Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, most recently targeting senior generals including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia in January 2026 on corruption charges. These moves have eliminated potential rivals without triggering resistance or factional backlash, consistent with patterns since 2012. No verifiable coup attempt has emerged in the current resolution window despite unconfirmed rumors from fringe outlets. Traders price the “No” outcome at 97.2% because structural barriers—including centralized command, surveillance apparatus, and elite incentives—make coordinated challenges highly improbable. Late developments such as acute health crises for top leaders or severe economic shocks fracturing elite unity remain the primary variables that could alter probabilities before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$133,621 Vol.
$133,621 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$133,621 Vol.
$133,621 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, most recently targeting senior generals including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia in January 2026 on corruption charges. These moves have eliminated potential rivals without triggering resistance or factional backlash, consistent with patterns since 2012. No verifiable coup attempt has emerged in the current resolution window despite unconfirmed rumors from fringe outlets. Traders price the “No” outcome at 97.2% because structural barriers—including centralized command, surveillance apparatus, and elite incentives—make coordinated challenges highly improbable. Late developments such as acute health crises for top leaders or severe economic shocks fracturing elite unity remain the primary variables that could alter probabilities before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$133,621Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, most recently targeting senior generals including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia in January 2026 on corruption charges. These moves have eliminated potential rivals without triggering resistance or factional backlash, consistent with patterns since 2012. No verifiable coup attempt has emerged in the current resolution window despite unconfirmed rumors from fringe outlets. Traders price the “No” outcome at 97.2% because structural barriers—including centralized command, surveillance apparatus, and elite incentives—make coordinated challenges highly improbable. Late developments such as acute health crises for top leaders or severe economic shocks fracturing elite unity remain the primary variables that could alter probabilities before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$133,621Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, most recently targeting senior generals including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia in January 2026 on corruption charges. These moves have eliminated potential rivals without triggering resistance or factional backlash, consistent with patterns since 2012. No verifiable coup attempt has emerged in the current resolution window despite unconfirmed rumors from fringe outlets. Traders price the “No” outcome at 97.2% because structural barriers—including centralized command, surveillance apparatus, and elite incentives—make coordinated challenges highly improbable. Late developments such as acute health crises for top leaders or severe economic shocks fracturing elite unity remain the primary variables that could alter probabilities before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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