Prolonged drought and record-low water levels across the Danube in August 2026, driven by extreme heat and reduced precipitation in Central and Eastern Europe, have positioned October as the leading window for return to normal levels according to trader consensus. Impacts on navigation, hydropower, nuclear cooling at facilities like Hungary’s Paks plant, and freight have underscored the severity of current conditions. Seasonal patterns suggest increased autumn rainfall could restore flows by mid-to-late September or October, aligning with the highest-probability outcomes for those periods. Earlier recovery remains less favored amid ongoing heat risks, while extension beyond October carries lower odds given historical recovery timelines after summer droughts.