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Politique·Israël

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

Market icon
Politique·Israël

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

juin 30

déc. 31

juin 30

déc. 31

19% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
19% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Despite President Trump's recent public appeals to Saudi Arabia—highlighted in his March 27 Miami speech urging Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to join—and the March 26 introduction of the bipartisan Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act by Senators Budd and Ernst to bolster ties and attract new members, no country has advanced formal negotiations or announcements toward accession by June 30. Ongoing US-Israel military actions against Iran have reinforced cooperation among existing signatories like the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Kazakhstan, and Somaliland but heightened regional risks, stalling expansions amid Saudi demands for Palestinian progress. Traders' 80.5% "No" consensus reflects this lack of verifiable diplomatic momentum over the past 30 days and the compressed timeline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.

For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$316
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Despite President Trump's recent public appeals to Saudi Arabia—highlighted in his March 27 Miami speech urging Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to join—and the March 26 introduction of the bipartisan Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act by Senators Budd and Ernst to bolster ties and attract new members, no country has advanced formal negotiations or announcements toward accession by June 30. Ongoing US-Israel military actions against Iran have reinforced cooperation among existing signatories like the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Kazakhstan, and Somaliland but heightened regional risks, stalling expansions amid Saudi demands for Palestinian progress. Traders' 80.5% "No" consensus reflects this lack of verifiable diplomatic momentum over the past 30 days and the compressed timeline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.

For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$316
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 19% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 19¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 19% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 1, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? » est de 19% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 19% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.