Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.3% that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state triggering Article 50 withdrawal since Brexit and ongoing integration efforts, including EU institutions' April 24 agreement to overhaul the single market by end-2027 and leaders' deadlines to bolster economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions. Recent French Frexit protests around April 1 highlighted fringe Eurosceptic sentiment, but no governments or parliaments have advanced exit referendums, coalition breakdowns, or no-confidence votes. Structural economic interdependence and procedural hurdles for total dissolution underpin this stability, though escalation in Ukraine, a Middle East crisis fracturing alliances, or a snap election yielding anti-EU majorities in France or Italy could prompt rapid shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
L'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
Oui
$162,282 Vol.
$162,282 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$162,282 Vol.
$162,282 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.3% that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state triggering Article 50 withdrawal since Brexit and ongoing integration efforts, including EU institutions' April 24 agreement to overhaul the single market by end-2027 and leaders' deadlines to bolster economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions. Recent French Frexit protests around April 1 highlighted fringe Eurosceptic sentiment, but no governments or parliaments have advanced exit referendums, coalition breakdowns, or no-confidence votes. Structural economic interdependence and procedural hurdles for total dissolution underpin this stability, though escalation in Ukraine, a Middle East crisis fracturing alliances, or a snap election yielding anti-EU majorities in France or Italy could prompt rapid shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$162,282Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.3% that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state triggering Article 50 withdrawal since Brexit and ongoing integration efforts, including EU institutions' April 24 agreement to overhaul the single market by end-2027 and leaders' deadlines to bolster economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions. Recent French Frexit protests around April 1 highlighted fringe Eurosceptic sentiment, but no governments or parliaments have advanced exit referendums, coalition breakdowns, or no-confidence votes. Structural economic interdependence and procedural hurdles for total dissolution underpin this stability, though escalation in Ukraine, a Middle East crisis fracturing alliances, or a snap election yielding anti-EU majorities in France or Italy could prompt rapid shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$162,282Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.3% that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state triggering Article 50 withdrawal since Brexit and ongoing integration efforts, including EU institutions' April 24 agreement to overhaul the single market by end-2027 and leaders' deadlines to bolster economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions. Recent French Frexit protests around April 1 highlighted fringe Eurosceptic sentiment, but no governments or parliaments have advanced exit referendums, coalition breakdowns, or no-confidence votes. Structural economic interdependence and procedural hurdles for total dissolution underpin this stability, though escalation in Ukraine, a Middle East crisis fracturing alliances, or a snap election yielding anti-EU majorities in France or Italy could prompt rapid shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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