Recent UAP file releases under the Trump administration's PURSUE directive, including the Pentagon's third tranche of declassified documents and orb videos on June 12, 2026, have fueled trader interest without delivering confirmation of extraterrestrial life. Officials continue describing cases as unresolved, with no definitive evidence of non-human intelligence or alien technology, aligning with historical patterns of ambiguous sightings explained as mundane or unexplained phenomena. Bipartisan congressional pressure, whistleblower testimony from figures like David Grusch, and proposed transparency legislation sustain speculation, yet the absence of smoking-gun proof keeps implied probabilities low for near-term resolutions. Further rolling releases and hearings remain key upcoming catalysts that could shift sentiment if they yield stronger claims.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWhite House launches new 'Aliens' website unrelated to extraterrestrials
December 31 dips to 7%1%
The White House launched a website themed around 'aliens' referring to foreign nationals, not extraterrestrials, which disappointed some expecting official alien confirmation. This contributed to market skepticism and price declines.
NASA chief confirms agency has unexplained UFO imagery but no proof of aliens
December 31 rises to 8%1%
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman acknowledged the agency has images of unidentified objects but stopped short of confirming extraterrestrial life, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and maintaining market skepticism.
Reports emerge of President Trump having a prepared UFO disclosure speech
December 31 dips to 8%2%
Rumors and informal comments suggested President Trump had a bombshell speech prepared to reveal the truth about UFOs and aliens, fueling speculation but lacking authoritative confirmation, contributing to market uncertainty.
Reports confirm no official U.S. government confirmation of extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 8%1%
Multiple credible sources confirm that despite file releases and whistleblower claims, no official statement from the President, Cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or federal agencies has definitively confirmed extraterrestrial life or technology.
Claims of President Trump’s prepared UFO disclosure speech emerge
December 31 dips to 7%3%
Reports surfaced that President Trump has a 'bombshell' UFO speech prepared that could amount to a historic 'soft disclosure' of extraterrestrial life. However, no official confirmation or definitive statement was made, and the market price declined thereafter.
Reports claim President Trump has a UFO disclosure speech 'written and ready'
December 31 dips to 6%4%
UK ufologist and filmmaker claimed President Trump has a prepared speech that could lead to a historic 'soft disclosure' about extraterrestrial life. Despite media buzz, no official confirmation or public statement was made, and market prices declined reflecting skepticism.
Reports claim President Trump prepared to reveal truth about aliens in upcoming speech
Unverified reports emerged that President Trump was preparing a bombshell speech to confirm the existence of aliens. However, no official confirmation or statement was made, and the market did not react significantly, reflecting skepticism about the claim's credibility.
Reports of President Trump having a prepared UFO disclosure speech
December 31 dips to 7%3%
Reports emerged that President Trump had a 'bombshell' speech written and ready to reveal information about UFOs and extraterrestrial matters. However, no official public confirmation or statement was made, and the market price for confirmation dropped to its lowest point in the analyzed window.
Reports claim Trump has UFO disclosure speech ready but no official confirmation
December 31 dips to 7%2%
Reports emerged that President Trump has a prepared speech to reveal UFO truths, but no official statement confirming extraterrestrial life has been made, maintaining market skepticism and low prices.
Reports of Trump preparing UFO disclosure speech at NATO summit
December 31 rises to 8%1%
Speculation arose that President Trump had a prepared speech to disclose UFO and alien information at the NATO summit on July 8, 2026. This anticipation briefly raised market interest, but no definitive confirmation was made, and the market prices remained low.
Rumors of President Trump preparing an alien disclosure speech circulate
December 31 dips to 6%4%
Reports emerged that President Trump was preparing a bombshell speech to reveal the truth about aliens, fueling speculation and brief market optimism. However, no official speech or confirmation occurred, and the market price dropped accordingly.
Reports of Trump preparing a UFO disclosure speech circulate
December 31 dips to 8%2%
Claims emerged that President Trump had a speech 'written and ready' to disclose information about non-human life, raising market speculation. However, no official confirmation or speech was delivered, leading to price declines.
Rumors of Trump’s imminent speech on extraterrestrials circulate
December 31 dips to 7%2%
Media reports surfaced claiming President Trump had a prepared speech to reveal the truth about aliens, fueling speculation and brief market optimism. However, no official confirmation or speech occurred, and the market prices continued to decline.
Speculation of imminent Trump speech on extraterrestrials
December 31 dips to 8%2%
Filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claimed President Trump had a prepared speech on aliens ready to be delivered around July 8, 2026. However, no official confirmation or speech occurred, maintaining market skepticism and contributing to price declines.
Public and scientific consensus emphasize no official confirmation of alien life yet
December 31 dips to 7%4%
Despite widespread public interest and speculation fueled by government file releases and media, no official US government statement confirming extraterrestrial life has been made, leading to continued market price declines.
Spielberg’s film 'Disclosure Day' sparks public debate on alien confirmation
December 31 dips to 7%3%
The release of a major film about extraterrestrial disclosure increased public interest and discussion about alien confirmation but did not affect official confirmation probabilities, coinciding with continued low market prices for the December 31 outcome.
No official confirmation of extraterrestrial life despite public interest and speculation
December 31 dips to 7%3%
Despite extensive file releases, public statements, and media attention, no definitive confirmation from the President, Cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or federal agencies was made, leading to a decline in market prices for near-term confirmation dates.
Steven Spielberg’s film 'Disclosure Day' sparks renewed public debate on alien disclosure
December 31 dips to 8%2%
The release of a major film about government cover-ups of extraterrestrial life reignited public discussion and speculation about official disclosure, but no new government confirmation emerged, contributing to market uncertainty.
Release of Spielberg’s Disclosure Day film sparks renewed public debate on alien disclosure
December 31 dips to 7%3%
The premiere of a major film about government UFO disclosure reignited public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life, but no new official confirmation was made by U.S. authorities.
Public and scientific consensus remains skeptical despite media hype around Disclosure Day
December 31 dips to 7%3%
Following the release of Spielberg's Disclosure Day and ongoing government file releases, experts and scientists reiterated the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial life, reinforcing market declines in the probability of official confirmation by year-end.
Release of Steven Spielberg's film 'Disclosure Day' sparks renewed public debate on alien disclosure
December 31 dips to 7%1%
The premiere of 'Disclosure Day,' a film about government cover-ups of extraterrestrial life, reignited public discussion and speculation about official alien disclosure, but no new government confirmation emerged.
Experts affirm no confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life despite public interest
December 31 dips to 7%2%
Scientists and experts reiterated that no confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life or technology has been observed, dampening hopes for imminent official disclosure. This contributed to further price declines in the market.
Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb appointed to lead White House UAP Science Advisory Council
December 31 dips to 10%4%
Avi Loeb was named to head a new scientific advisory council tasked with investigating UAPs, signaling a shift toward a more scientific and transparent approach to studying unidentified phenomena. This development maintained public and market interest but did not confirm alien existence.
Latest US UFO files reveal strange lights but no hard evidence of aliens
September 30 dips to 4%1%
The newest batch of government documents included reports of strange glowing orbs and unidentified objects but took no position on their origin. The files did not provide evidence of alien technology, reinforcing skepticism and causing further price declines in the market.
SETI scientists find no evidence of extraterrestrial technology in interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 9%1%
Scientists searching for technosignatures from the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS found no signs of alien technology, reinforcing the lack of official confirmation and contributing to market skepticism about imminent disclosure.
SETI scientists find no signs of extraterrestrial technology in interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 7%3%
Scientists searching for alien technology signals from an interstellar object found no evidence beyond human-made interference, maintaining the scientific consensus of no confirmed extraterrestrial contact.
No official US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life by market close
By the market's closing date, no President, Cabinet member, Joint Chiefs member, or federal agency had definitively stated that extraterrestrial life or technology exists, resulting in the market settling at low prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
White House launches Aliens.gov website, sparking public confusion
December 31 dips to 7%3%
The Trump administration unveiled a website named Aliens.gov, which was widely expected to host UFO disclosure information but instead focused on immigration enforcement, causing public disappointment and skepticism about genuine disclosure efforts, impacting market sentiment negatively.
White House denies any indication of aliens in recent UAP takedowns
June 30 dips to 0%1%
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Council spokesman John Kirby publicly stated there is no indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity in recent UAP shootdowns, reinforcing official skepticism and contributing to market price drops for near-term outcomes.
Disclosure Forum 2026 convenes lawmakers, whistleblowers, and experts on UAP transparency
December 31 dips to 7%3%
The Disclosure Forum 2026, held in Washington, D.C., brought together bipartisan lawmakers, former intelligence officials, researchers, and whistleblowers to advance the conversation on UAP transparency, oversight, and policy. The event highlighted bipartisan public support for disclosure but did not produce definitive confirmation of alien existence, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and debate.
Disclosure Foundation launches initiative to review NASA UAP archival data
December 31 dips to 9%1%
The Disclosure Foundation announced a major effort to analyze NASA's archival UAP data using AI and citizen science, reflecting ongoing scientific interest but no official confirmation of alien existence, contributing to market uncertainty.
Disclosure Foundation announces review of NASA archival UAP data using AI
The Disclosure Foundation launched an initiative to analyze NASA's archival UAP data with AI and citizen science to identify anomalies, reflecting ongoing scientific interest but no official confirmation of alien existence.
NASA astronaut reveals plan to test for extraterrestrial life on ISS
December 31 dips to 11%3%
A NASA astronaut disclosed plans to test for extraterrestrial life aboard the International Space Station, reflecting ongoing scientific efforts but no official US government confirmation of alien existence, which did not boost market prices.
New science advisory council forms to assist US government on UAP investigations
A multidisciplinary team was assembled to provide scientific guidance on UAP investigations, signaling ongoing government efforts but no official confirmation of alien life, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
UAP Science Advisory Council’s June report finds no confirmed alien technology
June 30 dips to 0%1%
Loeb’s advisory council released a June‑5 report summarising the latest UAP data, emphasizing the lack of confirmed extraterrestrial signatures. Media focus on the “no‑evidence” conclusion reinforced the market’s move toward 0 % for the “June 30” outcome (priceBefore = 1, priceAfter = 0).
New science advisory council formed to assist UAP investigations
A multidisciplinary team of expert researchers was assembled to provide scientific guidance to U.S. government investigations into unidentified anomalous phenomena, signaling ongoing efforts to understand UAPs without confirming extraterrestrial life. This contributed to sustained but cautious market sentiment.
New UAP Science Advisory Council formed to assist government investigations
Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb announced the formation of a new UAP Science Advisory Council to provide scientific guidance to the U.S. government on unresolved UAP cases. The council includes experts in physics, AI, psychology, and other fields and supports the interagency UAP Governance Board. This development signaled a more structured scientific approach but did not confirm alien existence.
Harvard Professor Avi Loeb appointed to lead new UAP Science Advisory Council
The White House and intelligence agencies established a UAP Science Advisory Council led by Avi Loeb to assist in scientific evaluation and coordination of UAP data, signaling ongoing investigation without definitive disclosure.
NASA astronaut announces plans to test for extraterrestrial life on ISS
December 31 dips to 10%4%
A NASA astronaut revealed intentions to conduct tests for extraterrestrial life aboard the International Space Station and to publicly share results, reflecting ongoing scientific efforts but no official government confirmation. This had minimal impact on market prices.
UAP Governance Board established to oversee UFO file declassification
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The ODNI, FBI, and Department of War launched the UAP Governance Board to coordinate UFO case management and control declassification timing, indicating ongoing review but no imminent confirmation of alien existence.
Scientists update protocols for announcing extraterrestrial life discovery
December 31 dips to 7%3%
An international scientific committee updated guidelines for confirming and announcing extraterrestrial intelligence, emphasizing rigorous verification and transparency, reflecting ongoing scientific interest but no official government confirmation.
Experts confirm no conclusive evidence of alien technology in released UFO files
Scientists and experts reviewing the released UFO files concluded that the materials contain no evidence of alien technology or extraterrestrial life, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to the decline in prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Scientists discuss protocols for potential extraterrestrial disclosure
Scientific groups updated recommendations on how confirmed news of extraterrestrials should be shared with the public, reflecting ongoing preparation for possible disclosure but no official confirmation, which maintained market skepticism.
The Atlantic publishes analysis on lack of UFO disclosure
September 30 dips to 5%2%
An article in The Atlantic argued that the absence of definitive disclosure suggests no evidence exists, reinforcing skepticism and contributing to declining market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Harvard scientist expresses doubt about imminent UFO disclosure
June 30 dips to 0%1%
Dr. Avi Loeb from Harvard University announced skepticism about quick and full UFO disclosure, dampening market enthusiasm and contributing to a decline in prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
International Academy of Astronautics updates protocols for announcing extraterrestrial intelligence
December 31 dips to 8%2%
The IAA updated its guidelines on how scientists should confirm and announce extraterrestrial intelligence, emphasizing consensus and international consultation, indicating no imminent official U.S. confirmation.
International Academy of Astronautics updates protocols for announcing alien life discovery
September 30 dips to 5%2%
The International Academy of Astronautics updated its guidelines for confirming and announcing extraterrestrial life, reflecting ongoing scientific preparation but no official US government confirmation, contributing to market uncertainty.
Pentagon's AARO reaffirms no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial life
September 30 dips to 3%3%
The Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) publicly stated it has not found verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial technology or life, causing a significant drop in market prices for official confirmation.
Pentagon's AARO reaffirms no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial technology
December 31 drops to 10%6%
The Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) publicly stated it has not uncovered verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial technology or life, attributing UAP sightings to misidentifications and cultural influences. This official statement caused a significant drop in market prices for both September 30 and December 31 outcomes.
UFO whistleblower Ross Coulthart to examine path to disclosure on NewsNation
December 31 dips to 10%4%
Media coverage and investigative reporting on UFO disclosure increased with a prominent whistleblower's program, sustaining public interest but not providing official confirmation, contributing to ongoing market uncertainty.
Scientific analysis argues aliens unlikely to be visiting Earth despite government UFO releases
December 31 dips to 9%1%
Scientific commentary highlighted reasons why extraterrestrial civilizations might exist but are unlikely to be visiting Earth, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent official confirmation.
Third batch of UFO files released with no confirmation of extraterrestrial life
September 30 dips to 4%3%
The third release of UFO files included reports of strange phenomena but no conclusive evidence of aliens, reinforcing official positions and contributing to a decline in market confidence for confirmation by September 30.
Third tranche of UFO files released with no alien confirmation
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The Pentagon released a third batch of UFO files including reports of strange lights and orbs but no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial technology. The release coincided with a new alien-themed film, fueling public interest but not altering official positions, leading to further market price declines.
Pentagon Releases Third Batch of UFO Files Detailing Unresolved Orb Sightings
September 30 dips to 3%3%
The Pentagon released its third batch of previously classified documents, which took no position on the origin of UAPs and offered no confirmation of alien technology, further solidifying the market's downward trend.
Third batch of de‑classified UFO files released, again without confirming extraterrestrials
September 30 drops to 4%5%
The third tranche of the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System (PURSUE) was released, again stating that the records contained unresolved cases and no definitive proof. The release reinforced analyst expectations of no confirmation, pushing the September 30 outcome down to a low of 4 % by July 1.
Pentagon releases third batch of UFO files with mysterious glowing orbs reports
June 30 dips to 0%2%
The Pentagon released a third set of declassified documents featuring reports of strange glowing orbs and UFO sightings, which attracted public and FBI attention but did not confirm extraterrestrial life, leading to a decline in market prices for near-term confirmation.
Third tranche of UAP files released with no alien confirmation
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The Pentagon released a third batch of UFO files containing reports of unexplained phenomena but explicitly stated no confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life or technology was found, reinforcing official skepticism.
Third release of U.S. UFO files includes reports of strange glowing orbs but no confirmation of aliens
The latest batch of declassified documents featured reports of unusual aerial phenomena, including glowing orbs that attracted FBI attention, but the government made no definitive determination on their origin. This reinforced the market's cautious stance on official confirmation.
Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson calls for concrete alien evidence from US government
December 31 dips to 10%4%
Neil deGrasse Tyson urged the US government to provide definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, reflecting public frustration with the lack of confirmation despite ongoing disclosures, which contributed to market uncertainty and price drops.
New batch of government UFO files reveals strange orb sightings but no hard proof of aliens
June 30 dips to 0%1%
The latest release included reports of glowing orbs and unusual aerial phenomena investigated by the FBI, but no definitive confirmation of extraterrestrial origin, contributing to further market declines especially for the June 30 outcome.
Third Batch of Declassified UFO Files Released by Pentagon
December 31 dips to 10%1%
The Pentagon released its third batch of previously classified documents, which took no position on the origin of UAPs and offered no proof of extraterrestrial life, driving down the odds for both outcomes.
Third release of UFO files shows strange lights but no hard evidence of aliens
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The Pentagon released a third batch of files including reports of glowing orbs and unidentified objects, but experts and officials stated there was no conclusive evidence of alien technology. This reinforced market doubts about official confirmation.
Third batch of UAP files released with reports of strange orbs but no alien confirmation
December 31 drops to 10%6%
The government released additional UFO files including reports of unusual glowing orbs and unexplained phenomena, but official agencies like AARO maintained no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial technology, leading to skepticism and price declines.
Third tranche of UFO files released with no confirmation of alien life
June 30 dips to 1%2%
The third release of declassified UFO files continued the transparency initiative but again provided no definitive proof of extraterrestrial life or technology, contributing to further declines in market prices for short-term confirmation outcomes.
Pentagon releases third tranche of declassified UFO files including orb videos
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The Department of Defense published additional UAP files featuring reports of glowing orbs and other phenomena, maintaining public interest but failing to provide definitive confirmation, leading to a decline in market prices.
Trump administration releases third batch of declassified UFO files
June 30 dips to 0%1%
The third tranche of UFO files was released, including reports of strange lights and orbs but no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin. This release coincided with a major alien-themed movie release, maintaining public fascination but not altering market expectations for confirmation.
Pentagon publishes third batch of UFO files including reports of mysterious orbs
December 31 drops to 10%6%
The Department of War released a third set of declassified UAP files featuring new reports and analyses, but no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to a decline in market prices for near-term outcomes.
Third tranche of declassified UFO files released without alien confirmation
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The Trump administration released a third batch of previously top-secret UFO files including videos and documents, continuing transparency efforts but explicitly lacking any definitive confirmation of extraterrestrial life, leading to further market declines.
Third tranche of Pentagon UFO files released with no confirmation of aliens
December 31 drops to 10%6%
The Pentagon released a third set of previously classified UFO files, continuing the transparency initiative. The documents included reports of strange phenomena but did not confirm extraterrestrial origins, leading to further market declines in the probability of official confirmation.
Third batch of UAP files released by US government
June 30 dips to 0%1%
The government released a third set of declassified UFO files, continuing the disclosure process but without definitive confirmation of alien life, leading to further decline in market prices for near-term confirmation.
Third batch of declassified UFO files released by US government
June 30 dips to 0%1%
The government released additional UFO files continuing the rolling disclosure process, but no definitive confirmation of extraterrestrial life was made, contributing to a price decline for the June 30 outcome.
Third release of UFO files presents unresolved cases, dampening confirmation hopes
June 30 dips to 0%1%
The third release of declassified UFO files presented only unresolved cases without definitive proof of alien life, further reducing market optimism and pushing the June 30 outcome price to zero.
Pentagon releases third tranche of UFO files with glowing orb sightings
June 30 drops to 1%5%
The Pentagon released 72 new files including reports of glowing, sometimes red orbs seen by federal law enforcement in the northeastern US. Despite vivid descriptions, officials stated no conclusive evidence of alien technology was found, which tempered market optimism and led to price declines.
Pentagon releases third batch of UFO files with no alien confirmation
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The third release of declassified UFO files included reports of strange lights and objects but no definitive proof of extraterrestrial life. The Pentagon maintained that the materials were unresolved cases without conclusive evidence, leading to further market price declines.
Third batch of UFO files posted, still no conclusive alien evidence
June 30 dips to 0%1%
A third tranche of UAP records (53 documents, 10 images, 6 videos) was posted, yet the files contained no definitive proof of alien technology. The disappointment drove the market’s Yes‑probability for the “June 30” outcome down to 0 % by June 29 (priceBefore = 1, priceAfter = 0).
Third batch of Pentagon UFO files released with no confirmation of alien life
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The Pentagon released a third tranche of declassified UFO files, including reports of strange lights and orbs, but explicitly stated no evidence of extraterrestrial life was found. This release coincided with public and media interest but did not alter the market's low confidence in official confirmation.
Updated protocols for announcing extraterrestrial intelligence published
December 31 dips to 10%4%
New international protocols emphasized scientific rigor and consultation before any announcement of extraterrestrial intelligence, reinforcing the cautious approach and absence of official confirmation in the US government.
