Latest Met Office observations and numerical weather prediction models have locked in an 18°C overnight minimum for London on August 12 under a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiative cooling and maintains mild Atlantic air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows hover near 14–16°C but current anticyclonic conditions have elevated baselines by 2–4°C, producing the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official temperature thresholds are measured at standardized urban stations with minimal urban heat island bias after midnight. Only an abrupt shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could drop readings below this level, though ensemble guidance shows low variance this close to resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Londres le 12 août ?
La température la plus basse à Londres le 12 août ?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$15,648 Vol.
$15,648 Vol.
12 août 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$15,648 Vol.
$15,648 Vol.
12 août 2026
12°C or below
$279 Vol.
No
13°C
$184 Vol.
No
14°C
$688 Vol.
No
15°C
$942 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,407 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,447 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,016 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$2,510 Vol.
No
20°C
$591 Vol.
No
21°C
$295 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$289 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office observations and numerical weather prediction models have locked in an 18°C overnight minimum for London on August 12 under a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiative cooling and maintains mild Atlantic air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows hover near 14–16°C but current anticyclonic conditions have elevated baselines by 2–4°C, producing the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official temperature thresholds are measured at standardized urban stations with minimal urban heat island bias after midnight. Only an abrupt shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could drop readings below this level, though ensemble guidance shows low variance this close to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$15,648Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office observations and numerical weather prediction models have locked in an 18°C overnight minimum for London on August 12 under a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiative cooling and maintains mild Atlantic air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows hover near 14–16°C but current anticyclonic conditions have elevated baselines by 2–4°C, producing the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official temperature thresholds are measured at standardized urban stations with minimal urban heat island bias after midnight. Only an abrupt shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could drop readings below this level, though ensemble guidance shows low variance this close to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,648Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Latest Met Office observations and numerical weather prediction models have locked in an 18°C overnight minimum for London on August 12 under a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiative cooling and maintains mild Atlantic air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows hover near 14–16°C but current anticyclonic conditions have elevated baselines by 2–4°C, producing the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official temperature thresholds are measured at standardized urban stations with minimal urban heat island bias after midnight. Only an abrupt shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could drop readings below this level, though ensemble guidance shows low variance this close to resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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