Recent ECMWF and Météo-France model runs, amid a persistent European heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and subsiding air, position the Paris maximum on August 12 near 35–36 °C at the official Montsouris station. These outcomes dominate trader consensus because ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability in the 48-hour window, with only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical August climatology (long-term 80th–90th percentiles near 32–34 °C) and the current positive temperature anomalies reinforce the elevated probabilities for 35 °C and 36 °C, while the low odds for 37 °C or higher reflect the narrow spread in deterministic and ensemble forecasts ahead of the next model update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Paris le 12 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Paris le 12 août ?
35°C 48%
36°C 34%
34°C 9%
37°C 6%
NOUVEAU
$10,236 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$10,236 Vol.
12 août 2026
29°C ou moins
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
3%
34°C
9%
35°C
48%
36°C
34%
37°C
6%
38°C
2%
39°C ou plus
<1%
35°C 48%
36°C 34%
34°C 9%
37°C 6%
NOUVEAU
$10,236 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$10,236 Vol.
12 août 2026
29°C ou moins
$1,994 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$320 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$861 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$444 Vol.
1%
33°C
$754 Vol.
3%
34°C
$1,346 Vol.
9%
35°C
$1,620 Vol.
48%
36°C
$1,098 Vol.
34%
37°C
$964 Vol.
6%
38°C
$456 Vol.
2%
39°C ou plus
$380 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and Météo-France model runs, amid a persistent European heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and subsiding air, position the Paris maximum on August 12 near 35–36 °C at the official Montsouris station. These outcomes dominate trader consensus because ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability in the 48-hour window, with only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical August climatology (long-term 80th–90th percentiles near 32–34 °C) and the current positive temperature anomalies reinforce the elevated probabilities for 35 °C and 36 °C, while the low odds for 37 °C or higher reflect the narrow spread in deterministic and ensemble forecasts ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$10,236Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and Météo-France model runs, amid a persistent European heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and subsiding air, position the Paris maximum on August 12 near 35–36 °C at the official Montsouris station. These outcomes dominate trader consensus because ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability in the 48-hour window, with only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical August climatology (long-term 80th–90th percentiles near 32–34 °C) and the current positive temperature anomalies reinforce the elevated probabilities for 35 °C and 36 °C, while the low odds for 37 °C or higher reflect the narrow spread in deterministic and ensemble forecasts ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,236Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and Météo-France model runs, amid a persistent European heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and subsiding air, position the Paris maximum on August 12 near 35–36 °C at the official Montsouris station. These outcomes dominate trader consensus because ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability in the 48-hour window, with only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical August climatology (long-term 80th–90th percentiles near 32–34 °C) and the current positive temperature anomalies reinforce the elevated probabilities for 35 °C and 36 °C, while the low odds for 37 °C or higher reflect the narrow spread in deterministic and ensemble forecasts ahead of the next model update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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