The closely matched probabilities across multiple size brackets for Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus reflect uncertainty over how direct constituency mandates and second-vote shares will translate into final seat totals under the state's mixed-member proportional system. With major parties including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others polling competitively ahead of the 2026 election, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns, regional strongholds, and potential overhang or leveling seats. Recent campaign developments and coalition positioning have kept the race tight, as small shifts in vote distribution could expand or constrain the parliament's size. Scheduled election timing leaves room for late swings that might separate the leading ranges in trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<143 22%
153–157 20%
148–152 18%
158–162 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
<143
22%
143–147
13%
148–152
18%
153–157
20%
158–162
18%
163+
17%
<143 22%
153–157 20%
148–152 18%
158–162 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
<143
$0 Vol.
22%
143–147
$23 Vol.
13%
148–152
$0 Vol.
18%
153–157
$0 Vol.
20%
158–162
$0 Vol.
18%
163+
$0 Vol.
17%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across multiple size brackets for Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus reflect uncertainty over how direct constituency mandates and second-vote shares will translate into final seat totals under the state's mixed-member proportional system. With major parties including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others polling competitively ahead of the 2026 election, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns, regional strongholds, and potential overhang or leveling seats. Recent campaign developments and coalition positioning have kept the race tight, as small shifts in vote distribution could expand or constrain the parliament's size. Scheduled election timing leaves room for late swings that might separate the leading ranges in trader consensus.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$23Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across multiple size brackets for Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus reflect uncertainty over how direct constituency mandates and second-vote shares will translate into final seat totals under the state's mixed-member proportional system. With major parties including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others polling competitively ahead of the 2026 election, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns, regional strongholds, and potential overhang or leveling seats. Recent campaign developments and coalition positioning have kept the race tight, as small shifts in vote distribution could expand or constrain the parliament's size. Scheduled election timing leaves room for late swings that might separate the leading ranges in trader consensus.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across multiple size brackets for Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus reflect uncertainty over how direct constituency mandates and second-vote shares will translate into final seat totals under the state's mixed-member proportional system. With major parties including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others polling competitively ahead of the 2026 election, outcomes hinge on turnout patterns, regional strongholds, and potential overhang or leveling seats. Recent campaign developments and coalition positioning have kept the race tight, as small shifts in vote distribution could expand or constrain the parliament's size. Scheduled election timing leaves room for late swings that might separate the leading ranges in trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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