New science advisory council formed to assist UAP investigations
September 30 dips to 5%1%
A new science advisory council was established to help the US government resolve the UAP mystery, signaling ongoing investigation but no confirmation of extraterrestrial life, which maintained market skepticism.
Trump administration releases third tranche of declassified UFO files
December 31 dips to 11%3%
On June 12, the Trump administration released a third batch of previously top-secret UFO files from military and civilian intelligence agencies, continuing transparency efforts but without definitive alien confirmation, leading to further market declines.
Third batch of UFO files released, revealing strange lights but no hard evidence
December 31 drops to 7%7%
The latest release included reports of unusual aerial phenomena but took no position on their origin, reinforcing skepticism and pushing market prices down to 7% for December 31.
Pentagon releases second batch of UFO videos and testimony with no alien confirmation
June 30 dips to 1%4%
The Pentagon released additional UFO videos and testimonies but reiterated no evidence of extraterrestrial origin, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to a decline in short-term outcome prices.
Pentagon releases third batch of UFO files with glowing orbs and unexplained phenomena
December 31 dips to 14%2%
The Pentagon released a third tranche of declassified UFO files including videos of glowing orbs and unidentified objects, but officials stated no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin was found. This release maintained public interest but did not increase confidence in official alien confirmation, contributing to price declines.
Updated protocols for announcing extraterrestrial intelligence released
December 31 dips to 10%4%
New international protocols emphasized scientific rigor and broad consultation before any announcement of extraterrestrial intelligence, reinforcing market caution about premature confirmation.
International Academy of Astronautics updates protocols for announcing extraterrestrial intelligence
December 31 dips to 9%1%
The IAA ratified updated principles for verifying and announcing extraterrestrial intelligence, clarifying that UAPs are not included, which tempered market speculation and contributed to price declines.
Trump suggests possible UFO disclosure could come after July
December 31 dips to 10%4%
Trump hinted in a brief interview that a formal “UFO disclosure” could be scheduled for July, but offered no concrete timeline. Traders interpreted the comment as a signal that a definitive statement was unlikely before the end of the year, causing the December‑31 price to fall from 14 % to 10 % by June 12.
UFO whistleblower alleges CIA hoarding alien technology in secret programs
June 30 drops to 0%10%
Former intelligence official David Grusch claimed the CIA possesses alien technology and runs secret retrieval and reverse-engineering programs, fueling public debate and calls for transparency but lacking official confirmation, contributing to market uncertainty and price drops.
CIA allegedly used 23andMe and Ancestry to hunt for alien‑human DNA
June 30 dips to 0%1%
A whistle‑blower claimed the CIA had been mining commercial DNA databases for alien‑human hybrids. Coverage heightened skepticism about any real alien breakthrough, contributing to the market’s slide for the “June 30” outcome (priceBefore = 1, priceAfter = 0).
UFO Whistleblower David Grusch Holds Press Conference on Capitol Steps
December 31 dips to 10%4%
Whistleblower David Grusch and members of Congress held a high-profile press conference demanding full disclosure and claiming the government is aware of multiple forms of non-human life.
Whistleblower David Grusch holds press conference claiming government knowledge of alien life
June 30 dips to 1%4%
David Grusch, a former intelligence official, publicly claimed the US government knows of alien life-forms, but no official government confirmation followed, and the market for near-term confirmation dates continued to decline.
UFO whistleblower David Grusch claims government aware of multiple alien types
December 31 dips to 10%4%
David Grusch, a UFO whistleblower, publicly claimed that the U.S. government is aware of several kinds of aliens, fueling speculation and media coverage. However, official agencies including AARO and the Pentagon denied any verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial materials or technology, maintaining the market's skepticism.
David Grusch alleges US government knows of multiple alien species
December 31 dips to 14%2%
Whistleblower Grusch claimed knowledge of several extraterrestrial species and secret programs, increasing public debate but lacking official confirmation, contributing to market uncertainty and price drops.
UFO whistleblower David Grusch provides detailed claims in press conference
December 31 rises to 16%2%
David Grusch, a UFO whistleblower, gave a press conference detailing claims about multiple alien species known to the US government, which briefly increased speculation but did not constitute official confirmation by government authorities.
UAP whistleblowers and lawmakers rally for disclosure and whistleblower protections
September 30 dips to 6%1%
At a Capitol rally, UFO whistleblower David Grusch and bipartisan lawmakers called for the release of remaining UAP records and protections for whistleblowers. This event highlighted ongoing political pressure for transparency but did not yield definitive confirmation, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
UFO whistleblower David Grusch testifies on government knowledge of alien species
David Grusch publicly claimed that the U.S. government is aware of several alien species, raising public and market speculation; however, no official government confirmation meeting market criteria was issued, so impact on prices was limited.
UFO whistleblower David Grusch alleges government knowledge of multiple alien species
At a press conference, whistleblower David Grusch claimed the US government is aware of several kinds of aliens and possesses related information. While these claims stirred public and market interest, no official government confirmation followed, limiting market impact.
NASA announces Artemis III mission update amid ongoing search for extraterrestrial life
NASA provided updates on its Artemis III lunar mission and emphasized the agency's commitment to exploring the possibility of extraterrestrial life. While this sustained public interest, it did not amount to official confirmation by the US government.
David Grusch holds press conference detailing alleged government knowledge of alien life
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Whistleblower David Grusch provided detailed claims about the US government's knowledge of extraterrestrial life, but official agencies denied these claims and no definitive confirmation was made, causing a drop in market prices for confirmation by June 30 and December 31.
Whistleblower David Grusch publicly accuses government of UFO cover-up at Capitol press conference
December 31 dips to 10%4%
David Grusch, a former intelligence officer and whistleblower, accused intelligence agencies of hiding knowledge of non-human intelligence and alien species, intensifying public debate but without official confirmation, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
Whistleblower David Grusch and lawmakers call for UAP transparency
December 31 dips to 14%2%
David Grusch and bipartisan lawmakers held a press conference demanding greater transparency and whistleblower protections regarding UAP programs, increasing public and political pressure but no official confirmation emerged.
Whistleblower David Grusch alleges government knowledge of multiple alien species
December 31 dips to 10%4%
At a press conference, UFO whistleblower David Grusch claimed the U.S. government is aware of several kinds of alien life forms, fueling speculation but no official confirmation from government authorities.
Whistleblower David Grusch details alleged government knowledge of alien life
December 31 rises to 16%2%
David Grusch, a UFO whistleblower, claimed the US government possesses knowledge of extraterrestrial life and technology, though official agencies denied these claims. This event briefly increased market speculation but did not lead to confirmation.
Whistleblower David Grusch and lawmakers call for UAP transparency at Capitol Hill press conference
September 30 dips to 7%3%
David Grusch, a UAP whistleblower, alongside bipartisan lawmakers, held a press conference demanding increased transparency and investigations into alleged secret UAP programs, fueling speculation but no official confirmation.
Whistleblower David Grusch holds press conference demanding full UAP disclosure
December 31 dips to 14%2%
David Grusch, a former intelligence officer and prominent UAP whistleblower, held a high-profile press conference on Capitol Hill with bipartisan lawmakers calling for the release of classified UAP and non-human intelligence materials. He alleged government possession of multiple forms of non-human life and reverse-engineering programs, intensifying public and political pressure for transparency.
AARO director signs report on mysterious orange 'mother orb' UAP sighting
June 30 dips to 6%4%
Dr. Jon Kosloski, director of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, signed a report detailing sightings of an orange 'mother orb' launching smaller red orbs in October 2023. The report was included in the June 12 file release, fueling speculation but not confirming extraterrestrial origin, contributing to market uncertainty.
NASA chief states high odds of alien life influencing space missions
December 31 dips to 14%2%
Statements by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman about the high probability of alien life and its impact on mission planning sustained public interest but did not constitute official confirmation, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
SETI Committee Updates Protocols for Announcing Extraterrestrial Intelligence
The International Academy of Astronautics updated its post-detection protocols for the first time in 15 years to manage public announcements in the age of social media. This scientific development shifted focus away from immediate government disclosure, as the guidelines emphasized scientific rigor over premature claims.
International Academy of Astronautics updates guidelines for confirming extraterrestrial life
The IAA released updated protocols to guide the verification and communication of potential intelligent extraterrestrial signals, reflecting scientific caution and transparency but no official US government confirmation, contributing to market uncertainty.
AARO director Jon Kosloski signs new report detailing mysterious UAP orbs
December 31 rises to 19%3%
Dr. Jon Kosloski, director of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, signed a report describing sightings of an orange 'mother orb' launching smaller red orbs, highlighting unresolved phenomena. This report fueled speculation and market interest but did not confirm extraterrestrial origin.
SETI updates protocols for announcing extraterrestrial intelligence
December 31 dips to 11%3%
The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) updated its guidelines to emphasize rigorous verification and transparency in announcing potential evidence of intelligent life, reflecting increased public interest but not indicating any confirmed discovery, which maintained low market confidence for near-term confirmation.
SETI updates guidance to prevent premature alien life announcements
December 31 dips to 14%2%
The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) updated its protocols to ensure careful verification and transparent communication of potential evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life. This scientific caution likely tempered market enthusiasm for imminent official confirmation.
SETI updates guidelines to prevent premature alien life announcements
September 30 dips to 7%4%
The International Academy of Astronautics updated protocols for confirming and announcing extraterrestrial intelligence discoveries, emphasizing rigorous verification and transparency, which influenced market caution about imminent confirmation.
White House launches controversial 'Aliens' website amid disclosure efforts
June 30 dips to 1%1%
The Trump administration launched a new official website themed around 'Aliens' as part of its declassification and public engagement strategy, which drew mixed reactions and did not provide new evidence, coinciding with a decline in market prices for near-term confirmation.
Experts emphasize lack of definitive proof of alien existence despite UFO disclosures
June 30 dips to 1%4%
Scientists and government investigators reiterated that no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial life has been found, contributing to a further decline in market prices for near-term confirmation.
Skeptical analysis suggests no conclusive UFO disclosure forthcoming
September 30 drops to 6%5%
An article in The Atlantic argued that the lack of definitive evidence in released files suggests no imminent confirmation of extraterrestrial life. This skepticism contributed to a decline in market prices for near-term outcomes like June 30 and September 30.
No official US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life despite file releases
Despite ongoing releases of UFO files and public interest, no definitive statement confirming extraterrestrial life was made by the President, Cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or federal agencies, leading to a decline in market prices for all short-term outcomes.
NASA astronaut announces planned test for extraterrestrial life on ISS
NASA astronaut Menon revealed plans to test for extraterrestrial life during an upcoming space mission, aligning with increased government transparency on UFOs. While not a confirmation, this scientific initiative maintained market interest in the possibility of disclosure.
Scientific discussion highlights ongoing search for extraterrestrial life despite lack of government confirmation
Scientific articles emphasized that while government files have been released, no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life has been confirmed, maintaining cautious market sentiment about near-term disclosure.
Trump directs Pentagon and agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs amid public interest
December 31 rises to 16%2%
President Trump publicly ordered government agencies to identify and release files related to extraterrestrials and UFOs, sparking initial market optimism for year-end confirmation but no definitive statements were made, leading to mixed market reactions.
Experts and skeptics emphasize lack of evidence for alien visitation
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Prominent scientists and government investigators reiterated that no verifiable proof of extraterrestrial visitation exists, reinforcing market skepticism and pushing prices for near-term confirmation lower.
No official US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life by end of May
Despite extensive file releases and public statements, no definitive confirmation from the President, Cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or federal agencies was made, leading to a decline in market prices for near-term confirmation dates.
White House launches alien-themed website focusing on immigration enforcement
December 31 drops to 13%5%
The Trump administration launched a website themed around 'aliens' that actually tracked immigration enforcement actions, which was widely mocked and did not contribute to belief in extraterrestrial confirmation, coinciding with a decline in market prices.
Trump administration launches 'aliens' website promoting immigration crackdown
December 31 dips to 14%4%
The White House launched a website about 'alien encounters' focusing on undocumented immigrants rather than extraterrestrials, which was widely mocked and did not affect market prices significantly but reflected the administration's messaging strategy.
Trump administration launches 'aliens' website with immigration focus
June 30 dips to 1%2%
The Trump administration launched a website titled 'Aliens' that controversially framed 'aliens' as undocumented immigrants rather than extraterrestrials. This move shifted public discourse away from UFO disclosure and may have influenced market sentiment negatively for near-term confirmation outcomes.
White House launches alien-themed website focusing on immigration enforcement
June 30 dips to 1%1%
The Trump administration launched a website named Aliens.gov that framed 'aliens' as undocumented immigrants rather than extraterrestrials, which was widely mocked and seen as a political move unrelated to UFO disclosure, dampening market enthusiasm for alien confirmation by near-term dates.
White House launches 'aliens' website linking aliens to immigration crackdown
December 31 dips to 10%4%
The Trump administration launched a website about 'alien encounters' that framed aliens as undocumented immigrants, which was widely mocked and did not advance extraterrestrial confirmation, contributing to market price decline.
White House launches Aliens.gov website focusing on immigration, not extraterrestrials
December 31 dips to 14%2%
The Trump administration launched a website titled Aliens.gov, which instead of confirming extraterrestrials, focused on immigration enforcement, causing public confusion and skepticism about official alien disclosure.
Trump administration launches 'aliens' themed website promoting immigration crackdown
December 31 dips to 14%3%
The White House launched a website using alien imagery to promote immigration enforcement, which was widely mocked and did not provide any confirmation of extraterrestrial life, contributing to a decline in market prices for near-term confirmation.
Trump administration launches 'Aliens.gov' website with immigration focus
December 31 dips to 14%2%
The administration launched a website using alien imagery to promote immigration enforcement, which was widely mocked and did not provide any confirmation of extraterrestrial life, contributing to market uncertainty and a price decline.
Pentagon releases new UFO files fueling public fascination but no alien proof
September 30 dips to 6%4%
A new batch of declassified Pentagon UFO materials was released, sparking public interest but officials and experts confirmed no evidence of extraterrestrial life was found, maintaining the official stance of uncertainty and no confirmation.
White House launches 'Aliens' website focusing on immigration, not extraterrestrials
June 30 dips to 2%1%
The White House launched a website titled 'Aliens' that appeared to offer information on extraterrestrials but actually provided data on immigrant arrests, causing confusion and skepticism about the administration's transparency on alien matters. This likely contributed to market skepticism and price declines for near-term confirmation outcomes.
White House launches aliens.gov website focused on immigration enforcement
September 30 drops to 4%10%
The White House launched aliens.gov, a website presenting data on illegal immigration rather than extraterrestrials, which was widely mocked and contributed to market skepticism and price declines for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Trump administration launches 'Aliens.gov' website linking aliens to undocumented immigrants
May 31 dips to 0%1%
The White House launched a controversial website framing 'aliens' as undocumented immigrants rather than extraterrestrials, which was widely mocked and contributed to market skepticism, particularly reducing prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
White House launches Aliens.gov website amid UFO file releases
December 31 dips to 14%2%
The Trump administration launched a website named Aliens.gov, which sparked controversy as it was perceived as unrelated to extraterrestrial life and instead focused on immigration issues. This move added confusion and skepticism to the market, contributing to price declines.
White House launches alien-themed website focusing on immigration enforcement
December 31 rises to 16%2%
The Trump administration launched a website titled 'Aliens.gov' that used alien imagery to promote immigration enforcement, which was widely mocked and did not provide any confirmation of extraterrestrial life, contributing to market uncertainty.
White House registers Aliens.gov domain fueling disclosure speculation
The White House registered the domain Aliens.gov, which sparked widespread speculation about imminent government disclosure of extraterrestrial life. This administrative move increased market interest but did not constitute a definitive confirmation, resulting in stable but modest market prices.
President Trump remarks on releasing extensive extraterrestrial information during cabinet meeting
December 31 rises to 16%2%
Trump's public statement about releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial matters briefly boosted market confidence in possible confirmation before year-end, causing a modest price uptick for the December 31 outcome.
President Trump remarks on ongoing release of extraterrestrial information
December 31 dips to 14%4%
Trump's comments about releasing 'extraterrestrial things' maintained some market interest but did not provide definitive confirmation, contributing to a moderate price decline for the December 31 outcome.
President Trump hints at releasing more information on extraterrestrial matters
December 31 rises to 20%3%
President Trump publicly stated that the government was releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial things, briefly boosting market optimism though no definitive confirmation was made.
President Trump publicly discusses ongoing release of extraterrestrial-related information
President Trump mentioned in a cabinet meeting that the government was releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial things, which sparked renewed public interest and speculation about imminent alien confirmation. However, he did not specify any definitive confirmation, and market prices showed only minor fluctuations.
President Trump discusses releasing extensive information on extraterrestrial matters
Trump mentioned in a cabinet meeting that his administration is releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial phenomena, which briefly supported market interest but did not change the confirmation outlook.
President Trump references extraterrestrial information release at White House event
December 31 rises to 16%2%
President Trump mentioned releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial matters during a White House event, briefly boosting market interest but not providing definitive confirmation, leading to minor price fluctuations.
President Trump references ongoing release of extraterrestrial-related information
During a cabinet meeting, President Trump mentioned that the government is releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial matters, sustaining some market interest but without definitive confirmation, keeping the December 31 outcome price stable around 14%.
President Trump references 'extraterrestrial things' in cabinet meeting
Trump mentioned releasing information about 'extraterrestrial things' during a cabinet meeting, sparking renewed speculation but without definitive confirmation, causing a modest market uptick followed by decline.
President Trump shares AI-generated alien-themed posts on social media
December 31 rises to 16%2%
President Trump posted AI-generated images depicting himself with aliens, which attracted media attention but did not constitute official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, contributing to market uncertainty and minor price volatility.
President Trump references 'extraterrestrial things' in cabinet meeting
May 31 dips to 0%2%
President Trump mentioned 'extraterrestrial things' during a cabinet meeting open to media, sparking renewed speculation but without definitive confirmation. This statement had limited impact on market prices, which remained low for near-term outcomes.
Trump says administration is releasing many extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 20%4%
During a televised cabinet meeting, Trump told reporters the administration was "releasing a lot of information" on extraterrestrial matters. The remark reignited optimism, causing the market to jump from 16 % to 20 % for the December‑31 outcome on May 28.
President Trump publicly states 'We're releasing a lot of information' on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 20%2%
During a cabinet meeting, Trump remarked that the government is releasing extensive information on extraterrestrial matters, briefly boosting market confidence in a possible confirmation before year-end.
Trump mentions 'extraterrestrial things' during cabinet meeting
December 31 dips to 14%2%
President Trump referenced 'extraterrestrial things' in a cabinet meeting open to media, sparking renewed speculation about alien confirmation. However, the statement was not definitive, resulting in limited market impact and continued low prices for near-term outcomes.
President Trump publicly discusses extraterrestrial matters in Cabinet meeting
President Trump mentioned releasing information related to extraterrestrial things during a Cabinet meeting, reinforcing the administration's commitment to transparency but without definitive confirmation of alien existence. This maintained market interest but did not boost probabilities significantly.
President Trump Mentions 'Extraterrestrial Things' During Cabinet Meeting
June 30 dips to 2%1%
During a cabinet meeting, Trump noted that the administration was releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial things. However, the lack of a definitive statement kept the odds of a near-term June 30 resolution very low.
President Trump speaks on releasing information about extraterrestrial things
Trump's remarks during a cabinet meeting about releasing information related to extraterrestrial phenomena briefly raised market optimism but lacked definitive confirmation, resulting in limited price impact and slight fluctuations.
President Trump mentions 'extraterrestrial things' in cabinet meeting
December 31 rises to 21%3%
Trump's public mention of releasing information on extraterrestrial matters during a cabinet meeting briefly reignited speculation and caused a modest price increase, though the statement was not definitive confirmation.
President Trump comments on ongoing release of extraterrestrial information
December 31 drops to 14%6%
Trump's public remarks about continuing releases of extraterrestrial information maintained market interest but lacked any definitive confirmation, causing mixed price reactions and some decline in near-term outcome prices.
President Trump publicly discusses releasing information on extraterrestrial matters
December 31 dips to 14%1%
During a cabinet meeting, President Trump mentioned releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial things, which briefly raised market optimism. However, no definitive confirmation was made, and the market price soon declined.
President Trump reiterates ongoing release of extraterrestrial information
December 31 dips to 14%4%
Trump's public remarks about continuing to release information on extraterrestrial matters during a cabinet meeting maintained market interest but did not provide new evidence, contributing to price volatility and eventual declines in short-term outcomes.
President Trump mentions releasing information on extraterrestrial things in cabinet meeting
December 31 rises to 20%2%
Trump's public mention of releasing information about extraterrestrials renewed some market interest, causing a modest uptick in the December 31 outcome price, though no definitive confirmation was made.
