Current forecast guidance for Wellington points to a mild winter day on August 12, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 13–15 °C under light westerly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 14 °C (56.5 %) and 15 °C (29.0 %), which sit modestly above the long-term August mean maximum of roughly 12 °C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the region favors near-average temperatures overall, while short-range model consensus shows no strong cold front or southerly outbreak in the immediate 48-hour window. Variability remains from local wind channeling around Cook Strait and possible marine-layer effects, keeping lower outcomes (≤13 °C) at single-digit implied probabilities. Updated high-resolution runs and MetService guidance expected within the next day will determine whether probabilities shift toward 15 °C or consolidate around 14 °C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Wellington le 12 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Wellington le 12 août ?
14°C 56%
15°C 30%
13°C 8%
16°C 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 août 2026
9°C ou moins
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
8%
14°C
56%
15°C
30%
16°C
5%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C ou plus
<1%
14°C 56%
15°C 30%
13°C 8%
16°C 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 août 2026
9°C ou moins
$258 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$204 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$319 Vol.
1%
12°C
$113 Vol.
1%
13°C
$369 Vol.
8%
14°C
$919 Vol.
56%
15°C
$1,287 Vol.
30%
16°C
$197 Vol.
5%
17°C
$62 Vol.
1%
18°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
19°C ou plus
$292 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance for Wellington points to a mild winter day on August 12, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 13–15 °C under light westerly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 14 °C (56.5 %) and 15 °C (29.0 %), which sit modestly above the long-term August mean maximum of roughly 12 °C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the region favors near-average temperatures overall, while short-range model consensus shows no strong cold front or southerly outbreak in the immediate 48-hour window. Variability remains from local wind channeling around Cook Strait and possible marine-layer effects, keeping lower outcomes (≤13 °C) at single-digit implied probabilities. Updated high-resolution runs and MetService guidance expected within the next day will determine whether probabilities shift toward 15 °C or consolidate around 14 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$4,259Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance for Wellington points to a mild winter day on August 12, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 13–15 °C under light westerly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 14 °C (56.5 %) and 15 °C (29.0 %), which sit modestly above the long-term August mean maximum of roughly 12 °C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the region favors near-average temperatures overall, while short-range model consensus shows no strong cold front or southerly outbreak in the immediate 48-hour window. Variability remains from local wind channeling around Cook Strait and possible marine-layer effects, keeping lower outcomes (≤13 °C) at single-digit implied probabilities. Updated high-resolution runs and MetService guidance expected within the next day will determine whether probabilities shift toward 15 °C or consolidate around 14 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,259Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance for Wellington points to a mild winter day on August 12, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 13–15 °C under light westerly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 14 °C (56.5 %) and 15 °C (29.0 %), which sit modestly above the long-term August mean maximum of roughly 12 °C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the region favors near-average temperatures overall, while short-range model consensus shows no strong cold front or southerly outbreak in the immediate 48-hour window. Variability remains from local wind channeling around Cook Strait and possible marine-layer effects, keeping lower outcomes (≤13 °C) at single-digit implied probabilities. Updated high-resolution runs and MetService guidance expected within the next day will determine whether probabilities shift toward 15 °C or consolidate around 14 °C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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