Persistent low water levels at the Kaub gauge on the Rhine, currently around 29 cm against the 77 cm Gleichwertiger Wasserstand threshold for normal navigation, reflect an extended drought and rainfall deficit across the catchment, particularly in Alpine headwaters. Record lows hit in July and August amid heatwaves, with mid-August rains offering only temporary, partial relief before levels resumed declining under dry conditions. German federal hydrology updates indicate the low-water situation will likely hold through September, as the typical autumn low-water period begins and sustained precipitation needed for meaningful recovery remains absent from near-term forecasts. This underpins trader pricing favoring October resolution or later, with minimal chance of normalization before mid-September.