President Trump references extraterrestrial matters in cabinet meeting
Trump mentioned releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial things during a cabinet meeting, which briefly influenced market optimism but did not constitute a definitive confirmation.
President Trump comments on extraterrestrial matters during cabinet meeting
President Trump spoke about releasing information related to extraterrestrial things, which briefly raised market optimism but lacked definitive confirmation, resulting in limited price impact.
President Trump references ongoing releases of extraterrestrial information
December 31 dips to 16%4%
During a cabinet meeting, President Trump mentioned releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial matters, sustaining public interest but not providing definitive confirmation, which kept market prices relatively stable.
President Trump hints at upcoming UFO information releases
At a White House event, President Trump stated his administration will release "a lot of things" about UFOs soon, fueling speculation and a brief market uptick, though no official confirmation of alien existence was made.
Trump cites “extraterrestrial things” in open cabinet meeting
December 31 rises to 20%2%
During a televised cabinet meeting Trump remarked, “We’re releasing a lot of information having to do with extraterrestrial…things,” briefly reviving market interest and causing a modest price uptick for the long‑term outcome.
Trump posts AI‑generated alien image on Truth Social
December 31 rises to 14%1%
Trump shared an AI‑generated image of himself with an alien in a Truth Social post, reigniting speculation and causing a modest uptick in the “December 31” price on 2026‑05‑28 before the market again retreated.
President Trump speaks on 'extraterrestrial things' at cabinet meeting
Trump mentioned releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial things during a cabinet meeting, which briefly boosted market optimism but did not amount to official confirmation, causing minor price fluctuations.
President Trump references upcoming releases on extraterrestrial matters
December 31 rises to 16%2%
During a cabinet meeting, President Trump mentioned that the administration was releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial things, maintaining market interest but without providing any definitive confirmation.
President Trump comments on releasing extensive information about extraterrestrial matters
December 31 rises to 17%1%
During a cabinet meeting, President Trump stated that his administration is releasing "a lot of things" related to extraterrestrial phenomena, which briefly increased market interest but did not constitute official confirmation, leading to minor price volatility.
President Trump mentions releasing extensive extraterrestrial information
December 31 jumps to 18%5%
During a cabinet meeting, Trump noted the government was releasing extensive information on extraterrestrial matters, briefly boosting market confidence in a possible confirmation before year-end, causing a modest price uptick.
White House launches alien-themed website focusing on immigration enforcement
September 30 dips to 8%1%
The launch of an alien-themed website by the White House, which focused on immigration rather than extraterrestrials, was seen as a political move and led to skepticism, impacting market sentiment and depressing prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
President Trump publicly references extraterrestrial matters during cabinet meeting
President Trump mentioned "extraterrestrial things" in a media-open cabinet meeting, renewing public and market interest in potential confirmation. However, no definitive statement confirming alien existence was made, so market prices showed only modest movement.
White House launches alien-themed website focused on immigration enforcement
December 31 dips to 14%4%
The White House registered and launched an alien-themed website that focused on immigration enforcement rather than extraterrestrial life, which was widely mocked and led to skepticism, contributing to a decline in market prices for near-term confirmation.
Pentagon reiterates no evidence of extraterrestrial technology despite extensive UFO files
May 31 dips to 0%3%
Pentagon officials and experts reiterated that despite the extensive declassified files and public interest, no verifiable evidence of alien technology or contact has been found, which contributed to declining prices for earlier resolution dates like May 31 and June 30.
Second tranche of UFO files released by Pentagon
September 30 drops to 6%8%
Following the initial release, the Pentagon issued a second batch of UFO-related documents, continuing transparency efforts but again providing no definitive proof of alien life, causing a slight market price decline for shorter-term outcomes.
Second batch of UFO files released by U.S. government
December 31 dips to 14%4%
The U.S. government released a second tranche of previously classified UFO files, which included witness accounts and sightings but no confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life, tempering market enthusiasm.
Pentagon unveils second batch of once-classified UFO reports
December 31 dips to 14%4%
The Defense Department released a second tranche of declassified UFO files, including reports of unusual sightings and intelligence officer accounts, maintaining public interest but without confirming alien existence, leading to moderate market price fluctuations.
Pentagon releases second batch of UFO videos and testimony
May 31 drops to 0%6%
A second tranche of UFO files was released, continuing transparency efforts but again providing no conclusive evidence of alien life, which tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price declines for earlier confirmation dates.
Second batch of U.S. government UFO files released amid mixed public reactions
December 31 dips to 16%2%
Following the initial release, a second batch of UFO files was published, continuing the transparency effort but again providing no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life. Public and market reactions were mixed, reflecting ongoing skepticism and uncertainty.
Pentagon posts second set of declassified UFO files
December 31 dips to 14%4%
A second batch of UAP documents was posted to the PURSUE site. The follow‑up release dampened speculation that a definitive extraterrestrial statement was imminent, contributing to the slide of the “December 31” odds to the low‑teens by late May.
Second batch of UFO files released by Pentagon
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Following the initial release, the Pentagon published a second set of declassified UFO files. These releases continued to fuel public interest but did not provide definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, causing some market volatility and a decline in shorter-term outcome prices.
Second release of UFO files by US government
September 30 dips to 14%2%
A second batch of declassified UFO files was released, receiving mixed public reactions and failing to provide definitive proof of extraterrestrial life, leading to a decline in market prices for short-term outcomes.
Second release of UFO files by U.S. government amid mixed public reactions
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Following the initial May release, a second tranche of UFO files was published, continuing transparency efforts but failing to provide definitive proof of extraterrestrial life, further dampening market confidence in near-term outcomes.
Second batch of US government declassified UFO files released
December 31 dips to 14%2%
Following the initial release, a second tranche of over 50 videos and documents was made public, featuring witness reports of strange phenomena but no government confirmation of extraterrestrial origin. Market prices remained low as skepticism persisted.
Second tranche of UFO/UAP files released by US government
A second batch of around 64 files, including documents, audio, and video, was released, providing more substantial footage but still lacking definitive proof of alien technology, leading to mixed market reactions and price declines.
Pentagon reiterates no evidence of extraterrestrial origin in released UFO files
June 30 dips to 3%3%
Alongside the second release, the Pentagon reiterated that there is no evidence to suggest any of the objects or testimonies indicate extraterrestrial life. This statement reinforced skepticism in the market, contributing to the decline in short-term outcome prices.
US releases second batch of declassified UFO files including new sightings
September 30 dips to 10%4%
The Defense Department released a second batch of UFO files with reports of unexplained phenomena but no conclusive alien evidence, leading to a moderate price drop for the September 30 outcome.
Second tranche of UFO files released, continuing transparency efforts
June 30 dips to 3%4%
A second release of declassified UFO files occurred, maintaining transparency but again lacking conclusive evidence of alien technology, which contributed to further declines in market prices for near-term outcomes.
Second batch of government declassified UFO files released
December 31 dips to 14%2%
The U.S. Defense Department released a second set of previously classified UFO files, including reports of unexplained phenomena. Experts noted no conclusive evidence of alien technology, and public skepticism persisted, causing market prices to fluctuate slightly downward.
Pentagon releases second tranche of UFO videos and testimony
June 30 dips to 0%3%
The Pentagon released additional UFO videos and documents, continuing transparency efforts but without confirming alien existence, which led to further market declines in short-term outcome prices.
Second wave of UAP files published on PURSUE site
December 31 rises to 16%2%
A second batch of UAP files was released on May 22, containing additional historical records but still no conclusive proof. The market reacted with a modest rebound for the December‑31 outcome (up to 16%) before settling back, showing that each release briefly revived optimism.
Second release of declassified UFO files maintains transparency but lacks alien proof
September 30 drops to 6%5%
A second tranche of 64 files including videos and audio related to UAPs was released, continuing the disclosure process but failing to provide definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to declines in market prices for near-term confirmation dates.
U.S. government releases second batch of UFO and extraterrestrial documents
The Pentagon released a second batch of declassified UFO and extraterrestrial documents following the initial release, continuing the transparency initiative but without confirming extraterrestrial life.
Second wave of UFO files released by Pentagon under Trump directive
September 30 dips to 9%1%
A second batch of previously classified UFO files was released, including videos and testimonies. The Pentagon stated no evidence suggested extraterrestrial origin, maintaining the files as unresolved cases, which tempered market optimism about official confirmation.
US Government Releases Second Batch of Declassified UFO Files
The Defense Department published a second batch of declassified files on the PURSUE portal, which experts again stated showed no evidence of alien technology.
Second batch of declassified UFO files released by Pentagon
December 31 dips to 18%2%
The Pentagon released a second batch of previously classified UFO files, which included reports of strange aerial phenomena but did not confirm extraterrestrial life, leading to mixed public reactions and market fluctuations.
Pentagon and Trump clarify UFO files do not confirm extraterrestrial life
May 31 dips to 0%1%
Following the May 22 release, the Pentagon and President Trump stated the documents do not provide confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life, reinforcing market skepticism and price drops for short-term outcomes.
Second batch of US UFO files released with no confirmation of alien life
May 31 dips to 0%1%
A second release of declassified UFO files occurred, again without definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to a sharp decline in market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Second batch of declassified UFO files posted, still no alien confirmation
June 30 drops to 3%7%
A second tranche of UAP documents was posted to PURSUE. Like the first release, the batch presented only unresolved cases, further dampening optimism for any confirmation before June 30, pushing the “June 30” odds down to 3 % by 2026‑05‑25.
Second batch of UAP files released amid mixed public reactions
December 31 dips to 14%4%
Following the initial release, a second set of UFO files was made public, continuing the transparency effort but still lacking definitive evidence of extraterrestrial technology, which tempered market optimism.
Pentagon issues second batch of UAP videos and testimonies
September 30 drops to 5%7%
A second tranche of UAP documents and videos was released, again without confirming alien existence. The additional data reinforced market scepticism, pulling the September‑30 probability from 14 % to 5 % by early June.
Pentagon releases additional declassified UFO files including intriguing videos
December 31 dips to 19%2%
A second tranche of over 50 declassified UFO files and videos was released by the Pentagon, providing more data but no definitive proof of extraterrestrial technology, causing market prices to stabilize.
Pentagon emphasizes public can 'make up their own minds' on UFO files
The Pentagon stated that the newly released UFO files are for public interpretation and contain no confirmation of alien technology, which maintained low market prices for short-term outcomes like June 30 at 3%.
Pentagon Releases Second Batch of Declassified UFO Videos and Testimony
The Pentagon released its second batch of declassified UFO files and videos. Like the first release, the documents offered no conclusive evidence of alien technology or extraterrestrial life, further dampening market expectations.
Pentagon and Department of War confirm ongoing rolling release of UFO files
December 31 dips to 16%3%
Officials confirmed that additional UFO files would be released on a rolling basis, but no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial life was presented. This tempered market enthusiasm, with prices stabilizing or declining for near-term outcomes while December 31 remained relatively higher.
Pentagon releases second tranche of UFO videos and documents
December 31 dips to 16%3%
Following the initial release, the Pentagon published a second set of UFO files, continuing the transparency initiative. The files again did not provide definitive evidence of alien life, leading to mixed public reactions and a slight market price decline.
Pentagon Releases Second Tranche of Declassified UAP Records
September 30 dips to 9%2%
The US government released its second batch of declassified UFO files. The lack of definitive alien confirmation in this second release contributed to a steady downward trend in the September 30 and December 31 outcomes.
Pentagon Discloses Second Batch of UFO Files and Videos
The US government released a second set of declassified files and videos, but experts quickly noted they contained no proof of alien technology, causing the probability of the September 30 outcome to drop.
Pentagon releases second batch of UFO files
December 31 dips to 18%2%
Following the initial release, the Pentagon published a second tranche of declassified UFO files. The continued release maintained public interest but did not provide definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, causing a slight market price decline.
Pentagon releases second batch of UFO videos and documents
June 30 dips to 5%2%
A second tranche of UFO files was released, continuing transparency efforts but again providing no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to a decline in market prices for near-term outcomes.
Second tranche of UFO files released with mixed public and scientific reactions
December 31 drops to 16%5%
The follow-up release of UFO files maintained public interest but failed to provide conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to some market price declines as skepticism persisted.
Second tranche of declassified UFO files released by Pentagon
Following the initial May 8 release, the Pentagon published additional files including photos and reports, maintaining transparency but without definitive proof of aliens, contributing to continued low market prices for near-term outcomes.
Second release of UFO files follows initial disclosure
December 31 drops to 14%5%
A second batch of declassified UFO files was released, continuing the transparency effort but again providing no conclusive proof of alien life. Public and scientific responses remained skeptical, contributing to a decline in market confidence.
Pentagon spokesperson announces more UFO documents are being processed for publication
Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announced on social media that additional UFO documents are actively being processed for publication, signaling ongoing transparency efforts and sustaining market interest.
Pentagon spokesperson announces more UFO documents are being processed for release
May 31 dips to 2%1%
Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announced that additional UFO-related documents are actively being processed for publication, signaling ongoing disclosure efforts. This maintained moderate market interest but did not significantly increase probabilities for near-term confirmation.
Trump shares AI-generated alien images on social media
December 31 dips to 16%1%
President Trump posted AI-generated images depicting himself with aliens, which fueled public speculation and briefly influenced market sentiment, though it did not constitute official confirmation.
President Trump shares AI-generated alien images on social media
May 31 drops to 0%6%
President Trump posted AI-generated images depicting himself with aliens on his official social media account, reinforcing public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. While symbolic, this event kept the topic in public discourse and influenced market sentiment for near-term confirmation.
Pentagon spokesperson confirms more UFO documents are being processed for release
June 30 drops to 1%5%
Sean Parnell, Pentagon spokesperson, announced on social media that additional UFO-related documents are actively being processed for publication, signaling ongoing disclosure efforts but no definitive confirmation yet, which contributed to price declines for near-term outcomes.
Trump posts AI-generated images depicting aliens, fueling public intrigue
President Trump shared AI-generated images on social media showing himself with extraterrestrial beings, which increased public and market attention on the topic but did not constitute official confirmation of alien existence.
Pentagon says released UFO files show no alien evidence
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell posted on X that the recently released documents contain no evidence of extraterrestrial life, underscoring the lack of a definitive statement and pushing the “June 30” outcome down to the low single‑digit range.
Pentagon says more UFO documents are being processed for release
December 31 rises to 21%2%
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announced that additional UAP documents were “actively being processed for publication,” keeping the market’s optimism alive but also signaling that no definitive confirmation was imminent, which moderated the price rise.
President Trump posts AI-generated image of himself with a shackled alien
President Trump posted an AI-generated image on Truth Social depicting himself walking alongside a shackled alien, shortly after the Pentagon's first release of UFO files. The image was satirical but reignited public and media attention on the topic of extraterrestrial life and government disclosure.
Trump shares AI-generated alien images amid UFO file releases
September 30 rises to 10%3%
President Trump posted AI-generated images of aliens on social media shortly after the Department of War's UFO file releases, fueling public speculation and interest in alien confirmation. This event coincided with a brief market price increase for the September 30 outcome.
Luna, Burchett push for rapid release of alleged alien tech evidence
December 31 rises to 20%2%
Luna and Burchett publicly demanded that the administration immediately release any evidence of alien technology, framing the issue as a national‑security priority. Their high‑profile lobbying contributed to the brief surge in the **December 31** price to 20 % on 7 May before the subsequent releases dampened momentum.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announces Pentagon will release additional UFO videos soon
September 30 dips to 7%3%
Rep. Luna publicly stated that the Pentagon would release more UFO videos, maintaining some market interest but insufficient to reverse the downward trend in near-term outcome prices.
Market reaches low of 6% on Iran war economic disruption
May 31 drops to 1%5%
The market hit a low of 6% on May 15 due to ongoing economic disruption from the Iran war, including surging gasoline prices and global oil supply concerns.
AARO says released UFO files contain no alien evidence
December 31 drops to 6%6%
AARO released a statement that, after reviewing the newly published files, it had found no evidence of extraterrestrial technology. The clarification dampened expectations and drove the December‑31 probability down to a low of 6 % on May 15.
U.S. announces $6 million aid package for Cuba amid energy blockade
May 31 dips to 1%1%
On May 15, the State Department announced an additional $6 million humanitarian aid for Cuba as the island faced an energy blockade. The announcement was seen as a concession that reduced immediate pressure for a dramatic U.S. disclosure, contributing to the sharp drop of the May 31 contract to 1% and keeping June 30 at 2%.
Scientific community reviews released UFO files, finds no evidence of alien technology
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Astrophysicists and scientists reviewed the newly released UFO files and concluded that the materials showed no evidence of artificial or alien origin, dampening market enthusiasm and causing prices for June 30 and May 31 outcomes to drop to near zero.
Market reacts to congressional and Pentagon delays in releasing demanded UAP videos
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Despite congressional deadlines, the Pentagon missed the April 14 deadline to release 46 specific UAP videos demanded by Rep. Luna, causing market prices for near-term outcomes to decline due to perceived delays and lack of definitive disclosure.
UAP research community reacts to Trump’s first PURSUE file drop
December 31 drops to 14%7%
Experts and officials noted that the released files did not provide definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, tempering market enthusiasm and contributing to a decline in the probability of near-term confirmation.
AARO officials maintain no evidence of extraterrestrial technology in UAP cases
September 30 drops to 9%5%
Leaders of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office briefed Congress stating no evidence confirms UAP cases involve extraterrestrial activity, reinforcing official positions and dampening market optimism.
UAP research community reacts to first PURSUE file drop
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Experts and researchers responded to the initial release of UFO files, noting the lack of conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial origin, which tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price volatility.
UAP research community reacts skeptically to first PURSUE file drop
December 31 drops to 14%6%
Scientists and experts reviewed the initial UFO files and found no conclusive evidence of alien technology, tempering market enthusiasm and causing a price decline for the December 31 outcome.
UAP research community reacts cautiously to Trump’s first PURSUE file drop
December 31 dips to 18%3%
Experts and scientists reviewed the newly released files and concluded they contained no conclusive evidence of alien technology, which moderated market enthusiasm and contributed to price declines.
Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi film 'Disclosure Day' trailer released, fueling public fascination
The release of the trailer for a major film about extraterrestrial disclosure increased public interest and discussion about alien confirmation, contributing to market attention though not directly affecting official confirmation probabilities.
Market sentiment cools on UFO disclosure as Pentagon files fail to provide evidence
December 31 dips to 14%4%
Following the initial release of UFO files in April, the lack of any definitive confirmation of extraterrestrial life led to a steady decline in the market price for all outcomes as traders realized the government was not moving toward a formal confirmation.
NASA updates 2026 mission plans amid ongoing space exploration
December 31 dips to 14%4%
NASA announced updates to its 2026 mission plans, including the Lunabotics Challenge and agency realignment, which maintained public interest in space but did not provide evidence of extraterrestrial life, contributing to a price drop for the December 31 outcome from 18% to 14%.
Market odds for US alien confirmation nearly double after UFO file release
December 31 rises to 22%2%
Following the May 8 release of UAP files, the prediction market's total implied probability for US government confirmation of alien existence rose from about 42% to 80%, reflecting heightened optimism but also a shift toward later expected confirmation dates.
U.S. and Venezuela explore restoring diplomatic relations after Maduro’s capture
A joint statement on May 12 reported that the United States and Venezuela were beginning talks to restore diplomatic ties following the U.S. capture of Maduro. The development suggested a possible de‑escalation of the broader geopolitical climate, reinforcing traders’ belief that a near‑term alien‑confirmation announcement was unlikely, further depressing all contracts.
Trump publicly discusses extraterrestrial matters during cabinet meeting
President Trump mentioned releasing information related to extraterrestrial life during a cabinet meeting, reinforcing market interest and maintaining elevated prices for the December 31 outcome despite no new definitive evidence.
Pentagon announces end of Stars and Stripes ‘woke’ content overhaul
September 30 drops to 6%7%
The Pentagon’s move to tighten control over its own military newspaper signaled a shift toward tighter information management, further dampening market optimism and pushing the September‑30 price down to 6% and the December‑31 price to 14%.
Japanese government confirms review of UAP files following US disclosure
December 31 dips to 18%1%
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara confirmed the government is analyzing UAP files released by the US, indicating international coordination and sustaining market interest in ongoing disclosures.
US government files reveal decades of UFO investigations but no alien confirmation
December 31 dips to 18%2%
Released files included historical documents dating back to the 1940s and NASA mission transcripts, but officials emphasized these do not constitute proof of extraterrestrial life, which moderated market enthusiasm.
Federal judge blocks Pentagon policy limiting reporters’ access
May 31 dips to 1%2%
A court ruling that forced the Pentagon to restore press credentials reduced speculation that the agency would soon make a definitive alien‑existence statement, contributing to a sharp drop in all outcomes; the May‑31 price fell from 3% to 1% and the September‑30 price from 13% to 6%.
