Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 removal of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have eliminated high-level rivals and reinforced centralized command. These actions, part of a broader campaign that has sidelined over 100 top generals since 2022, underscore the Chinese Communist Party’s institutional mechanisms for managing elite competition without visible fractures. Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because the opaque system has repeatedly neutralized challenges through anti-corruption drives and loyalty tests, with no verified signs of organized opposition capable of execution. Unforeseen variables such as Xi’s health decline, severe economic shocks, or external crises could still create openings for factional maneuvering, though historical precedent and current power structures make such shifts improbable within the timeframe.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$133,704 Vol.
$133,704 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$133,704 Vol.
$133,704 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 removal of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have eliminated high-level rivals and reinforced centralized command. These actions, part of a broader campaign that has sidelined over 100 top generals since 2022, underscore the Chinese Communist Party’s institutional mechanisms for managing elite competition without visible fractures. Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because the opaque system has repeatedly neutralized challenges through anti-corruption drives and loyalty tests, with no verified signs of organized opposition capable of execution. Unforeseen variables such as Xi’s health decline, severe economic shocks, or external crises could still create openings for factional maneuvering, though historical precedent and current power structures make such shifts improbable within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$133,704Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 removal of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have eliminated high-level rivals and reinforced centralized command. These actions, part of a broader campaign that has sidelined over 100 top generals since 2022, underscore the Chinese Communist Party’s institutional mechanisms for managing elite competition without visible fractures. Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because the opaque system has repeatedly neutralized challenges through anti-corruption drives and loyalty tests, with no verified signs of organized opposition capable of execution. Unforeseen variables such as Xi’s health decline, severe economic shocks, or external crises could still create openings for factional maneuvering, though historical precedent and current power structures make such shifts improbable within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$133,704Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 removal of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have eliminated high-level rivals and reinforced centralized command. These actions, part of a broader campaign that has sidelined over 100 top generals since 2022, underscore the Chinese Communist Party’s institutional mechanisms for managing elite competition without visible fractures. Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because the opaque system has repeatedly neutralized challenges through anti-corruption drives and loyalty tests, with no verified signs of organized opposition capable of execution. Unforeseen variables such as Xi’s health decline, severe economic shocks, or external crises could still create openings for factional maneuvering, though historical precedent and current power structures make such shifts improbable within the timeframe.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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