Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated PLA leadership purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior vice chairman General Zhang Youxia on discipline violations, has reinforced trader views of regime stability. Official actions frame these as anti-corruption measures targeting loyalty concerns, with no confirmed coup attempts or organized resistance emerging despite circulating rumors on fringe platforms. China's centralized party-military structure, extensive internal security apparatus, and absence of viable opposition factions contribute to the 97.2% implied probability against an attempt before 2027. While elite fractures could theoretically arise from health developments, economic shocks, or succession uncertainties ahead of the next party congress, verifiable indicators continue to show effective top-down control.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$139,532 Vol.
$139,532 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$139,532 Vol.
$139,532 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated PLA leadership purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior vice chairman General Zhang Youxia on discipline violations, has reinforced trader views of regime stability. Official actions frame these as anti-corruption measures targeting loyalty concerns, with no confirmed coup attempts or organized resistance emerging despite circulating rumors on fringe platforms. China's centralized party-military structure, extensive internal security apparatus, and absence of viable opposition factions contribute to the 97.2% implied probability against an attempt before 2027. While elite fractures could theoretically arise from health developments, economic shocks, or succession uncertainties ahead of the next party congress, verifiable indicators continue to show effective top-down control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$139,532Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated PLA leadership purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior vice chairman General Zhang Youxia on discipline violations, has reinforced trader views of regime stability. Official actions frame these as anti-corruption measures targeting loyalty concerns, with no confirmed coup attempts or organized resistance emerging despite circulating rumors on fringe platforms. China's centralized party-military structure, extensive internal security apparatus, and absence of viable opposition factions contribute to the 97.2% implied probability against an attempt before 2027. While elite fractures could theoretically arise from health developments, economic shocks, or succession uncertainties ahead of the next party congress, verifiable indicators continue to show effective top-down control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$139,532Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated PLA leadership purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior vice chairman General Zhang Youxia on discipline violations, has reinforced trader views of regime stability. Official actions frame these as anti-corruption measures targeting loyalty concerns, with no confirmed coup attempts or organized resistance emerging despite circulating rumors on fringe platforms. China's centralized party-military structure, extensive internal security apparatus, and absence of viable opposition factions contribute to the 97.2% implied probability against an attempt before 2027. While elite fractures could theoretically arise from health developments, economic shocks, or succession uncertainties ahead of the next party congress, verifiable indicators continue to show effective top-down control.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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