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icon for Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin
Monde·Berlin

Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin

icon for Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin
Monde·Berlin

Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin

Linke 2-5 % 29%

Linke 0-2 % 24%

CDU 0-2 % 18%

CDU 2-5 % 13%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Linke 2-5 % 29%

Linke 0-2 % 24%

CDU 0-2 % 18%

CDU 2-5 % 13%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Linke 0-2 %

$72 Vol.

24%

Linke 2-5 %

$397 Vol.

29%

Linke 5-10 %

$61 Vol.

20%

Linke 10 %+

$121 Vol.

4%

CDU 0-2 %

$26 Vol.

18%

CDU 2-5 %

$47 Vol.

13%

CDU 5-10 %

$163 Vol.

9%

CDU 10 %+

$71 Vol.

2%

AfD 0-2 %

$26 Vol.

2%

AfD 2-5 %

$26 Vol.

2%

AfD 5 %+

$26 Vol.

2%

Un autre parti gagne

$90 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU in the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties clustered around 20-23% and AfD and the Greens close behind, creating a four-way contest for first place. The CDU’s decision to replace Governing Mayor Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal amid criticism of the January power outage response has coincided with modest erosion in the party’s support since its stronger 2023 showing. Die Linke’s Elif Eralp has capitalized on gains seen in the 2025 federal election in the capital, while late campaigning by federal CDU figures has not yet produced measurable separation. With voting three days away and turnout dynamics still fluid among younger and urban voters, the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing align with the limited polling gap and absence of decisive late shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$1,125
Date de fin
20 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU in the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties clustered around 20-23% and AfD and the Greens close behind, creating a four-way contest for first place. The CDU’s decision to replace Governing Mayor Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal amid criticism of the January power outage response has coincided with modest erosion in the party’s support since its stronger 2023 showing. Die Linke’s Elif Eralp has capitalized on gains seen in the 2025 federal election in the capital, while late campaigning by federal CDU figures has not yet produced measurable separation. With voting three days away and turnout dynamics still fluid among younger and urban voters, the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing align with the limited polling gap and absence of decisive late shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$1,125
Date de fin
20 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for L’AfD obtiendra-t-il entre 17 % et 20 % de tous les votes valides de second tour ?

L’AfD obtiendra-t-il entre 17 % et 20 % de tous les votes valides de second tour ?

61%
Oui
icon for La CDU obtiendra-t-elle entre 20 % et 23 % de tous les seconds votes valides ?

La CDU obtiendra-t-elle entre 20 % et 23 % de tous les seconds votes valides ?

46%
Oui
icon for Le SPD obtiendra-t-il moins de 10 % de tous les seconds votes valides ?

Le SPD obtiendra-t-il moins de 10 % de tous les seconds votes valides ?

43%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Linke 2-5 % » à 29%, suivi de « Linke 0-2 % » à 24%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 29¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 29% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 15, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin » est « Linke 2-5 % » à 29%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 29% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Linke 0-2 % » à 24%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Marge de victoire de la part des votes aux élections de l'État de Berlin » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.