Recent model consensus from Météo-France and European centers points to a high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies, light winds, and strong solar heating over Paris through August 14, with daytime peaks centered around 37–38°C. Limited boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat island effect, which typically adds 1–2°C to official readings, support the market's tight split favoring 39°C at 44.5% and 38°C at 36%. Small revisions in moisture advection or front timing could shift the peak, while historical August extremes near 39–40°C provide context for the low-probability tails above 40°C. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Paris le 14 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Paris le 14 août ?
39°C 45%
38°C 36%
40°C 12%
37°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 août 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
3%
37°C
9%
38°C
36%
39°C
45%
40°C
12%
41°C
3%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 45%
38°C 36%
40°C 12%
37°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 août 2026
35°C or below
$9 Vol.
1%
36°C
$281 Vol.
3%
37°C
$19 Vol.
9%
38°C
$153 Vol.
36%
39°C
$217 Vol.
45%
40°C
$1 Vol.
12%
41°C
$21 Vol.
3%
42°C
$51 Vol.
1%
43°C
$11 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$165 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$447 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Météo-France and European centers points to a high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies, light winds, and strong solar heating over Paris through August 14, with daytime peaks centered around 37–38°C. Limited boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat island effect, which typically adds 1–2°C to official readings, support the market's tight split favoring 39°C at 44.5% and 38°C at 36%. Small revisions in moisture advection or front timing could shift the peak, while historical August extremes near 39–40°C provide context for the low-probability tails above 40°C. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,375Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Météo-France and European centers points to a high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies, light winds, and strong solar heating over Paris through August 14, with daytime peaks centered around 37–38°C. Limited boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat island effect, which typically adds 1–2°C to official readings, support the market's tight split favoring 39°C at 44.5% and 38°C at 36%. Small revisions in moisture advection or front timing could shift the peak, while historical August extremes near 39–40°C provide context for the low-probability tails above 40°C. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,375Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from Météo-France and European centers points to a high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies, light winds, and strong solar heating over Paris through August 14, with daytime peaks centered around 37–38°C. Limited boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat island effect, which typically adds 1–2°C to official readings, support the market's tight split favoring 39°C at 44.5% and 38°C at 36%. Small revisions in moisture advection or front timing could shift the peak, while historical August extremes near 39–40°C provide context for the low-probability tails above 40°C. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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