Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of power since the 2022 Party Congress, including loyal appointments across the Politburo, Central Military Commission, and state apparatus, underpins trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Recent developments such as the March 2026 National People’s Congress, military leadership adjustments focused on corruption probes, and emphasis on party discipline in the 15th Five-Year Plan reinforce centralized control and limit elite fractures. The absence of organized opposition or credible signals of internal challenges further supports the 97.7% implied probability on “No.” While low-probability triggers like a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic shocks fracturing elite cohesion, or unexpected external pressures could theoretically alter dynamics ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, current institutional safeguards and managed succession processes make such shifts unlikely within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$138,570 Vol.
$138,570 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$138,570 Vol.
$138,570 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of power since the 2022 Party Congress, including loyal appointments across the Politburo, Central Military Commission, and state apparatus, underpins trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Recent developments such as the March 2026 National People’s Congress, military leadership adjustments focused on corruption probes, and emphasis on party discipline in the 15th Five-Year Plan reinforce centralized control and limit elite fractures. The absence of organized opposition or credible signals of internal challenges further supports the 97.7% implied probability on “No.” While low-probability triggers like a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic shocks fracturing elite cohesion, or unexpected external pressures could theoretically alter dynamics ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, current institutional safeguards and managed succession processes make such shifts unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$138,570Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of power since the 2022 Party Congress, including loyal appointments across the Politburo, Central Military Commission, and state apparatus, underpins trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Recent developments such as the March 2026 National People’s Congress, military leadership adjustments focused on corruption probes, and emphasis on party discipline in the 15th Five-Year Plan reinforce centralized control and limit elite fractures. The absence of organized opposition or credible signals of internal challenges further supports the 97.7% implied probability on “No.” While low-probability triggers like a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic shocks fracturing elite cohesion, or unexpected external pressures could theoretically alter dynamics ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, current institutional safeguards and managed succession processes make such shifts unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$138,570Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive consolidation of power since the 2022 Party Congress, including loyal appointments across the Politburo, Central Military Commission, and state apparatus, underpins trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Recent developments such as the March 2026 National People’s Congress, military leadership adjustments focused on corruption probes, and emphasis on party discipline in the 15th Five-Year Plan reinforce centralized control and limit elite fractures. The absence of organized opposition or credible signals of internal challenges further supports the 97.7% implied probability on “No.” While low-probability triggers like a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic shocks fracturing elite cohesion, or unexpected external pressures could theoretically alter dynamics ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, current institutional safeguards and managed succession processes make such shifts unlikely within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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