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icon for OPEC dissolves in 2026?
Économie·Émirats Arabes Unis

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

icon for OPEC dissolves in 2026?
Économie·Émirats Arabes Unis

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

9% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
9% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, reducing the group's global supply control from roughly 30% to 26%. Recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including the April 5 virtual session affirming a modest 206,000 barrels per day output hike for May amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions, underscore ongoing coordination led by Saudi Arabia. This skin-in-the-game sentiment draws from OPEC's historical endurance through past rifts and quota disputes. Realistic challenges include cascading defections if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate non-compliance amid U.S. shale competition, with monthly reviews as key near-term catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.

- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.

- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.

An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,869
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, reducing the group's global supply control from roughly 30% to 26%. Recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including the April 5 virtual session affirming a modest 206,000 barrels per day output hike for May amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions, underscore ongoing coordination led by Saudi Arabia. This skin-in-the-game sentiment draws from OPEC's historical endurance through past rifts and quota disputes. Realistic challenges include cascading defections if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate non-compliance amid U.S. shale competition, with monthly reviews as key near-term catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.

- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.

- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.

An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,869
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« OPEC dissolves in 2026? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 9% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 9¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 9% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« OPEC dissolves in 2026? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 28, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « OPEC dissolves in 2026? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « OPEC dissolves in 2026? » est de 9% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 9% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « OPEC dissolves in 2026? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.