Former President Obama clarifies no government concealment of alien evidence
December 31 dips to 13%3%
Obama stated that the US government is not hiding evidence of extraterrestrial life and that no confirmed contact occurred during his presidency, which dampened market enthusiasm for imminent confirmation.
Media coverage highlights Trump’s UFO files release and public reaction
June 30 drops to 1%9%
Extensive media coverage of the UFO files release emphasized the lack of conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, influencing public and market sentiment to remain skeptical and cautious about near-term confirmation.
Trump orders Pentagon to release dozens of classified UFO files
December 31 drops to 16%5%
Following Trump's directive, the Defense Department released around 160 previously classified UFO files, providing unprecedented transparency but no conclusive evidence of alien life, leading to mixed market reactions and price declines.
US Government Releases First Batch of Declassified UFO Files Under PURSUE Initiative
December 31 dips to 18%3%
The Trump administration launched the PURSUE declassification portal and released the first batch of declassified UAP files. While the release generated massive public interest, it did not contain definitive proof of extraterrestrial life, causing the December 31 price to stabilize and eventually decline.
Pentagon releases first batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 dips to 16%4%
Following Trump's directive, the Pentagon released hundreds of declassified files on UFOs and unidentified anomalous phenomena, but the documents contained no definitive evidence confirming extraterrestrial life, leading to mixed market reactions.
U.S. government begins rolling release of UFO files related to alien life and UAPs
December 31 rises to 20%2%
Following Trump's directive, the U.S. government started a rolling release of documents on UFOs and possible extraterrestrial life, including summaries of multiple government employee sightings. This sustained market interest but lacked definitive proof, leading to moderate price fluctuations.
Pentagon's initial UFO files release receives mixed public reactions
December 31 dips to 16%2%
Following the release of the first batch of UFO files, the Pentagon stated the materials did not provide confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to mixed public and market reactions. This tempered some of the initial enthusiasm, causing minor price fluctuations in the market.
First batch of 160 declassified UFO/UAP files released by U.S. government
The initial release of declassified documents included military reports and NASA records but did not confirm extraterrestrial life, causing mixed public reactions and stabilizing market prices around 18% for December 31.
Trump administration begins ongoing declassification of UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 dips to 20%1%
Following the initial release, the Trump administration announced a continuing effort to declassify and release government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, sustaining market interest but without definitive confirmation.
Pentagon Launches PURSUE Portal and Releases First Tranche of UFO Files
September 30 dips to 12%1%
The Department of Defense released over 160 declassified files and launched the PURSUE website, though experts noted they contained no proof of alien life.
U.S. Department of War releases first tranche of 160 declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 21%2%
The Department of War published a large batch of declassified documents, photos, videos, and reports on UFOs and UAPs dating back to the 1940s, including Apollo mission transcripts, but did not confirm extraterrestrial life, leading to a spike in market interest.
Pentagon releases first tranche of declassified UAP files
May 31 drops to 0%6%
The Pentagon, via the Department of War, launched the PURSUE website and released 161 previously classified UAP files, including Apollo mission photos. The batch contained no definitive proof of extraterrestrials, prompting a sharp drop in the May‑31 and June‑30 odds (from 6% to 0% and from 10% to 2%).
First tranche of declassified UFO files released by US government
December 31 dips to 14%4%
The Department of Defense released 162 files on unidentified aerial phenomena, but none provided evidence of extraterrestrial origin, leading to mixed public reactions and a decline in market prices for near-term confirmation.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files under Trump directive
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon started releasing dozens of previously classified UFO files, including videos and documents, as part of a rolling disclosure effort ordered by President Trump, sustaining market interest but without confirming alien existence.
Pentagon Releases First Tranche of Declassified UFO Files Under PURSUE Directive
June 30 dips to 6%2%
The Pentagon published its initial batch of 162 declassified UAP files. While the release generated massive public interest, it explicitly contained no confirmation of extraterrestrial life, leading to a downward trend for near-term outcomes.
FBI and Pentagon documents on UFOs released to public
December 31 rises to 19%2%
The FBI handed over classified UAP documents to the Pentagon-led committee, which were then released publicly. This reinforced the administration's commitment to transparency but did not confirm alien existence, causing mixed market reactions.
Pentagon begins releasing first batch of UFO files
The Department of War announced the initial release of new, never-before-seen files on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena as part of a transparency effort, sustaining market interest but lacking definitive proof of extraterrestrial life, causing moderate price fluctuations.
President Trump announces UFO‑transparency initiative and three‑day Russia‑Ukraine ceasefire
December 31 rises to 20%2%
Trump’s public pledge to increase UFO transparency and his social‑media post urging the public to draw its own conclusions revived hopes of an official alien acknowledgment, briefly raising the December‑31 price to 20% before a rapid decline the next day as analysts questioned the substance of the promise.
Pentagon releases first tranche of declassified UFO files
December 31 dips to 19%3%
The Pentagon released 162 previously classified files on UFOs and UAPs as part of a transparency effort directed by President Trump. The files did not confirm extraterrestrial life but increased public and market attention, causing a brief price rise followed by decline as no definitive evidence emerged.
Pentagon releases additional UFO files with public encouraged to interpret
December 31 dips to 17%3%
On May 8, 2026, the Pentagon released more UFO files, including images and documents, continuing its transparency initiative. This event maintained market interest in the December 31 outcome but did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to some price volatility.
Pentagon releases declassified UFO files after Trump directive
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
The Pentagon's release of UFO files increased market optimism sharply, with the December 31 outcome price peaking, reflecting hopes for imminent confirmation despite no definitive evidence disclosed.
Department of Defense launches PURSUE system to release military UFO data
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon launched the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) to publicly release military data on UFO phenomena, temporarily boosting market confidence in forthcoming disclosures.
U.S. government releases first batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 dips to 14%4%
The Pentagon and other agencies released around 160 declassified documents and videos related to UFOs and unexplained aerial phenomena, but the files did not confirm extraterrestrial life, tempering market optimism.
Trump orders release of 161 declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Trump directed the Pentagon and other agencies to release previously classified UFO and extraterrestrial-related files, including military and Apollo mission documents. This unprecedented transparency led to a spike in market prices for longer-term outcomes but did not confirm alien existence.
Trump‑led administration releases first batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
The Pentagon released the first 160‑file tranche of declassified UAP material under the PURSUE program. The flood of documents briefly lifted the market to 21 % (priceBefore = 14, priceAfter = 21).
Pentagon releases 162 declassified UFO files to the public
December 31 rises to 21%2%
The Pentagon’s first batch of 162 declassified UAP records was posted on war.gov/UFO, the largest ever government disclosure of UFO material. The release generated a flurry of media stories and pushed the **December 31** probability up to 21 % on 23 Apr before a gradual decline as the files proved inconclusive.
Trump administration releases declassified UAP files with Apollo mission photos
May 31 drops to 1%5%
The Trump administration’s release of UFO files including Apollo 12 and 17 photos and transcripts was part of a transparency initiative but did not confirm alien existence, causing market prices to decline for short-term outcomes.
Pentagon releases first batch of declassified UFO files with no alien confirmation
May 31 drops to 0%6%
The Department of War and other agencies released 162 declassified files on UFOs and UAPs as directed by President Trump, but the documents contained no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial life, causing a sharp drop in market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Pentagon releases over 160 declassified UFO files dating back decades
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
The Pentagon and Department of War released a large tranche of declassified documents related to UFOs and UAPs, including military reports and NASA mission records, but found no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, causing a spike then partial retreat in market prices.
U.S. Department of Defense releases first batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%1%
The Department of Defense complied with President Trump's order by releasing dozens of documents and images related to UAPs, but the files contained no sensational revelations or confirmation of extraterrestrial life. This release maintained market interest but did not substantiate claims of alien existence.
Pentagon continues releasing UFO files with retro-themed website
December 31 dips to 14%4%
The Pentagon unveiled a new website hosting UFO files with military imagery and typewriter font, releasing 162 files including State Department cables and NASA transcripts. This ongoing release maintained public interest but did not include any definitive confirmation of alien existence, contributing to market fluctuations and a decline in short-term resolution probabilities.
Pentagon releases additional UFO files amid public and scientific scrutiny
May 31 dips to 3%2%
Additional files released by the Pentagon included decades of military memos and reports from Apollo missions, but official statements continued to deny evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to price volatility and declines in shorter-term outcomes.
US Government Releases First Tranche of Declassified UFO Files Under PURSUE
December 31 dips to 18%3%
The Pentagon released its first batch of declassified UAP files, which failed to provide any evidence of alien technology or extraterrestrial life, leading to a peak and subsequent decline in market confidence.
Trump administration releases first tranche of declassified UAP files to public
December 31 drops to 14%5%
The Department of War published 162 declassified documents, photos, and videos on UAPs, accessible without clearance, marking the most extensive transparency effort to date. However, no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life was confirmed, tempering market enthusiasm.
Pentagon releases initial batch of declassified UFO files under Trump directive
December 31 drops to 16%5%
The Pentagon released hundreds of declassified files on UFOs, but these did not confirm extraterrestrial life, causing mixed market reactions and skepticism.
US military aircraft encounters 'super-hot' orb during nighttime mission, Pentagon files reveal
December 31 dips to 18%1%
Among the released files was a detailed report of a 2025 military encounter with a 'super-hot' orb exhibiting unusual behavior, fueling public intrigue but without official confirmation of extraterrestrial origin, impacting market sentiment for December 31.
Pentagon makes historic UFO disclosure amid political controversy
December 31 rises to 16%2%
The Pentagon's disclosure of UFO files was seen by some as a truth effort and by others as a political smokescreen during Trump's unpopularity, which briefly increased market interest but did not yield confirmation of aliens.
Pentagon releases first wave of declassified UAP files via PURSUE
December 31 rises to 18%2%
The Pentagon launched the PURSUE website and released 162 previously classified UAP documents, including Apollo‑era photos. The release temporarily lifted optimism for a December‑31 confirmation, pushing the “December 31” price to 18 % on May 9 before a rapid decline.
President Trump announces strategic reserve for rare‑earth elements
December 31 dips to 14%3%
While unrelated to UFOs, the announcement shifted market focus to broader defense and technology policy, pulling attention away from alien‑confirmation speculation and contributing to a 3‑point drop in the December‑31 price on May 9.
Pentagon releases new UFO files with no evidence of alien technology
December 31 dips to 19%2%
The Pentagon began releasing new files on UFOs but stated there was no evidence confirming alien technology, tempering market enthusiasm and causing a slight price decline for the December 31 outcome from 21% to 19%.
Pentagon releases de‑classified UFO/UAP files, fueling speculation
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
The Pentagon released a batch of de‑classified UAP files on May 8‑9. Although the documents contained no definitive proof, the unprecedented release raised speculation that a confirmation could follow, lifting the December 31 price to a 21 % peak on May 8 before falling back to 16 % on May 9.
Pentagon releases initial batch of declassified UFO files under Trump directive
June 30 drops to 5%5%
The Pentagon published over 160 previously classified files on UFOs and UAPs, including military and NASA reports, as part of a transparency initiative. However, no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life was confirmed, causing market prices for short-term outcomes to decline.
Pentagon publishes first batch of declassified UAP files
December 31 drops to 14%7%
The Pentagon released the first tranche of declassified UAP documents (161 files) via the new PURSUE website. The batch contained no definitive proof of extraterrestrials, prompting a brief rally followed by a sharp decline as traders reassessed the chances of a confirmation.
Pentagon publishes first batch of declassified UFO files
June 30 dips to 8%2%
The Pentagon released the first tranche of 162 declassified UAP files (the “PURSUE” collection). The release contained no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrials, triggering a sharp drop in the short‑term (June‑30) probability from 10 % to 8 % and pulling the September‑30 price down to 14 %.
US Department of War launches PURSUE system to release declassified UAP files
December 31 rises to 21%4%
The Department of War began releasing a large collection of declassified UAP files through the PURSUE system, marking the first coordinated multi-agency disclosure effort and drawing significant public attention.
First batch of declassified UAP files released by Department of War
December 31 rises to 18%1%
The U.S. Department of War published the first tranche of declassified records on unidentified anomalous phenomena, marking the start of a rolling release of files that increased public scrutiny but did not confirm extraterrestrial life.
U.S. government releases first batch of UFO and extraterrestrial documents
May 31 drops to 0%14%
The Pentagon launched the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) and released 161 previously classified files on UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, including Apollo 12 and 17 mission materials.
Pentagon releases first batch of declassified UFO files with no conclusive evidence
June 30 dips to 7%3%
The Pentagon released 162 previously classified files on UFOs and UAPs as directed by President Trump, providing transparency but no definitive proof of extraterrestrial life, causing a drop in market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Media coverage highlights lack of definitive alien evidence in released UFO files
December 31 dips to 16%2%
News outlets reported that while the released files contained many unexplained phenomena, they did not confirm extraterrestrial life, tempering market optimism and contributing to price fluctuations.
Pentagon launches PURSUE system to release military UFO data
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
The Department of Defense launched the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) to publicly release military data on UFO phenomena, marking the first batch of declassified documents. This release initially boosted optimism but did not confirm extraterrestrial life, leading to mixed market reactions.
Trump administration releases declassified UAP files including Apollo mission materials
The Trump administration released declassified files featuring Apollo 12 and Apollo 17 photos and transcripts as part of transparency efforts, but without confirming alien existence, leading to stable but cautious market sentiment.
Pentagon releases initial batch of declassified files detailing UFOs
September 30 dips to 10%4%
The Pentagon released a large set of declassified files on UFOs, including military memos and reports dating back decades, as part of the Trump administration's transparency effort. Despite the release, no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life was confirmed, leading to mixed market reactions and a slight decline in the September 30 outcome price.
First batch of declassified UFO files released by Pentagon
December 31 dips to 18%1%
The Pentagon released the first tranche of declassified UFO and UAP files as part of the Trump administration's transparency initiative. The files contained unresolved cases but no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to mixed public reactions and modest market impact.
Trump orders release of previously classified UFO files by Defense Department
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
Former President Trump directed the Defense Department to release dozens of classified files on UFO sightings and unidentified aerial phenomena, aiming for unprecedented transparency. This major disclosure raised market optimism about potential confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a price spike for the December 31 outcome.
Pentagon launches PURSUE and releases first batch of UFO files
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Department of War launched the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) and released the first batch of declassified UFO files, increasing public interest but providing no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life.
Pentagon announces rolling release of additional UFO documents
Following the February dump, the Pentagon confirmed it would continue releasing UFO files on a rolling basis, emphasizing ongoing transparency. The announcement tempered earlier excitement, causing a modest decline in market prices as traders reassessed the likelihood of a definitive confirmation.
US Representative Tim Burchett discusses UAP encounters and government secrecy
December 31 dips to 16%2%
Rep. Tim Burchett, a member of the UAP Caucus, revealed details about military pilot encounters with UAPs and alleged government cover-ups, increasing public interest but also skepticism about full disclosure.
Rep. Burchett says UAP speed could turn humans into ketchup
December 31 drops to 14%6%
During a Joe Rogan podcast Burchett claimed UAPs travel at speeds that could “turn you into a ketchup package” and that pilots reporting them are punished. The dramatic comments reignited media coverage, causing the **December 31** price to slip from 20 % to 14 % over the next week as traders reassessed the credibility of the disclosures.
NASA admin says chances of finding extraterrestrials are high
December 31 jumps to 22%5%
NASA Administrator Isaacman told NBC’s Meet the Press that “the odds we will find something that suggests we are not alone are pretty high,” which nudged the “December 31” odds upward again in early May, temporarily reversing the earlier decline.
FBI Director Kash Patel confirms first batch of UFO files sent for public release
December 31 rises to 18%2%
FBI Director Kash Patel announced that the first tranche of secret UFO files had been delivered to the interagency committee for imminent public release, fueling market speculation about imminent disclosure.
FBI Director Kash Patel says first batch of UFO files handed to White House UAP committee
December 31 rises to 14%4%
Patel announced the first tranche of UAP files had been delivered to the inter‑agency committee and would be released soon. The news lifted the “December 31” probability to a 14 % peak (priceBefore = 10, priceAfter = 14).
FBI hands over classified UAP documents to Pentagon for public release
December 31 rises to 20%4%
FBI Director Kash Patel announced the agency had provided its first batch of classified UAP documents to the Pentagon-led committee organizing the release, signaling progress in the transparency initiative and supporting market interest.
Former President Obama clarifies no evidence of alien contact during his presidency
December 31 dips to 18%3%
Obama stated that while statistically life likely exists elsewhere, he saw no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency, tempering public expectations and impacting market sentiment negatively for near-term confirmation.
Former President Obama clarifies no evidence of alien life seen during his tenure
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Obama stated he had not seen evidence of alien life while in office, tempering public expectations and reinforcing official skepticism, which likely contributed to market declines in short-term outcomes.
US pastors warned to prepare congregations for upcoming UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 21%3%
Officials reportedly briefed US pastors about forthcoming UFO disclosure materials that could challenge Christian beliefs, including reports of non-human craft and unusual beings, fueling public speculation and market interest.
Trump hints at 'very interesting' UFO files to be released by Pentagon
December 31 rises to 21%2%
President Trump publicly hinted at upcoming releases of "very interesting" UFO files uncovered by his administration, increasing market speculation and prices for later confirmation dates.
President Trump hints at upcoming release of 'very interesting' UFO files
December 31 rises to 21%2%
Trump publicly stated that the Pentagon was preparing to release significant UFO files uncovered by his administration, generating buzz and speculation but no definitive confirmation of alien existence, sustaining market interest.
President Trump hints at 'very interesting' UFO files to be released
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
Trump's public statements about upcoming releases of intriguing UFO files uncovered by his administration generated buzz and a temporary price increase, reflecting renewed market optimism about potential alien confirmation.
Trump hints at upcoming release of 'very interesting' UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%2%
President Trump publicly hinted at the Pentagon preparing to release new UFO files uncovered by his administration, generating buzz and skepticism, which temporarily increased market prices.
President Trump announces upcoming release of 'very interesting' UFO files
December 31 rises to 20%4%
President Trump stated that the Pentagon was preparing to release significant UFO files uncovered by his administration, generating buzz and speculation but no definitive confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a temporary market uptick.
President Trump hints at upcoming 'very interesting' UFO files release
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
Trump's public statements about imminent release of 'very interesting' UFO files raised market optimism and speculation about potential alien confirmation, causing a temporary price increase.
Avi Loeb presents fresh extraterrestrial signal analysis on TV
June 30 rises to 8%3%
Astrophysicist Avi Loeb presented new analysis of alleged extraterrestrial signals at a televised talk, keeping public curiosity high. The event coincided with a brief rise in the June 30 outcome from 5 % to 8 % before the price fell again.
Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and prisoner swap
President Trump announced a 3-day ceasefire and prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine, marking a significant diplomatic development. This event was unrelated to alien confirmation and did not affect the market.
NASA chief says upcoming missions will probe for extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 18%2%
NASA administrator Isaacman announced that upcoming missions would include objectives related to the search for extraterrestrial life, adding scientific credibility to the disclosure narrative and nudging the "December 31" price upward by 2 points on 1 May.
Pentagon’s anti‑drone laser use triggers FAA airspace shutdown over El Paso
The Pentagon allowed Customs and Border Protection to fire an anti‑drone laser near Fort Bliss without FAA coordination, prompting the FAA to close El Paso airspace for several hours. The incident underscored heightened military activity and raised doubts about imminent UFO disclosures, pushing prices down to single‑digit levels for all contracts.
Trump hints big revelations in upcoming UFO file releases
December 31 rises to 21%2%
During a White House event with the Artemis II crew, President Trump told reporters that the upcoming UFO releases would contain “a lot of things,” reviving market optimism and lifting the “December 31” price to a high of 21 % on 2026‑04‑24 before it began to ebb.
Trump says upcoming UFO releases will contain “a lot of things”
December 31 rises to 18%2%
At a White House event with the Artemis II crew, Trump promised that “a lot of things” would be in the upcoming UFO file releases, keeping the market’s optimism high for a year‑end confirmation and stabilising the “December 31” price around 18 %.
President Trump says UFO files will contain 'a lot of things'
December 31 rises to 19%3%
At a White House event, Trump stated that upcoming UFO file releases would include significant information, maintaining market interest and causing a temporary price increase.
Trump promises administration will release 'a lot of things' on UFOs soon
President Trump reiterated at a White House event that his administration would release many documents about UFOs in the near future, maintaining market interest and supporting the December 31 outcome price.
President Trump promises upcoming release of 'a lot of things' about UFOs
At a White House event, President Trump stated that his administration would soon release significant information about UFOs, sustaining market interest and optimism about potential alien confirmation.
President Trump says administration will release 'a lot of things' on UFOs
December 31 rises to 19%1%
At a White House event, Trump announced that the administration would soon release many documents related to UFOs, maintaining public interest but without confirming alien existence, causing a moderate market price increase.
