities from Ukrainian strikes, fuel shortages, declining approval ratings near 65-69%, and isolated elite criticism has persisted but produced no coordinated military or political action, consistent with patterns since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Analysts note the destruction of organized opposition, loyalty enforcement among siloviki, and absence of viable challengers as key stabilizers. Upcoming September 2026 Duma elections and ongoing Ukraine conflict have not triggered the institutional fractures required for an attempt, supporting trader consensus on low probability through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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