President Trump promises 'a lot of things' in upcoming UFO file releases
December 31 dips to 19%2%
Trump stated that forthcoming UFO file releases would contain significant information, maintaining market interest but without providing definitive confirmation of aliens.
Trump hints at second wave of UFO files
June 30 dips to 2%3%
President Trump told reporters that more “very interesting” UFO files would be released “very soon.” The teaser raised hopes but, after the May 8 release failed to deliver confirmation, the June‑30 odds slid further to 2%.
President Trump hints at imminent release of 'very interesting' UFO files
December 31 rises to 19%1%
President Trump announced that the Pentagon was preparing to release new UFO files uncovered by his administration, generating buzz and raising market hopes for alien confirmation. This announcement caused a temporary price increase in the December 31 outcome.
Defense secretary says upcoming UFO files will contain “a lot of things”
June 30 rises to 3%1%
At a White House event with NASA’s Artemis‑II crew, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the upcoming file releases would contain “a lot of things,” stoking expectations that a near‑term confirmation could arrive before June 30. The market responded with a modest uptick for the June‑30 outcome (from 2 % to 3 %).
President Trump announces upcoming release of 'a lot of things' in UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%2%
At a White House event, Trump stated that forthcoming UFO file releases would contain significant information, temporarily boosting market optimism for eventual confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
President Trump announces imminent release of 'very interesting' UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
At a Turning Point USA event, Trump stated that the Pentagon had found many interesting documents and that the first releases of UFO files would begin very soon. This announcement raised market optimism for disclosure, reflected in price increases for longer-term outcomes.
Trump says administration will release “a lot of things” on UFOs
December 31 rises to 19%2%
During a White House event with the Artemis II crew, Trump reiterated that the administration would soon publish “a lot of things” on UFOs, renewing public attention and causing a modest rise in the “December 31” probability before a subsequent decline as the promised release was delayed.
Trump promises 'a lot of things' in upcoming UFO file releases
At a White House event, Trump said the forthcoming UFO files would contain 'a lot of things,' maintaining market interest and supporting prices around 16% for the December 31 outcome, though no definitive confirmation was given.
Trump promises upcoming release of 'a lot of things' about UFOs
December 31 rises to 22%3%
President Trump, speaking at a White House event with NASA's Artemis II crew, said his administration would release a significant amount of information about unidentified flying objects soon, sustaining market interest in potential disclosures.
Trump promises imminent release of UFO files amid national security concerns
December 31 dips to 18%2%
Trump stated that the first releases of government files on alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs would begin very soon, building public anticipation but without revealing any definitive evidence, which briefly supported market prices before declines.
President Trump promises upcoming UFO file releases with 'a lot of things'
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
At a White House event, President Trump stated that upcoming UFO file releases would contain significant information, which briefly boosted market optimism for the December 31 outcome, contributing to price peaks in April and May.
GOP Rep. Luna introduces bill for full UAP record disclosure
September 30 drops to 7%5%
Republican lawmakers, led by Rep. Luna, introduced a resolution demanding full public release of all UAP records by the end of 2026. The legislative push added pressure but did not produce new data, contributing to a gradual decline of the September 30 odds from 12 % to 7 % by early June.
U.S. Senate committee holds hearing on UFO disclosure policy
May 31 drops to 1%5%
A bipartisan Senate hearing examined the government’s UFO disclosure strategy, suggesting no immediate confirmation was planned. The discussion contributed to a decline in the May 31 odds from 6% to 1% as traders reassessed the timeline.
Market reacts to ongoing UFO file releases and official clarifications
September 30 rises to 16%2%
Following the initial Pentagon releases, market prices for September 30 outcome peaked then began declining as no definitive confirmation emerged, reflecting skepticism about near-term official alien confirmation.
Trump cancels envoy mission to Pakistan; Iran offers 'much better' proposal
May 31 dips to 13%3%
Trump canceled the mission of envoys to Islamabad after Iran's foreign minister's brief return, and Iran reportedly sent a 'much better' proposal, contributing to market uncertainty.
White House registers aliens.gov domain fueling speculation on alien disclosure
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
The registration of the federal domain aliens.gov by the Trump administration heightened speculation about imminent alien confirmation, contributing to a peak in market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Pentagon begins releasing new files on UFOs, encouraging public interpretation
December 31 jumps to 22%5%
The Pentagon started releasing a trove of previously classified UFO files, including videos and testimonies, aiming for transparency and allowing the public to draw their own conclusions. This release increased market optimism for the December 31 outcome, as it was the most direct government action related to extraterrestrial phenomena during the window.
NASA Administrator supports missions partly motivated by possible extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Jared Isaacman, NASA Administrator, stated that space missions are planned at least partly due to the possible existence of extraterrestrial life, adding credibility to transparency efforts and influencing market optimism for longer-term outcomes.
Partial federal government shutdown stalls Pentagon funding
June 30 dips to 6%2%
A lapse in appropriations forced many Pentagon operations to pause, reducing confidence that any official alien‑confirmation statement could be issued before year‑end. Prices for all outcomes fell, with the June‑30 contract dropping from 8% to 6% and the May‑31 contract from 4% to 2%.
NASA updates 2026 mission plans emphasizing search for extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 22%4%
NASA administrator Jared Isaacman publicly stated that the search for extraterrestrial life is central to NASA’s mission and that the odds of finding evidence are high, lending scientific weight to the discussion but not confirming alien existence, which caused moderate market impact.
Pentagon misses deadline to release 46 UAP videos demanded by Congress
June 30 dips to 7%3%
The Pentagon failed to meet the April 14 deadline to release specific UAP videos requested by Congress, tempering market enthusiasm and causing a price decline for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Pentagon declassifies initial batch of UFO files under Trump directive
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon released a first tranche of declassified UFO files including Apollo mission photos and transcripts, signaling increased transparency but without confirming extraterrestrial life, causing a temporary price peak due to renewed speculation.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with photos and videos
December 31 rises to 22%4%
The Pentagon released dozens of declassified UFO files including videos and photos, fueling public interest but official statements reiterated no evidence of extraterrestrial life, causing a temporary price increase followed by decline.
Renewed Pentagon UFO file releases and congressional pressure for transparency
Additional UFO files were released by the Pentagon, and congressional Republicans pressed for further transparency, including the release of whistleblower videos. Despite increased information, no definitive government confirmation of extraterrestrial life was made, causing market prices to stabilize and then decline for earlier resolution dates.
Pentagon uploads first PURSUE UAP file batch
December 31 rises to 22%4%
The Department of War announced that the All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) had uploaded the first batch of declassified UAP files to the new PURSUE website. Traders saw the concrete declassification as a step toward possible confirmation, pushing the December‑31 odds up again in late April.
Former President Trump directs Pentagon to review and release UFO files
December 31 rises to 22%4%
Trump announced in February and reiterated in April that he had directed the Defense Secretary and other officials to begin reviewing and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, raising public anticipation for disclosures but without confirming alien existence.
Trump tweets that a formal alien confirmation is imminent
June 30 rises to 14%4%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that a major announcement confirming extraterrestrial life would be made within weeks, spurring a brief rally in the market and raising the June 30 odds from 10% to 14% before they fell again as the statement proved vague.
Pentagon announces upcoming release of 46 UAP videos
December 31 rises to 19%2%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announced that the Pentagon would release 46 videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, fueling speculation about government transparency on UFOs. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting renewed hopes for official confirmation.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with no confirmation of alien life
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, but explicitly did not confirm extraterrestrial life. This release sparked public curiosity and a brief increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, but the lack of definitive confirmation led to a subsequent decline.
Pentagon begins releasing new files on UFOs and says the public can draw its own conclusions
December 31 rises to 23%4%
The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files, which President Trump had previously teased as a major disclosure. However, the files did not provide definitive proof of alien life, causing the market to adjust downward as the 'major dump' failed to meet expectations for confirmation.
Trump says UFO review uncovered 'interesting' documents
December 31 rises to 22%4%
President Trump stated that his administration's review of UFO-related material uncovered many interesting documents and that the first releases would begin soon, reinforcing market optimism and causing a price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Trump Announces Imminent Release of UFO Files Following Pentagon Review
December 31 rises to 22%4%
President Donald Trump announced at a Turning Point USA event in Phoenix that the Pentagon's review of classified UFO files had uncovered 'many very interesting documents' and that the first batch would be released 'very, very soon.' This announcement temporarily sustained speculative interest in the market.
Trump announces 'interesting' UFO documents to be released soon
December 31 rises to 22%4%
Trump revealed that his administration's review uncovered many interesting UFO-related documents and that the first releases would begin very soon, causing a market price peak due to anticipation of new information.
President Trump hints at upcoming UFO file releases with 'interesting' documents
December 31 rises to 21%4%
At a public event, Trump stated that the government found many interesting UFO documents and that releases would begin soon, briefly boosting market confidence in near-term confirmation possibilities.
President Trump announces imminent release of UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
President Trump stated that interesting documents related to UFOs had been found and that the first releases would begin very soon, raising public anticipation for potential disclosure. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market prices for confirmation by December 31 and September 30.
Defense Secretary Hegseth says interesting UFO documents will be released soon
December 31 rises to 22%4%
Defense Secretary Hegseth told supporters that the review had uncovered "many very interesting documents" and that releases would start soon. The comment reinforced the expectation of imminent disclosure, producing a 4‑point rise in the "December 31" price between 15 Apr and 19 Apr.
Trump announces discovery of 'interesting' UFO documents ahead of release
December 31 rises to 20%2%
Trump's public remarks about uncovering 'interesting' documents and imminent releases heightened market anticipation, causing price increases for the December 31 outcome.
Congressman Tim Burchett discusses UFO disclosures and conversations with President Trump
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
Rep. Tim Burchett, a member of the UAP Caucus, revealed in interviews that he had spoken with President Trump about UFO disclosures and shared details about military pilot encounters with UAPs, increasing public and market interest in potential disclosures.
Trump announces Pentagon UFO document releases coming soon
December 31 rises to 22%4%
President Trump announced at a Turning Point USA event that interesting documents related to UFOs had been found and that releases would begin very soon, which briefly boosted market confidence in near-term confirmation.
Rep. Tim Burchett claims UAPs fly fast enough to turn people into ketchup on Rogan show
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Rep. Tim Burchett appeared on a high‑profile podcast, describing “ketchup‑speed” UAPs and claiming pilots were silenced. Media coverage raised public interest and pushed the market up to 10 % for the “December 31” outcome (priceBefore = 8, priceAfter = 10).
President Trump announces upcoming release of UFO documents
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
President Trump stated at a Turning Point USA event that many interesting documents related to UFOs had been found and that releases would begin very soon, raising market optimism about potential confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
President Trump says UFO file review found 'interesting' documents, release imminent
December 31 rises to 17%3%
President Trump stated that the review of UFO files uncovered many interesting documents and that the first releases would begin very soon. This statement maintained market optimism and supported the price for the December 31 outcome around 14-17%.
President Trump announces imminent release of Pentagon UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%2%
President Trump stated that the first releases of Pentagon UFO study documents would come out "very, very soon," raising market optimism about potential confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
Scientists report no confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life despite extensive searches
May 31 drops to 1%5%
Scientific reports reiterated the absence of confirmed extraterrestrial life despite advanced searches and thousands of exoplanet discoveries, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to price declines for near-term outcomes like May 31 from 6% to 1%.
Senate committee holds hearing on UFO disclosures
September 30 rises to 14%2%
Congress convened a hearing to discuss the newly released UFO material, briefly reviving optimism and nudging the September‑30 outcome up to 14% before it fell again later in the month.
Congress demands Pentagon deliver 46 classified UAP videos by April 14 deadline
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
Representative Anna Paulina Luna and other congressional members demanded the Pentagon hand over 46 classified UAP video files by April 14, 2026, pressuring the Department of War and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to comply with transparency efforts. This congressional pressure increased market interest in near-term disclosure.
Pentagon misses deadline to release 46 requested UFO videos
May 31 drops to 0%6%
The Pentagon failed to meet the April 14 deadline set by Rep. Luna to deliver 46 classified UAP video files, raising concerns about transparency and fueling criticism from lawmakers and the public. This failure contributed to declines in market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Pentagon misses congressional deadline to release 46 requested UAP videos
June 30 drops to 3%7%
Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna demanded the Pentagon release 46 specific classified UAP videos by April 14, 2026, citing national security concerns. The Pentagon failed to meet this deadline, leading to accusations of obstruction and fueling public suspicion about government transparency, which negatively affected market confidence in near-term confirmation.
Pentagon misses congressional deadline to release 46 classified UFO videos
May 31 drops to 1%5%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna demanded the Pentagon release 46 specific classified UAP videos by April 14, 2026, but the Pentagon failed to meet this deadline, causing criticism and skepticism about government transparency, which led to declines in near-term market prices.
White House registers domain aliens.gov amid UFO disclosure efforts
December 31 rises to 17%3%
The White House registered the domain aliens.gov, signaling a commitment to UFO disclosure and fueling speculation among believers and the market. This symbolic move contributed to a price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Trump administration's growing focus on UFO disclosure raises public expectations
December 31 rises to 21%3%
Reports highlighted President Trump's and Vice President Vance's apparent obsession with UFOs and extraterrestrials, boosting public speculation that official confirmation might be forthcoming. This increased optimism likely contributed to a market price rise in mid-April.
Experts say US closer than ever to alien disclosure amid Trump administration focus
December 31 rises to 21%2%
UFO enthusiasts and experts expressed optimism about potential alien disclosure due to the Trump administration's commitment, briefly boosting market confidence for year-end confirmation.
Trump administration's UFO disclosure efforts buoy alien believers
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Reports highlighted the Trump administration's commitment to UFO disclosure, raising hopes among believers but without any official confirmation of alien existence. This contributed to market price fluctuations but did not lead to a sustained increase in confidence.
Experts say Trump administration's UFO focus brings disclosure closer
December 31 rises to 17%3%
UFO enthusiasts and experts expressed optimism that the Trump administration's commitment to UFO disclosure in 2026 could lead to confirmation of extraterrestrial life, boosting market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Experts say US is closer than ever to UFO disclosure under Trump administration
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
UFO enthusiasts and experts expressed optimism that President Trump and the administration's focus on UFO disclosure could soon lead to official confirmation, temporarily boosting market prices for longer-term outcomes.
Experts say US 'never been closer' to confirming alien existence amid Trump interest
December 31 rises to 21%3%
UFO enthusiasts and experts expressed optimism about potential confirmation due to the Trump administration's focus on UFO disclosure, sustaining market interest especially for the December 31 outcome.
President Trump and allies intensify UFO disclosure efforts
December 31 rises to 20%2%
President Trump and supporters like JD Vance publicly expressed strong interest in UFO disclosure, raising hopes among believers and briefly increasing market prices, though no definitive confirmation was made.
Experts say US is 'never been closer' to confirming alien evidence under Trump administration
UFO enthusiasts and experts expressed optimism that the Trump administration's focus on UFO disclosure and interest in extraterrestrials brought the US closer than ever to confirming alien existence, supporting elevated market prices for the December 31 outcome.
President Trump promises significant upcoming UFO file releases at White House event
December 31 rises to 21%4%
At a White House event with the Artemis II crew, Trump stated forthcoming UFO file releases would contain 'a lot of things,' temporarily boosting market optimism and lifting the December 31 outcome price to a high point.
Trump and Vance's administration commitment to UFO disclosure fuels optimism
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
The administration's public commitment to UFO disclosure, including statements by Vice President Vance and President Trump, increased market optimism that official confirmation of aliens might occur, especially by year-end.
Senate hearing underscores AARO’s lack of alien evidence
September 30 drops to 9%5%
A Senate hearing highlighted AARO’s 2024 report that found no evidence of alien technology. Media coverage of the report’s negative findings contributed to the gradual decline of all longer‑term outcomes, especially the September‑30 odds falling from 14% to 9% by the end of May.
President Trump and administration officials express commitment to UFO disclosure
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
President Trump and key administration figures publicly committed to UFO disclosure, with Trump promising file releases and surrounded by officials with strong UFO interests, boosting market optimism temporarily.
President Trump commits to UFO disclosure in 2026, fueling speculation
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
Trump publicly committed to UFO disclosure, creating a 'ripe' environment for potential announcements, which temporarily boosted market interest despite no definitive confirmation.
UFO watchers buoyed by Trump and Vance’s alien ‘obsession’
December 31 rises to 21%4%
Reports highlighted the Trump administration's commitment to UFO disclosure and the registration of the domain aliens.gov, fueling speculation and optimism among UFO enthusiasts. This increased market interest and prices for the December 31 outcome.
Trump and allies express strong interest in UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 19%2%
Statements from President Trump and supporters like JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. expressing belief in extraterrestrial life buoyed market optimism, especially for the December 31 outcome, though no official confirmation was made.
Trump administration's UFO interest fuels speculation of imminent alien disclosure
December 31 jumps to 22%8%
The Trump administration's focus on UFO disclosure, including directives to release files and the registration of aliens.gov, raised hopes among UFO enthusiasts that confirmation of extraterrestrial life could be near, causing a market price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Vice‑president vows complete transparency on UFO disclosures
September 30 rises to 14%1%
Vice‑president Kamala Vance (the Vice‑president in this scenario) publicly reiterated the administration’s commitment to full transparency on UAPs, prompting a modest rise in the “September 30” probability to 14 % (priceBefore = 13, priceAfter = 14).
Trump administration commits to UFO disclosure in 2026, boosting alien confirmation hopes
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
The Trump administration's renewed focus on UFO disclosure and extraterrestrial life in 2026 buoyed market optimism, with experts stating the US was closer than ever to confirming alien existence, causing a price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Pentagon releases new UFO files detailing sightings but no confirmation of alien life
The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking public interest but stopping short of confirming extraterrestrial life. This transparency effort by the Trump administration increased public curiosity but did not provide definitive proof, leading to a modest market reaction with no significant price increase.
Trump administration's UFO disclosure commitment boosts optimism
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
Trump and his administration's continued focus on UFO disclosure, including statements by allies and registration of domains, increased market confidence in a possible confirmation by year-end, lifting prices for December 31.
U.S. and Iran agree to indefinite ceasefire
September 30 dips to 13%1%
A historic ceasefire agreement was reached on April 7, temporarily halting the Iran war after two months of conflict, providing some stability to the global economy.
Congressman Tim Burchett claims government confirms alien contact
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Burchett stated multiple government and military sources privately confirmed extraterrestrial visitors and human contact, fueling public speculation though lacking official confirmation, causing a temporary market price increase.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman highlights alien life search as core to space missions
December 31 rises to 16%2%
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman publicly stated that the search for extraterrestrial life is central to NASA's missions, reinforcing scientific credibility and sustaining market interest in potential future confirmation.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman says odds of finding alien life are high
December 31 dips to 14%4%
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman publicly stated that the search for extraterrestrial life is central to NASA’s mission and that the odds of finding evidence are high, lending scientific credibility to the discussion but not confirming alien existence, causing moderate market impact.
NASA chief says chance of alien life influences agency missions but no evidence found
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman acknowledged the high odds of alien life in the universe but confirmed no evidence of visits or contact, maintaining scientific interest without affecting market confirmation probabilities.
Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna demands 46 classified UAP videos from Pentagon
May 31 dips to 3%3%
Representative Luna sent a formal letter demanding the Pentagon deliver 46 specific classified UAP video files by April 14, 2026, increasing congressional pressure on the Defense Department for transparency. This heightened political scrutiny influenced market prices, especially for near-term outcomes.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna demands Pentagon release 46 classified UFO videos by April 14
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Representative Anna Paulina Luna sent a formal letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth demanding the release of 46 specific classified UAP video files by April 14, increasing congressional pressure on the Defense Department for transparency. This heightened political scrutiny influenced market prices, especially for near-term outcomes.
House Task Force Demands Pentagon Hand Over 46 Classified UAP Video Files
Representative Anna Paulina Luna sent a formal demand to the Secretary of War requesting 46 specific military UAP videos by April 14, increasing near-term pressure and keeping market interest high.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial records
December 31 rises to 18%4%
President Trump directed the Secretary of War and other agencies to identify and release government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, initiating a process of transparency but without confirming alien existence. This announcement sparked initial market interest, causing a price increase for later resolution dates.
US registers aliens.gov domain amid UFO disclosure efforts
December 31 rises to 21%4%
The US government registered the domain aliens.gov as part of the administration's efforts to centralize and prepare for public release of declassified UFO and extraterrestrial files, fueling speculation and market interest in potential disclosure.
US government registers alien.gov domain amid UFO file release preparations
The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency registered the alien.gov and aliens.gov domains as part of preparations for the public release of declassified UFO and extraterrestrial files, signaling government commitment to transparency and fueling market interest.
US government begins process to release alien and UFO files as directed by President Trump
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Following Trump's February directive, government agencies officially started the process of identifying and releasing files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs. This action sustained market interest and supported a moderate price increase near the end of the analysis window.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 16%2%
President Trump directed US federal agencies to identify and release government files related to alien life, UAPs, and UFOs, sparking increased market interest and a price rise for longer-term confirmation outcomes.
US registers aliens.gov as Trump pushes UFO file release
December 31 rises to 17%1%
The US government registered a dedicated website for alien-related information as part of President Trump's directive to identify and release files on extraterrestrial life, maintaining market interest in possible disclosures.
US government registers aliens.gov domain amid UFO file release preparations
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Following the February directive, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency registered the aliens.gov domain, signaling ongoing government efforts to increase transparency on extraterrestrial matters, which sustained market interest.
Homeland Security Registers Alien.gov and Aliens.gov Domains, Fueling Disclosure Speculation
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
The registration of Alien.gov and Aliens.gov by CISA, combined with a teasing 'Stay tuned!' statement from the White House, triggered a late-window price rebound.
US government registers Alien.gov domain amid UFO file release speculation
December 31 rises to 16%2%
The creation of official government website domains Alien.gov and Aliens.gov fueled speculation about imminent government disclosures on extraterrestrial life, sustaining market interest and price levels.
White House registers alien.gov and aliens.gov domains
December 31 rises to 14%2%
The registration of the domains alien.gov and aliens.gov was reported, fueling speculation about a dedicated disclosure portal. While the news was brief, it coincided with a modest uptick in the December‑31 odds in early March.
Skepticism remains despite Trump’s UFO file release plans
December 31 rises to 17%1%
By March 19, 2026, officials and experts expressed cautious skepticism about the likelihood of the government confirming alien existence despite the file release plans. This contributed to minor price fluctuations but maintained the market around 16-17%.
Pentagon reiterates no confirmed evidence of alien technology in UFO files
December 31 dips to 16%3%
Despite the release of numerous UFO files, Pentagon officials and experts cautioned that the files do not confirm the existence of alien technology. This tempered market enthusiasm, leading to a slight price correction.
Rep. Eric Burlison discusses UFO file disclosures on Capitol Hill
December 31 rises to 17%1%
Congressional attention on UFO disclosures increased as Rep. Eric Burlison spoke to reporters, reflecting legislative pressure for transparency which influenced market optimism about potential confirmation.
Congressman Eric Burlison discusses classified UAP site visits and evidence
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
Rep. Eric Burlison publicly discussed his classified visits to UAP-related sites and described viewing videos of unexplained phenomena, which added credibility to ongoing government investigations and increased public and market interest in potential disclosure.
White House registers new alien-related government domains
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
The Executive Office of the President registered the domains alien.gov and aliens.gov, signaling potential preparation for official information dissemination on extraterrestrial matters. This move sustained market interest though it did not confirm alien existence.
Trump administration releases first batch of declassified UFO files including Apollo mission transcripts
December 31 rises to 18%4%
The administration released previously unseen files and videos on UFOs as part of a transparency initiative, increasing public interest but without confirming alien existence, causing moderate market fluctuations.
DNI Tulsi Gabbard testifies on UAP transparency before Senate
December 31 rises to 20%2%
DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee, emphasizing the need for full transparency on UAPs. Media coverage highlighted the testimony as a sign that the administration might soon make a definitive statement, keeping the “December 31” price elevated.
Director of National Intelligence testifies on worldwide threats including UAPs
December 31 rises to 16%2%
Tulsi Gabbard testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee discussing worldwide threats, including unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAPs), which increased public and market attention on government transparency regarding UFOs, slightly boosting market prices.
US government registers official alien-related .gov domains
December 31 rises to 19%3%
The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency registered the domains aliens.gov and alien.gov, signaling official government preparation for public information release, which briefly increased market optimism about imminent disclosure.
White House registers official “aliens.gov” domain as part of UFO disclosure push
December 31 rises to 12%1%
The White House registered the new domain “aliens.gov”, confirming the administration’s formal infrastructure for the disclosure effort. The move kept market interest high through March, stabilising the December‑31 odds around 11‑12 %.
Rep. Tim Burchett hints at startling UFO disclosures in Joe Rogan podcast
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
Rep. Tim Burchett, a member of the UAP Caucus, described extraordinary UAP capabilities and pilot encounters, suggesting serious government knowledge. His statements raised public and market interest in imminent disclosures.
White House Quietly Registers Aliens.gov Domain, Sparking Fresh Disclosure Speculation
December 31 rises to 20%4%
The Executive Office of the President registered the domains alien.gov and aliens.gov, triggering a surge in prediction market odds and widespread speculation about an imminent announcement.
Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats
May 31 dips to 2%2%
Same event, influencing the May‑31 contract which slipped from 4% to 2% as market sentiment soured further.
Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats
June 30 dips to 7%1%
Same event, affecting the June‑30 contract which fell from 8% to 7% in the following days.
Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats
September 30 dips to 9%3%
In response to Trump’s rhetoric about a possible “friendly takeover” of Cuba, the Cuban state presented a rifle to protest singer Silvio Rodríguez. The gesture underscored heightened tensions and reinforced market belief that the U.S. would not make a conciliatory statement on extraterrestrials, pushing all later‑date contracts lower.
White House registers aliens.gov domain amid UFO disclosure speculation
December 31 rises to 17%1%
The Executive Office of the President registered the aliens.gov domain, fueling speculation about an upcoming official disclosure platform and sustaining market interest in potential alien confirmation.
Pentagon announces upcoming release of additional UFO videos
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Following pressure from some Republican lawmakers, the Pentagon announced plans to release 46 UFO videos identified by whistleblowers, fueling speculation but not providing official confirmation of alien life. This announcement caused a modest rise in market prices for longer-term outcomes.
White House Registers Alien.gov and Aliens.gov Domains
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
The Executive Office of the President registered two new federal domains, sparking intense speculation and driving prediction market odds back up to 16%-19% as traders anticipated a formal disclosure platform.
Cuban officials present AKM rifles to singer Silvio Rodríguez after anti‑U.S. remarks
December 31 rises to 16%3%
Cuba’s public gifting of military rifles to a prominent artist, following his threats against the United States, heightened geopolitical tension and revived speculation about secret U.S.‑Cuban encounters with unidentified technology, nudging the market upward.
White House registers alien-related .gov domains amid disclosure efforts
December 31 dips to 16%1%
The Executive Office of the President registered the domains aliens.gov and alien.gov, signaling ongoing government preparations related to alien and UFO information release. This move sustained market interest despite no new disclosures.
“Aliens.gov” domain registered by White House
December 31 rises to 17%4%
A newly registered government domain “aliens.gov” was detected, fueling speculation about an official UFO portal. The rumor caused a short‑term spike in the December‑31 odds (from 13% to 17% on March 22).
US Government Registers 'aliens.gov' Domain, Sparking Online Speculation
December 31 rises to 17%3%
The White House Office registered the 'aliens.gov' domain through CISA, fueling intense speculation on prediction markets and social media.
DNI Gabbard testifies on UAP threat and upcoming disclosures
December 31 rises to 21%3%
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee, saying the UAP threat was being taken seriously and that new declassified material would be released soon. The testimony reinforced market optimism, contributing to a second peak of 21% for the December‑31 outcome on April 20.
Director of National Intelligence Gabbard testifies on global threats
DNI Tulsi Gabbard's Senate testimony on March 18, 2026, was part of broader congressional interest in UFO disclosures, contributing to the political momentum for transparency initiatives.
U.S. government registers Alien.gov and Aliens.gov domains
December 31 rises to 17%1%
The Executive Office of the President registered the federal website domains Alien.gov and Aliens.gov, fueling speculation about an upcoming official platform for alien and UFO information. This development sustained market interest in potential disclosures before the end of 2026.
U.S. government registers aliens.gov and alien.gov domains
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency registered the domains aliens.gov and alien.gov, signaling administrative preparation for potential public information releases related to extraterrestrial life. This move heightened speculation and briefly boosted market prices.
White House Registers 'alien.gov' and 'aliens.gov' Domains
December 31 rises to 17%1%
The registration of alien-related government domains by the Executive Office of the President sparked fresh online speculation and stabilized the prediction market around 17%.
CISA Registers Extraterrestrial Government Domains to Prepare for File Releases
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency registered two extraterrestrial-related domains, signaling concrete administrative steps toward releasing the files.
US Government Registers Alien.gov and Aliens.gov Domains
December 31 rises to 17%3%
The federal government registered two new domains, alien.gov and aliens.gov, fueling speculation and driving the market back up to 17% Yes as traders anticipated the official release of files.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security registers Aliens.gov domain
December 31 rises to 19%3%
The registration of Aliens.gov and Alien.gov domains by DHS fueled speculation about imminent official disclosure, supporting sustained market interest and a price peak around 19% for December 31.
Government registers aliens.gov domain amidst UFO speculation
September 30 rises to 15%1%
The registration of the federal domain aliens.gov was reported on March 17, feeding speculation that a dedicated government portal was forthcoming. The news nudged the market upward modestly (from 14 % to 15 % on the “September 30” line) before the later releases reversed the trend.
AARO holds invite‑only workshop to standardize UAP data collection
September 30 drops to 9%5%
AARO announced a private workshop with civilian researchers to improve UAP data standards. While not a disclosure, the announcement signaled ongoing work but no new evidence, contributing to a gradual softening of the “September 30” odds to 9 % by late April.
Pentagon's AARO held invite-only workshop to standardize UAP research data
December 31 rises to 16%2%
Details emerged that the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) sponsored a private workshop with researchers to standardize processes for studying UAP data, highlighting ongoing institutional efforts.
Pentagon releases comprehensive UFO report finding no evidence of extraterrestrial life
December 31 drops to 14%6%
The Pentagon published a detailed report analyzing decades of UFO sightings and investigations, concluding no evidence supports extraterrestrial origins or recovered alien technology. This report tempered market enthusiasm, causing some price volatility.
Pentagon releases comprehensive UFO report finding no evidence of alien technology
June 30 dips to 7%3%
The Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office published a 63-page report reviewing decades of UFO sightings, concluding no evidence of extraterrestrial technology was found, which likely reduced market confidence in near-term confirmations.
Trump administration delays release of promised UFO files amid complexity
December 31 dips to 16%4%
Despite Trump's directive, no immediate release of files occurred, highlighting the complexity of disclosure and tempering market enthusiasm for near-term confirmation.
Analysis suggests released files unlikely to confirm alien existence
December 31 drops to 14%6%
On March 7, 2026, analysis by experts indicated that the forthcoming government files would likely contain unexplained sightings but no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life. This tempered market enthusiasm, contributing to a price decline from 20% to around 14% by March 11.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and alien files
In February 2026, President Trump directed federal agencies to identify and release records related to UFOs and extraterrestrials, initiating the official disclosure process that shaped market expectations throughout the analysis window.
Secretary of War and Chairman of Joint Chiefs hold briefing amid Middle East conflict
On March 2, 2026, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine held a press briefing. While unrelated directly to alien confirmation, their public presence and statements as key officials kept attention on government transparency and disclosures, indirectly supporting market interest.
White House registers aliens.gov domain, fueling disclosure speculation
December 31 dips to 18%1%
The registration of aliens.gov by the Executive Office was seen as a bureaucratic preparation for possible information releases, increasing market interest and speculation about imminent confirmation of alien existence.
White House says no definitive evidence of extraterrestrials has been found
May 31 dips to 2%2%
Same statement also impacted the May‑31 outcome, pulling its price down to 2% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a near‑term confirmation.
White House says no definitive evidence of extraterrestrials has been found
June 30 drops to 2%5%
A senior administration official publicly stated that, despite the recent releases, the government has not confirmed any alien technology, causing the market to retreat and the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes to fall to 2%.
Trump reiterates commitment to declassify alien files following 2023 UFO bill
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
Following the 2023 UFO bill signed by President Biden, Trump publicly reaffirmed his intention to release government records on alien and UFO phenomena, sustaining market optimism about potential confirmation.
Trump reiterates commitment to release alien and UFO files amid ongoing bureaucratic delays
December 31 dips to 14%4%
President Trump reaffirmed his commitment to releasing government records on aliens and UFOs, but reports indicated that bureaucratic complexities might delay or heavily redact disclosures, tempering market enthusiasm temporarily.
U.S. and Israel launch attacks on Iran; Strait of Hormuz shut down
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28, disrupting global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a major economic shock and triggering the start of the Iran war.
Congress passes law mandating UFO file releases; Biden signs into law
December 31 rises to 8%1%
Congress passed and President Biden signed legislation requiring the National Archives to collect and release UFO-related documents, reinforcing the transparency push and influencing market expectations.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
President Trump directed agencies to identify and release government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, sparking a surge in market prices due to increased expectations of disclosure.
President Trump directs federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump announced a directive for the Secretary of War and other agencies to identify and release government files related to alien life, UAPs, and UFOs, sparking increased market interest and a rise in the December 31 outcome price from 9% to 14%.
Scientific discussion on extraterrestrial search streamed live
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
A prominent scientific event discussing findings from the search for extraterrestrials increased public and market interest, supporting elevated prices for longer-term outcomes.
Obama states aliens are real but has not seen them
December 31 jumps to 18%9%
Former President Obama's statement that aliens are real but he hasn't seen them created a wave of speculation about potential government disclosure, amplifying interest in the UFO file release process.
Harvard's Avi Loeb discusses scientific search for extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Avi Loeb, a prominent astrophysicist, streamed a discussion on his scientific search for extraterrestrials, raising public and market interest in potential alien confirmation. This event contributed to a modest price increase for the December 31 outcome.
FBI director says UFO files are on the brink of public release
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
In a televised interview on the *Hang Out with Sean Hannity* podcast, Director Patel confirmed that the first tranche of UAP documents had already been delivered to the inter‑agency committee and would be released soon. The hint of imminent public access lifted the **December 31** odds to a peak of 16 % on 20 Feb and sustained growth through March.
Avi Loeb to discuss scientific search for extraterrestrials in live stream
December 31 rises to 19%1%
Astrophysicist Avi Loeb announced a live-streamed discussion of his scientific search for extraterrestrials, highlighting ongoing scientific efforts separate from government disclosures. This event contributed to public and market interest in the possibility of extraterrestrial life, though it did not provide official confirmation.
Scientist Avi Loeb discusses search for extraterrestrials in live stream
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Avi Loeb, a prominent scientist, presented findings on the search for extraterrestrials, contributing to public discourse and market interest in official confirmation of alien life, supporting a temporary price increase.
Scientific discussion on extraterrestrial life by Harvard's Avi Loeb
December 31 rises to 14%4%
Avi Loeb, a prominent scientist, presented findings on the search for extraterrestrials in a live-streamed event, fueling public interest and speculation about possible confirmation. This scientific engagement contributed to market price fluctuations, particularly for the December 31 outcome.
Scientific expert Avi Loeb discusses search for extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 18%6%
Avi Loeb, a prominent scientist, publicly discussed his scientific search for extraterrestrials, increasing public and market attention to the possibility of alien life and government disclosure.
Avi Loeb discusses scientific search for extraterrestrials in live YouTube event
December 31 jumps to 17%7%
Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb, a prominent advocate for the search for extraterrestrial life, held a live-streamed discussion presenting findings from his scientific search. This event raised public and market interest in the possibility of alien life, contributing to a slight price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Trump’s order to release alien files discussed amid scientific skepticism
December 31 rises to 19%2%
While Trump’s directive to release alien files was underway, scientific experts emphasized no credible evidence of extraterrestrial visitation exists, tempering expectations despite political momentum.
Trump Orders Pentagon to Release UFO and Alien Life Files
December 31 rises to 10%3%
President Trump directed the Pentagon to identify and declassify government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, sparking trader interest in potential disclosure. This early action drove initial market price increases.
Pentagon Confirms Compliance and AARO Involvement in UAP File Consolidation
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon and the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) confirmed they are working in close coordination with the White House to consolidate and facilitate the release of UAP records.
Pentagon Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s controversial policies and media restrictions
December 31 dips to 16%1%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth imposed new media rules and policies at the Pentagon, leading to lawsuits and media pushback. While not directly related to alien confirmation, these actions influenced public perception of Pentagon transparency and may have indirectly affected market sentiment on UFO disclosures.
Pentagon confirms working on declassifying alien and UFO files following Trump directive
December 31 rises to 14%3%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the Pentagon is actively working on identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, indicating progress on Trump's February directive. This reinforced market confidence in eventual disclosure, contributing to price increases.
Pentagon confirms readiness to follow Trump’s executive order on alien files
December 31 rises to 18%1%
Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the military is prepared to comply with President Trump's directive to release government records about unidentified anomalous phenomena and aliens, reinforcing expectations of forthcoming disclosures and sustaining market interest.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Confirms Military Readiness for UFO Disclosure Executive Order
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the Pentagon is actively working to coordinate the expeditious release of UAP records in alignment with the president's directive.
Defense Secretary Hegseth says Pentagon ready to release alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 26%8%
Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon was ready to act on Trump’s order, reinforcing expectations of a near‑term release and causing the market’s “December 31” probability to peak at 26 % on 2026‑02‑20.
Pentagon Secretary Hegseth confirms active work on UFO file release
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth publicly confirmed that the Pentagon is actively working to implement President Trump's directive to release government files related to UAPs and extraterrestrial life, reinforcing the seriousness of the disclosure effort and sustaining market interest.
Defense Secretary Hegseth Confirms Pentagon Compliance with UAP Disclosure Order
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon was actively working to identify and release government files in full compliance with the president's directive.
Pentagon confirms working on identifying and releasing UFO files
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon was actively working on identifying and releasing files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, sustaining market interest though with some skepticism about the timing and content of disclosures.
Pentagon confirms work underway to release UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 20%2%
Following Trump's directive, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on February 23, 2026, that the Pentagon was actively working on identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life. This reassured the market that the release process was progressing, supporting the elevated price levels.
Pentagon confirms working on releasing UFO and alien files following Trump’s order
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the Pentagon is actively working on identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, following President Trump's directive. This reassured the market about progress on disclosure efforts, supporting elevated price levels.
Defense Secretary Hegseth confirms Pentagon working on alien file release
December 31 rises to 20%2%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the Pentagon is actively working on identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life following President Trump's directive, maintaining market optimism about potential disclosure.
Pentagon confirms work on declassifying UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon is actively working on releasing alien-related files following Trump's directive, sustaining market optimism about potential confirmation.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth updates on government work to release alien files
December 31 rises to 18%2%
Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon was actively working on identifying and releasing files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, sustaining market interest and supporting price levels.
Pentagon officials endorse Trump’s UAP transparency push
December 31 surges to 26%16%
Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth publicly supported the Trump administration’s plan to increase transparency on unidentified aerial phenomena, signaling institutional backing for the release of UFO files. This bolstered market confidence in forthcoming disclosures.
Pentagon confirms work on identifying and releasing UFO files following Trump directive
December 31 rises to 16%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the Pentagon was actively working on releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, reinforcing market expectations for upcoming disclosures.
Pentagon signals readiness to deliver on Trump’s UFO disclosure pledge
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated the Pentagon was poised to fulfill President Trump's pledge to release government records about UAPs and aliens, reinforcing expectations of forthcoming disclosures and sustaining market interest.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Confirms Pentagon is Working on UFO Disclosure
December 31 rises to 18%1%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the Pentagon is actively working to comply with President Trump's directive to identify and release government records on UAPs and extraterrestrial life.
Pentagon confirms working on declassifying alien and UFO files
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon is actively working on identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, reinforcing Trump's directive and sustaining market interest.
Trump Orders Federal Agencies to Release UFO Files on Alien Life
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump directed the Department of Defense and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, sparking widespread speculation and driving the market price to 14% by early February.
Former President Obama states aliens are 'real' but no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 26%3%
Obama's comments on a podcast that aliens are 'real' reignited public interest and speculation about disclosure, indirectly supporting market price increases for the December 31 outcome.
Trump directs Pentagon to release UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 jumps to 18%9%
Following pressure from Congress and after Obama's statement that aliens are real, Trump ordered federal agencies to identify and release government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrials, sparking initial market optimism.
Obama Says Aliens Are 'Real but I Haven't Seen Them'
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Former President Obama stated in a February interview that aliens are 'real but I haven't seen them,' sparking widespread speculation and market interest in official confirmation.
Obama Confirms Aliens Exist in Podcast Interview
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Former President Obama stated in a podcast that aliens are real, prompting widespread media coverage and reinforcing market expectations that government disclosure of alien existence was imminent.
Former President Obama confirms aliens are real but unseen
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
Obama stated that aliens are real though he has not seen them, fueling public and market speculation about imminent disclosure, contributing to a brief rally in the market.
President Trump directs US government to prepare release of alien and UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Trump announced he would direct federal agencies to identify and release government files related to aliens and UFOs, sparking a significant market price increase due to renewed hopes for disclosure.
President Trump directs US agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 22%12%
President Donald Trump announced he would direct federal agencies, including the Department of Defense, to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs. This directive sparked initial market interest and speculation about potential confirmation of alien existence.
President Trump directs Pentagon to release UFO and alien files
December 31 jumps to 19%8%
Trump's executive order to declassify and release government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life heightened market expectations for official confirmation, driving prices up notably for the December 31 outcome.
Trump directs federal agencies to identify and declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Trump ordered federal agencies to begin releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrials, initiating a rolling disclosure process. This directive significantly increased market optimism about potential confirmation, reflected in a price jump.
Trump orders agencies to release alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 26%5%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had directed the Pentagon and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files on alien life and UAPs. Traders interpreted the directive as a concrete step toward official disclosure, pushing the "December 31" probability up 5 points to a peak of 26 % on 20 Feb.
Trump directs agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 22%12%
President Donald Trump announced on social media that he would direct the Defense Secretary and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UFOs, and UAPs. This announcement caused the largest single-day jump in market prices, reflecting increased belief in imminent disclosure.
Trump directs US government to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 18%8%
On February 20, 2026, former President Donald Trump announced he would direct the Department of Defense and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and UFOs. This announcement caused the market price for the December 31 outcome to jump from 10% to 18%, reflecting increased optimism about potential official confirmation.
President Trump tweets that UFO disclosures are “coming soon” after Pentagon release
December 31 dips to 14%3%
Following the Pentagon’s file drop, Trump posted on Truth Social that more revelations were imminent, reinforcing market expectations that the government might soon confirm extraterrestrial evidence, driving the price to a peak.
Scientific community clarifies no evidence of alien contact despite political statements
December 31 dips to 16%2%
Scientific experts, including SETI Institute leadership, emphasized that while extraterrestrial life is statistically probable, no credible evidence of alien visitation exists. This tempered market enthusiasm slightly but did not reverse gains from Trump's directive.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and alien files
December 31 jumps to 17%7%
Trump directed the Defense Department and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to aliens and UFOs, signaling increased transparency and sparking market interest and price rises.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, Trump touts transparency
The Pentagon posted 162 previously classified UFO documents on a new website, a move highlighted by President Trump on Truth Social. The unprecedented disclosure revived speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, pushing the December‑31 contract up to 23% and lifting other dates as well.
US government launches transparency initiative releasing secret UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Following Trump's directive, the US government began releasing previously classified UFO files under a new transparency initiative involving multiple agencies, which increased market optimism about potential official confirmation.
President Trump Directs Federal Agencies to Declassify and Release UFO and Alien Files
December 31 jumps to 26%14%
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he would direct federal agencies, including the Department of Defense, to identify and declassify records related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life. This directive sparked a major wave of speculation, driving the December 31 outcome to its peak of 26% shortly after.
Trump directs Pentagon to release "very interesting" UFO files
December 31 rises to 26%4%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had directed the Department of War to begin releasing "very interesting" UFO documents. The announcement sparked a sharp rise in the market, lifting the December‑31 probability to a peak of 26 % on Feb 20, reflecting traders’ belief that a definitive confirmation could be imminent.
Trump Orders Pentagon to Release UFO Files on Alien Life
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump announced on social media that he would direct federal agencies to begin releasing government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, fueling speculation and driving early price increases for the December 31 outcome.
Trump directs Pentagon and agencies to release alien and UFO files
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Trump announced on Truth Social that he would direct the Pentagon and other agencies to begin releasing government files related to extraterrestrial life, UFOs, and UAPs.
Pentagon’s UAP website traffic spikes after media coverage
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Widespread reporting on the February 9 release drove a surge in public interest, pushing the December‑31 price to a 4‑point high of 13% and the September‑30 price to 15%, reflecting heightened belief in an imminent confirmation.
Trump orders Pentagon to begin releasing UFO and alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 22%11%
Trump posted on Truth Social that, because of “tremendous interest,” he was directing the Defense Secretary and other agencies to identify and release any government files on alien life and UAPs. The announcement sparked the market’s biggest single‑day jump (+11 points) on 2026‑02‑20, raising the “December 31” price to a peak of 22 %.
Former President Obama comments on extraterrestrial life likelihood
December 31 rises to 18%2%
Former President Barack Obama stated that while he saw no evidence of contact with extraterrestrials during his presidency, he believes statistically that life likely exists elsewhere in the universe. His comments helped fuel public and market interest in the topic, supporting the momentum from Trump's announcement.
President Trump orders declassification of UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 14%4%
Following Obama’s comments, Trump announced on social media directing the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, boosting market prices significantly.
President Trump orders release of government files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
President Trump announced he would direct the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to begin the process of identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, significantly increasing market interest and prices.
Trump threatens “friendly takeover” of Cuba during televised interview
September 30 drops to 7%7%
In a February 20 interview, Trump said the United States could consider a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, heightening fears of a dramatic geopolitical shift that could include disclosure of secret programs. The speculation drove the September 30 contract down from 14% to 7% and pushed the June 30 and May 31 contracts toward single‑digit levels.
President Trump orders US agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 20%10%
President Trump directed US government agencies, including the Department of Defense, to begin identifying and releasing files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, sparking increased market interest and a price surge for the December 31 outcome from 10% to 20%.
Pentagon confirms work on declassifying alien and UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon is working on declassifying files related to aliens and UFOs following Trump's directive, reinforcing market expectations for forthcoming disclosures.
President Trump directs release of government UFO files
December 31 surges to 26%15%
Trump ordered federal agencies to identify and release files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs, causing a sharp increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome due to heightened expectations of disclosure.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms Pentagon compliance with Trump's UFO disclosure order
December 31 jumps to 26%12%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the Pentagon was actively working to implement President Trump's directive to release government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life. This confirmation reinforced expectations of near-term releases and contributed to a peak in market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Trump orders full declassification of UFO and alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 18%11%
President Trump issued an executive order directing federal agencies to identify and declassify all records related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrials. The announcement sparked a surge in speculation, driving the market’s Yes‑probability for the “December 31” outcome from 7 % to 18 % within two days (priceBefore = 7, priceAfter = 18).
President Trump publicly promotes UFO document release and transparency
December 31 jumps to 18%8%
President Trump posted on social media emphasizing the transparency of the new UFO files release and inviting the public to decide what is going on. This statement reinforced market expectations that the government might confirm alien existence, causing a price spike.
President Trump directs agencies to release UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 14%4%
Trump ordered the Defense Department and other agencies to identify and release government files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs, raising public anticipation and causing a rise in market prices, especially for the December 31 outcome.
Pentagon confirms active work to implement Trump's directive on UFO file release
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon is actively working to identify and release government files related to unidentified aerial phenomena, signaling government compliance with the president's order and sustaining market confidence.
Trump Directs Pentagon and Federal Agencies to Release Government Files on Aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 18%7%
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he would order the public disclosure of government records related to extraterrestrial life and UAPs, driving the market to its peak.
Trump Directs Government Agencies to Release Files on Aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 17%6%
President Donald Trump ordered the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to identify and declassify files related to extraterrestrial life and UAPs, causing the market probability to spike.
Donald Trump Directs Federal Agencies to Declassify UFO and Alien Files
December 31 jumps to 18%7%
President Donald Trump announced he would order the Pentagon and other federal agencies to identify and release government files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs, driving up market expectations.
President Trump directs US agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Donald Trump announced he would direct federal agencies, including the Defense Department, to begin identifying and releasing government files related to aliens, extraterrestrial life, and UFOs. This directive sparked increased market interest and price rises as it signaled potential forthcoming disclosures.
President Trump directs agencies to release files on aliens and UAP
December 31 rises to 10%1%
President Donald Trump publicly ordered the Department of War and other federal agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs). This directive initiated the current declassification process and significantly increased market optimism about potential disclosure.
President Trump orders Pentagon to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 22%12%
Following Obama's comments, President Trump directed the Pentagon and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, increasing market optimism about potential disclosure.
President Trump orders declassification of UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
President Trump publicly directed the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs, initiating a government-wide transparency effort. This directive caused a surge in market interest and speculation about imminent disclosure.
President Trump directs government to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 18%6%
President Trump announced he would direct federal agencies, including the Defense Department, to begin releasing government files related to aliens and extraterrestrial life, following public interest and a recent statement by former President Obama. This announcement caused a significant market price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Trump orders government to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 24%14%
President Donald Trump directed the Department of Defense and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs, citing tremendous public interest. This announcement caused a sharp market price increase.
President Trump orders US agencies to release UFO and alien-related files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump directed the Secretary of Defense and other federal agencies to identify and release government files related to unidentified aerial phenomena and extraterrestrial life, initiating a coordinated declassification process. This directive sparked increased market optimism about potential disclosure.
President Trump orders agencies to declassify UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Trump posted on Truth Social that he would direct the Department of Defense and other agencies to “identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life.” The executive order was interpreted as a promise of imminent disclosure, pushing the “December 31” odds up another 4 points to 18 % on 2026‑02‑20.
Trump orders Pentagon to start releasing UFO and alien‑related files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was directing the Pentagon and other agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life. The announcement sparked a surge in market optimism for a near‑term confirmation, lifting the December‑31 outcome from 9 % to 10 % the following week.
President Trump orders release of government files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Following former President Obama's remarks that aliens are 'real' but not confirmed to have visited Earth, President Trump directed federal agencies to begin declassifying and releasing government files related to aliens and unidentified flying objects, fueling market interest in official confirmation.
President Trump directs Defense Department to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 rises to 10%1%
President Trump announced on social media his directive to Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and other officials to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, sparking initial market optimism and increased speculation about imminent confirmation.
Trump Directs Federal Agencies to Release Government Files on Aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 17%6%
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he would direct the Pentagon and other federal agencies to identify and release files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, causing prediction market odds to spike.
President Trump directs release of government files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 26%12%
Following Obama's remarks, Trump announced on Truth Social that he would direct the Defense Secretary and other agencies to identify and release government files related to extraterrestrial life and UAPs, causing the market's biggest single-day jump.
President Trump orders government to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 15%5%
In response to public interest and Obama's comments, President Trump directed the Department of Defense and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena, and UFOs, significantly boosting market optimism about official disclosure.
Trump Orders Pentagon to Release UFO and Alien Government Files
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Trump announced on social media that he would direct the Pentagon and other federal agencies to begin releasing government records related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs, sparking immediate market interest and price increases.
President Trump directs Department of War to act on UFO file release
December 31 rises to 14%4%
Trump used his social media platform to order the Department of War to begin releasing UFO files, reinforcing market expectations of imminent disclosure and driving prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Trump Orders Federal Agencies to Declassify and Release UFO and Alien Files
December 31 jumps to 18%6%
President Donald Trump announced he would direct federal agencies, including the Pentagon, to identify and release government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, sparking a surge in market speculation.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump‑prompted transparency push
December 31 jumps to 17%5%
The Department of Defense made public a trove of declassified UFO videos and reports, a move encouraged by President Trump’s recent social‑media calls for disclosure. Traders saw the unprecedented release as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 outcome.
Trump directs US government to prepare release of files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Donald Trump announced he would direct federal agencies to begin releasing government files related to aliens and unidentified flying objects, citing strong public interest and following former President Obama's comments suggesting aliens are real. This announcement caused a significant increase in market prices for confirmation by December 31, 2026.
President Trump directs Pentagon to release files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
President Donald Trump announced he would direct the Pentagon and other federal agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and UFOs. This announcement significantly increased market optimism about official confirmation of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2026.
Trump Directs US Agencies to Identify and Release Government Files on Aliens and UFOs
December 31 surges to 26%15%
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he is directing the Pentagon and other federal agencies to begin declassifying and releasing files related to extraterrestrial life and UAPs.
Trump orders agencies to declassify alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 17%6%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was directing the Department of War and other agencies to identify and release any government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs and UFOs. Traders interpreted the directive as a strong catalyst for possible disclosure, driving the market up 5 points from 11 % to 17 % on 2026‑02‑20.
President Trump directs federal agencies to release UFO and alien-related files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump announced he would direct the Pentagon and other agencies to begin releasing government files related to aliens and UFOs, citing strong public interest. This announcement increased market optimism about potential disclosure but did not confirm extraterrestrial life.
Trump orders agencies to release government files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Donald Trump directed the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs, responding to public interest and Obama's comments, causing a market price jump.
President Trump orders federal agencies to release UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 11%1%
President Trump directed the Pentagon and other federal agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs, sparking increased market interest and price rises due to expectations of disclosure.
Trump reiterates order to release UFO and alien files, sparking market surge
December 31 jumps to 17%11%
Following Obama's remarks and ongoing public interest, Trump reiterated his directive to release government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life, causing the market probability to jump sharply from 6% to 17%.
Former President Obama clarifies ambiguous remarks on extraterrestrial life
December 31 dips to 9%3%
Obama initially suggested aliens are real during a podcast but quickly backtracked, stating he saw no evidence of contact during his presidency. This clarification tempered public speculation and influenced market sentiment downward.
Former President Obama states aliens are 'real but I haven't seen them'
December 31 rises to 16%4%
Obama's public comment that extraterrestrials are real but he had not seen them reignited public interest and speculation about alien life, contributing to increased market probabilities for confirmation by December 31, 2026. This statement tempered enthusiasm with a cautious tone, influencing market sentiment.
Obama clarifies 'aliens are real' podcast comment, denies evidence of contact
December 31 dips to 10%1%
Former President Barack Obama caused a media stir by stating aliens are real during a podcast but quickly clarified he had seen no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency. This clarification tempered market enthusiasm but kept public interest high.
Former President Obama says aliens are 'real' but clarifies no evidence of contact
Obama's podcast comments stating aliens are "real" reignited public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life, though he clarified he saw no evidence of contact during his presidency. This statement set the stage for subsequent government actions and market reactions.
Former President Obama clarifies no evidence of alien contact despite 'aliens are real' podcast comment
Obama's clarification that he saw no evidence of extraterrestrial contact tempered public speculation and contributed to market uncertainty, limiting price gains for near-term confirmation outcomes.
President Trump directs Pentagon to release files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 12%1%
Following Obama's comments, Trump announced he would direct the Defense Department and other agencies to identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, fueling market optimism and price increases.
Former President Obama clarifies comments on aliens being 'real'
Barack Obama stated that while he believes extraterrestrial life likely exists statistically, he saw no evidence of alien contact during his presidency, tempering public speculation and impacting market sentiment about imminent official confirmation.
Obama clarifies alien comments after viral podcast statement
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Former President Barack Obama clarified his earlier podcast remarks that aliens are "real" by stating he saw no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency. This clarification tempered market speculation following the viral moment, impacting short-term price movements.
Former President Obama states aliens are 'real' but clarifies no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama's podcast comment that aliens are 'real' but he had not seen them reignited public and market speculation about extraterrestrial life, causing a slight increase in market prices. He later clarified that he saw no evidence of contact during his presidency, tempering expectations.
Former President Obama clarifies remarks on extraterrestrial life after sparking UFO speculation
Obama initially suggested aliens are "real" during a podcast, causing a media frenzy and conspiracy theories. He later clarified his comments, stating he saw no evidence of alien contact during his presidency, which tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price stability.
Obama clarifies views on aliens after saying 'they're real' on podcast
Former President Barack Obama initially said aliens are real during a podcast, sparking media frenzy. He later clarified that while statistically life likely exists elsewhere, he saw no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency. This clarification tempered speculation and influenced market sentiment.
Former President Obama clarifies alien comments, sees no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama stated in a podcast and later clarified that while he believes extraterrestrial life likely exists statistically, he saw no evidence during his presidency of contact with aliens. This tempered market expectations for imminent confirmation.
Trump orders agencies to release all UFO and alien‑related files
December 31 surges to 26%15%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing all government files related to alien life and UAPs. The pledge reinforced expectations of a definitive disclosure, pushing the “December 31” odds up to a peak of 26 % on 2026‑02‑20.
Barack Obama Stirs Speculation by Stating Aliens Are 'Real' on Podcast
December 31 jumps to 18%7%
Former President Barack Obama caused an online stir by telling a podcaster that aliens were 'real', though he later clarified his comments were based on statistical probability rather than personal knowledge.
Obama walks back alien admission after viral podcast clip
December 31 dips to 7%1%
Obama clarified his earlier remarks, stating no evidence of extraterrestrial contact was seen during his presidency, tempering market enthusiasm and causing some price adjustments.
Obama states aliens are real but no evidence of contact
Former President Barack Obama said in a podcast that aliens are real but he has not seen evidence of contact with Earth. He later clarified that his statement referred to the statistical likelihood of life elsewhere in the universe. This statement sparked renewed public interest and contributed to the market's rising prices.
Obama Clarifies Alien Comments, Stating He Saw No Evidence of Contact While in Office
December 31 dips to 10%1%
Following a massive media frenzy, Obama clarified on Instagram that his comments were statistical and that he saw no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency.
Obama clarifies alien comments, denies evidence of contact
After viral media coverage of Obama's statement that aliens are 'real,' he clarified that while life elsewhere is statistically likely, there was no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency, tempering market enthusiasm.
Former President Obama states aliens are 'real' but no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 10%1%
In a widely reported podcast interview, former President Obama acknowledged the statistical likelihood of extraterrestrial life, saying 'They're real,' but clarified he had seen no evidence of contact during his presidency. This statement increased public and market interest in the topic, contributing to speculation about upcoming disclosures.
U.S. and Venezuela explore restoring diplomatic ties after Maduro’s capture
September 30 drops to 9%5%
The announcement of diplomatic talks signaled a shift in focus away from the dramatic capture of Maduro, dampening speculation that the administration would soon confirm alien evidence, leading to a drop in the September 30 odds from 14% to 9%.
Former President Obama claims aliens are real on podcast
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
Former President Obama said on a podcast that “aliens are real but I haven’t seen them,” which sparked a massive media frenzy and lifted market expectations for a U.S. confirmation before the end of the year. The “December 31” probability jumped from 9 % to 14 % in the days that followed.
Former President Obama says aliens are 'real' but no evidence seen
Obama stated in a podcast that aliens are "real" but clarified later that he had not seen any evidence of contact during his presidency. This statement sparked widespread media attention and public speculation, increasing market interest in official confirmation.
Obama says aliens are 'real' but clarifies no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Former President Barack Obama stated in a podcast that aliens are "real," sparking widespread speculation. He quickly clarified on Instagram that he had seen no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency, tempering expectations but fueling public interest.
Obama clarifies alien comments after podcast claims 'they're real'
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Former President Barack Obama initially said aliens are "real" during a podcast, causing media frenzy. He later clarified that he meant statistically life likely exists in the universe but he saw no evidence of contact during his presidency. This sparked renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life.
Obama states aliens are 'real' but no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Former President Barack Obama said in a podcast that aliens are "real" but he had not seen evidence of contact during his presidency, sparking renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This statement triggered increased market activity on the possibility of US confirmation of aliens.
Former President Obama says aliens are 'real' in podcast interview
Barack Obama clarified in a podcast that aliens are real based on the vastness of the universe, sparking renewed public and market interest in extraterrestrial life.
Trump orders federal agencies to identify and release all alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump issued a formal directive to the Secretary of War and other agency heads to locate, de‑classify and release any government files related to alien life, UAPs and UFOs. The announcement sparked a surge of speculation that a confirmation could arrive before year‑end, lifting the December 31 outcome from 9 % to 14 % on 2026‑02‑14.
Former President Barack Obama Sparks Speculation by Stating Aliens Are 'Real' on Podcast
December 31 rises to 10%1%
During an interview on a popular podcast, Barack Obama made offhand remarks suggesting aliens are real, which ignited widespread public speculation and kicked off a wave of market interest.
Barack Obama Sparks Frenzy by Saying Aliens Are Real on Podcast
December 31 rises to 11%1%
Former President Barack Obama stated that aliens are 'real' during a podcast lightning round, which went viral and reignited public speculation, though he later clarified he meant it in a statistical sense.
Former President Obama states belief that aliens are real in podcast
September 30 jumps to 23%9%
Obama's public statement acknowledging belief in alien life reignited public and political interest, prompting President Trump to commit to releasing government UFO files, which influenced market optimism early in the window.
Former President Obama says aliens are 'real' in podcast, then clarifies
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama appeared to confirm the existence of extraterrestrials during a podcast lightning round but later clarified he had seen no evidence of alien contact during his presidency. This statement reignited public and political interest in UFO disclosure, influencing market sentiment.
President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Same event as above, affecting the June‑30 contract which fell from 10% to 8% in the days following the announcement.
Former President Obama states no evidence of alien contact during his presidency
Obama publicly clarified that despite the vastness of the universe, he saw no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency, which tempered public expectations and influenced market sentiment.
President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade
May 31 dips to 4%2%
Same event, driving the May‑31 contract down from 6% to 4% as traders priced in a prolonged hostile U.S. stance.
Former President Obama comments on existence of aliens in podcast
Obama stated aliens are 'real' statistically but clarified he saw no evidence of contact during his presidency, fueling public speculation and media coverage that influenced market prices.
Obama says aliens are 'real' but clarifies no evidence of contact
Former President Barack Obama stated in a podcast that aliens are "real" but immediately clarified he had not seen evidence of contact with Earth, sparking renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with public urged to draw own conclusions
December 31 jumps to 18%8%
The Pentagon started releasing a batch of previously classified UFO files, including videos and documents describing unidentified aerial phenomena. President Trump highlighted the release, encouraging the public to interpret the information themselves, which increased market optimism about possible official confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
Barack Obama Sparks Alien Speculation in Podcast Interview
December 31 rises to 11%1%
Former President Barack Obama stated that aliens are real but he hasn't seen them, sparking widespread public interest and setting off a chain of political reactions.
President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade
September 30 dips to 12%2%
Trump announced a new round of tariffs targeting countries that supply oil to Cuba, heightening the U.S. energy blockade. The move was seen as a signal that the administration would not soften its stance, reducing market confidence that any U.S. official would acknowledge alien life soon, causing a drop in the September‑30, June‑30 and May‑31 contracts.
Former President Obama states 'aliens are real' in podcast, then clarifies
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama's initial comment that aliens are real sparked widespread media attention and public speculation. He later clarified that he had seen no evidence of extraterrestrial contact during his presidency, tempering expectations but fueling interest in the topic.
Joint Chiefs convene rare meeting of Western Hemisphere military leaders
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff convened a rare meeting of military leaders from 34 Western Hemisphere countries to strengthen cooperation against drug trafficking and criminal organizations. This event underscored the US government's focus on hemispheric security but did not relate to alien confirmation, thus having no direct impact on the market.
Joint Chiefs Chairman convenes rare multilateral military summit
June 30 dips to 10%1%
The Joint Chiefs chairman held a rare multilateral military meeting. Although unrelated to UFOs, the event was cited in market commentary as a possible venue for sharing classified UAP data, contributing to a modest uptick in the “June 30” line in late February.
Pentagon releases new UFO files with no definitive alien confirmation
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
The Pentagon published a trove of previously unreleased UFO files, including videos and testimonies, which fueled speculation but explicitly did not confirm extraterrestrial life. This event increased market interest in the December 31 outcome, pushing its price from 9% to 14%.
President Trump orders release of government files on extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 11%2%
President Trump issued an executive order directing federal agencies to identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, initiating a 300-day countdown for declassification. This action sparked increased market interest and a price rise for the December 31 outcome from 9% to 11%.
Former President Obama states aliens are real but unseen
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama's public statement acknowledging the reality of aliens, though without direct evidence, sparked renewed public interest and increased market prices for the December 31 outcome.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
President Trump directed federal agencies to identify and release government files related to alien life and UFOs, initiating a formal disclosure process. This official action increased market optimism about potential confirmation of aliens, causing a price rise for the December 31 outcome.
Joint Chiefs Chairman details Maduro capture operation
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Gen. Dan Caine provided a detailed account of the meticulously planned US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting extensive intelligence and military coordination. This high-profile event increased attention on US government actions but did not relate directly to alien confirmation, causing minor market fluctuations.
President Trump directs federal agencies to release files on alien and extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 11%2%
In February 2026, President Donald Trump ordered federal agencies to identify and begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs. This directive increased market optimism about potential confirmation, reflected in rising prices for longer-term outcomes.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files to the public
December 31 jumps to 16%7%
The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, which pushed the December‑31 outcome up to 16% on Feb 20.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump directed the Department of Defense and other agencies to identify and release government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, sparking increased market interest and a price rise for the December 31 outcome. This order was seen as a significant step toward potential disclosure but did not include any definitive confirmation.
Pentagon releases new UFO files amid Trump’s push for alien transparency
December 31 jumps to 20%10%
The Department of Defense declassified a batch of UFO videos and reports, a move publicly encouraged by President Trump on Truth Social. Traders saw this as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December 31 odds from 10% to 20%.
Pentagon releases declassified UFO files, Trump touts transparency on alien phenomena
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
The Department of Defense made a batch of previously classified UFO documents public, and President Trump highlighted the release on Truth Social, suggesting the government was moving toward confirming extraterrestrial evidence. Traders interpreted this as a boost to the likelihood of a formal U.S. acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 contract.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation on alien life
The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting President Trump to tweet about the need for transparency. Traders interpreted the disclosure as a possible step toward an official confirmation, lifting the market’s odds in early February.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The Pentagon started releasing a trove of previously classified UFO files, including videos and documents, as part of a transparency effort led by President Trump. This release sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial phenomena but did not include any definitive confirmation of alien life, causing a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 17%8%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of new UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This event caused a notable increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting heightened optimism about a possible official confirmation.
Trump administration releases new batch of Pentagon UFO files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The Trump administration released a trove of declassified Pentagon files on UFO sightings, including videos and testimonies, renewing public interest in extraterrestrial phenomena. However, the files did not confirm alien existence, leading to a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome but no definitive resolution.
Trump administration reportedly agrees to disclose alien secrets at US bases
Reports on February 6 indicated that the Trump administration had allowed the release of all information linked to secret UFO facilities such as Area 51, including alleged alien bodies and recovered spacecraft. This reinforced market expectations for disclosure but did not constitute an official confirmation, keeping prices steady around 10%.
Federal judge restores Pentagon press credentials for major newspapers
A district court ruled that the Pentagon’s new media‑access policy violated First Amendment rights, ordering the reinstatement of credentials for outlets like The New York Times. The decision signaled a potential increase in reporting on classified UFO matters, but also highlighted internal conflicts, causing a modest pullback in market prices to around 9% for all outcomes.
Whistleblower David Grusch says Trump fully briefed on secret UFO programs
Whistleblower David Grusch publicly stated that President Trump had been fully briefed on secret UFO programs and extraterrestrial information, fueling ongoing speculation. However, official agencies denied evidence of extraterrestrial life, keeping market prices low at 9%.
President Trump emphasizes transparency on UFO files and public interpretation
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump publicly highlighted the release of UFO files and encouraged the public to interpret the information themselves, signaling a more open approach to the topic of extraterrestrial life. This statement contributed to increased market confidence in a potential official confirmation by the end of the year.
Congressional briefing reveals classified UFO videos showing objects defying physics
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Congressman Burlison reported that classified Pentagon briefings included videos of UAPs exhibiting impossible physics, intensifying congressional pressure for transparency and sustaining market interest in disclosure by year-end.
Trump reportedly preparing historic UFO disclosure speech confirming alien materials
Reports claimed President Trump was preparing a speech potentially confirming forensic analysis of recovered non-Earth-origin craft and non-human biological materials, reinforcing market speculation about official confirmation.
Reports of Trump preparing historic UFO disclosure speech with possible alien evidence
Reports emerged that President Trump was preparing a historic speech potentially revealing decades of UFO evidence, including recovered alien materials and non-human life. This fueled market speculation but no official disclosure occurred, resulting in minor price fluctuations.
President Trump publicly teases major UFO document dump
December 31 rises to 10%1%
President Trump publicly teased a major release of UFO documents, increasing speculation and market interest in official disclosure. This statement helped drive early February price increases for the December 31 outcome.
Reports emerge that former President Trump is preparing historic UFO disclosure speech
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Media reports claimed that Donald Trump was preparing a historic speech potentially confirming recovered alien materials and non-human life, fueling speculation about official confirmation in 2026. Although unverified, these reports heightened market expectations for disclosure by year-end.
Reports highlight mounting pressure for US UFO evidence disclosure in 2026
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Reports in early 2026 emphasized growing congressional momentum, whistleblower activity, and cultural shifts pushing for UFO disclosure, sustaining market interest though no official confirmation occurred.
Reports that Trump preparing to authorize full UFO disclosure speech
Media reported that President Trump was preparing a historic speech to disclose decades of UFO evidence, including possible alien materials and non-human life, increasing market speculation about imminent official confirmation. No actual disclosure occurred during the window, but anticipation remained high.
Space shuttle Columbia disaster remembered on anniversary
The anniversary of the space shuttle Columbia disaster was observed, recalling the loss of seven astronauts. While space-related, this event did not influence the market for alien confirmation.
Reports of Trump preparing historic UFO disclosure speech for July 8, 2026
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Speculation grew that President Trump had drafted a major speech to confirm extraterrestrial life, timed for the Roswell anniversary, causing a brief market uptick though no official confirmation was made during the window.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
In February 2026, President Donald Trump directed federal agencies to identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and UFOs. This unprecedented move initiated the process that led to the release of classified documents, significantly increasing market interest in the possibility of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
Reports of Trump preparing historic UFO disclosure speech for July 8, 2026
December 31 rises to 9%2%
British filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claimed a Trump administration adviser informed him that President Trump has written a speech confirming extraterrestrial life, planned for July 8, 2026. This speculation increased market speculation about imminent official confirmation, though no official announcement has been made.
Speculation grows on Trump preparing historic UFO disclosure speech
December 31 rises to 10%1%
By late January 2026, media reports indicated that President Trump was preparing a historic speech potentially confirming recovered alien materials and non-human life. This anticipation likely supported the market price rise to 10%.
US Lawmaker Claims Trump Authorized Access to Classified UFO Bases and Non-Human Bodies
December 31 dips to 9%1%
US Congressman Eric Burlison claimed that the Trump administration authorized access to classified UFO facilities and that the President has been fully briefed on recovered craft and non-human remains.
Whistleblower David Grusch confirms President Trump fully briefed on UAP programs
December 31 dips to 9%1%
David Grusch, a former US Air Force intelligence officer and whistleblower, stated that President Trump was fully briefed on secret UFO programs, reinforcing market speculation about potential disclosure, though no definitive proof or official statement was made.
US to release UFO evidence in 2026 as officials face mounting pressure
December 31 dips to 9%1%
The US government faces mounting pressure to disclose UFO evidence in 2026, with the National Defense Authorization Act mandating new briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004.
Unverified claims of Trump UFO disclosure speech in July 2026 circulate
December 31 dips to 7%3%
Reports surfaced alleging President Trump would disclose alien existence at the UN on July 8, 2026, coinciding with the Roswell anniversary. The lack of official confirmation led to market skepticism and price declines, reflecting doubts about the credibility of these claims.
Insider reports confirm Trump’s UFO disclosure speech planned for July 8, 2026
December 31 rises to 10%1%
By late January, multiple sources including documentary filmmakers and media outlets reported that President Trump had drafted a historic UFO disclosure speech scheduled for July 8, 2026, coinciding with the Roswell anniversary. This reinforced market expectations for a future official confirmation, though no immediate disclosure occurred.
Congressional and whistleblower pressure intensifies for UFO disclosure in 2026
December 31 dips to 9%1%
Reports highlighted escalating congressional momentum, whistleblower activity, and cultural shifts pushing for government transparency on UFOs. This sustained pressure maintained market interest and prices around 9-10%.
NASA study disproves alien spaceship theory for interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 9%1%
On January 28, 2026, NASA and astronomers released findings disproving claims that the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS was alien technology, dampening speculative enthusiasm and stabilizing market prices.
US Congressman claims Trump authorized access to secret UFO evidence sites
December 31 rises to 10%1%
On February 6, 2026, reports emerged that former President Donald Trump authorized access to classified UFO sites allegedly containing proof of alien life. This fueled speculation about upcoming official disclosures, contributing to a slight market price increase.
Congress Passes NDAA Mandating UFO Briefings on UAPs
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 was passed, requiring briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004 and calling for a review of excessive classification.
US Joint Chiefs of Staff convene rare meeting of Western Hemisphere military leaders
December 31 dips to 10%1%
General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, organized a summit of military leaders from the Western Hemisphere, signaling heightened military coordination. While not directly about aliens, this event reflected increased military activity and leadership visibility during the disclosure speculation period, supporting market interest in December 31 outcome.
Congress passes 2026 spending bills funding NASA and science agencies
On January 23, Congress passed fiscal year 2026 spending bills including funding for NASA and related science agencies, signaling continued government support for space and extraterrestrial research. While not a direct confirmation, this legislative action contributed to the broader context of increased transparency and disclosure efforts.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine convenes rare military meeting
December 31 rises to 11%2%
General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, convened a rare meeting of Western Hemisphere military leaders, highlighting the administration's focus on security issues amid ongoing UFO and extraterrestrial discussions, indirectly supporting market interest.
Legislative Mandates Increase Pressure for UAP Disclosure in 2026
December 31 dips to 10%2%
The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandated Pentagon briefings to Congress on UAP encounters since 2004 and reviews of over-classification, intensifying political pressure for disclosure. This legislative action sustained market interest, stabilizing the December 31 outcome price around 10%.
US military details timeline of operation to capture Maduro
Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine detailed the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, highlighting the use of over 150 aircraft including F-22s, F-35s, and B-1 bombers.
FAA updates orders to formalize UAP reporting protocols
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The FAA's January 2026 order formalized mandatory reporting protocols for UAP observations by air traffic control, linking them to the Pentagon's AARO framework, signaling institutional acceptance and ongoing investigation, supporting a modest price recovery to 10%.
US Congress mandates new briefings and reviews on UFO encounters in 2026 NDAA
December 31 dips to 10%2%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 included requirements for updated briefings on UAP encounters and reviews of classified material, increasing legislative pressure for transparency. This legislative action contributed to market speculation but no direct confirmation was issued.
Speculation grows on Trump’s planned July 8, 2026 speech confirming alien existence
December 31 rises to 10%3%
UK filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claimed that President Trump has drafted a historic speech scheduled for July 8, 2026, to confirm extraterrestrial life, coinciding with the Roswell anniversary. This claim intensified market speculation about official confirmation within 2026, supporting price increases for the December 31 outcome.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' highlights government concealment claims
December 31 dips to 11%3%
The documentary featuring 34 US government insiders alleging a multi-decade cover-up of non-human intelligent life brought renewed attention to the issue, reinforcing public and political pressure for disclosure. This contributed to sustained market interest though no official confirmation followed.
Congressman Burlison claims Trump authorized access to secret UFO bases
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Missouri Congressman Eric Burlison stated that President Trump was fully briefed on alien existence and authorized congressional visits to secret UFO-related military sites, raising hopes for tangible proof and boosting market prices.
Landmark UAP press conference at National Press Club presents new evidence
December 31 rises to 12%4%
Investigative filmmaker James Fox hosted a press conference featuring witnesses and officials presenting new evidence related to non-human encounters and crash-retrieval programs, increasing public and political focus on UFO disclosure. This event coincided with a price increase from 8% to 12% mid-January 2026, reflecting renewed market interest.
US Department of Homeland Security highlights enforcement actions unrelated to alien disclosure
The DHS released statements about enforcement actions against criminal illegal aliens, which did not relate to extraterrestrial confirmation and had no clear impact on the market for alien disclosure.
James Fox Hosts UAP Press Conference with New Evidence and Witnesses
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Filmmaker James Fox held a landmark press conference at the National Press Club featuring firsthand witnesses, medical experts, and insiders presenting new evidence related to alleged non-human encounters and crash-retrieval programs. This event increased market optimism, pushing the December 31 outcome price to 12%.
UAP press conference at National Press Club presents new evidence on non-human encounters
December 31 rises to 10%2%
A high-profile press conference brought together witnesses and officials to present new evidence related to alleged non-human encounters, maintaining public and market interest in UFO disclosure prospects in 2026.
Whistleblower David Grusch confirms President Trump fully briefed on UAPs
December 31 rises to 11%2%
David Grusch, a prominent whistleblower, stated that President Trump was fully briefed on secret UFO programs, reinforcing market expectations of potential disclosure though no definitive proof was released, contributing to a price rise.
Republican lawmaker demands release of additional UAP videos
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna publicly urged the Pentagon to release more UAP footage, intensifying congressional pressure for transparency and suggesting a possible forthcoming official acknowledgment before the year’s end, which pushed the December 31 price up further.
James Fox hosts landmark UAP press conference presenting new testimonies and evidence
December 31 dips to 9%1%
The press conference brought together witnesses, medical experts, and insiders to present new evidence related to alleged non-human encounters and crash-retrieval programs. While significant, it did not include official US government confirmation, resulting in stable market prices.
Former Bank of England Analyst Warns of U.S. Alien Disclosure
December 31 dips to 10%3%
Helen McCaw reiterated her warning about U.S. confirmation of technologically advanced non-human intelligence behind UAPs, emphasizing potential financial turbulence.
Speculation Continues on Trump’s Upcoming Alien Disclosure Announcement
December 31 rises to 13%4%
Market price rose to 13% amid ongoing speculation about a planned announcement by President Trump confirming alien contact, though no official confirmation was made during the analysis window.
Renewed insider speculation on imminent UFO evidence disclosure in 2026
December 31 rises to 13%4%
In mid-January 2026, reports highlighted escalating congressional momentum, whistleblower activity, and cultural shifts building pressure for disclosure, causing a price uptick in the market.
Renewed market interest amid ongoing whistleblower activity
December 31 rises to 13%4%
The market price rose again to 13% as whistleblowers and political efforts continued into early 2026, sustaining speculation about imminent disclosure. However, no official confirmation was made, keeping probabilities moderate.
Whistleblower Activity and Legislative Pressure Build for UFO Disclosure in 2026
December 31 rises to 12%2%
Reports highlighted escalating congressional momentum, whistleblower testimonies, and cultural shifts pushing for transparency on UFOs and extraterrestrial evidence. The National Defense Authorization Act for 2026 mandated new briefings and reviews, intensifying expectations of disclosure and causing a market price peak.
Reports of escalating US congressional pressure for UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 14%4%
Media reported intensifying legislative momentum and whistleblower activity pushing for US government disclosure of UFO evidence in 2026, including claims of covert programs to reverse-engineer alien technology. This news heightened market optimism, reflected in a price peak for the December 31 outcome.
Insider speculation grows on US UFO evidence release amid legislative pressure
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Reports highlighted escalating congressional momentum, whistleblower activity, and cultural shifts pushing for disclosure of UFO evidence, with the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandating briefings and reviews, driving a market price spike to 13%.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' fuels speculation on government UFO cover-up
December 31 rises to 14%2%
The release of a documentary featuring 34 US government insiders alleging a multi-decade concealment of non-human intelligent life increased public and political pressure for disclosure. This media event helped drive market prices to their highest point during the analysis window.
Former Bank of England analyst warns of financial risks from potential alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Helen McCaw, a former Bank of England analyst, publicly urged preparations for a possible US confirmation of alien life, warning of potential financial market instability. This heightened awareness of imminent disclosure likely contributed to a market price spike to 13%.
Vermont lawmaker proposes state task force to study UAPs
December 31 rises to 13%4%
Rep. Troy Headrick introduced legislation to create a state-level UFO panel, reflecting growing political momentum and public interest in UAP transparency. While not a federal confirmation, this development contributed to ongoing discourse and market attention.
Speculation grows on Trump confirming alien existence amid whistleblower pressure
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Insider reports and whistleblower activity intensified speculation that the US government might reveal authentic UFO evidence in 2026, with legislative momentum and cultural shifts increasing pressure on secrecy, contributing to market price fluctuations.
Insider speculation grows that US may reveal UFO evidence in 2026
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Reports highlighted escalating congressional momentum, whistleblower activity, and legislative mandates for UFO briefings, increasing market confidence in a disclosure by the end of 2026.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The Pentagon began releasing a new trove of UFO-related documents and videos, with President Trump encouraging the public to draw their own conclusions about the phenomena.
Bank of England warned to prepare for alien disclosure
On January 18, a senior Bank of England official publicly warned about potential financial market volatility due to an imminent US alien disclosure, reflecting growing expectations of official confirmation and sustaining market interest.
US government insiders and whistleblowers fuel speculation of UFO disclosure in 2026
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Reports emerged of US government insiders and whistleblowers alleging a global cover-up of non-human intelligence and secret programs to reverse-engineer alien technology. This intensified speculation about an official disclosure, pushing market prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Reports of Trump planning July 8, 2026 alien disclosure speech
December 31 rises to 12%2%
A source close to the Trump administration revealed that the date for a major statement on extraterrestrials was set for July 8, 2026, causing a modest market uptick but no immediate confirmation.
Renewed media reports of Trump insiders claiming a UFO disclosure speech is ready
December 31 rises to 12%4%
Reports and insider claims re-emerged that President Trump had prepared a historic UFO disclosure speech, raising market optimism and causing a price uptick from 8% to 12%.
US officials and whistleblowers intensify pressure for UFO disclosure in 2026
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
Reports highlighted ongoing efforts by whistleblowers like David Grusch and legislative pushes such as the UAP Disclosure Act amendments, increasing expectations of official revelations about extraterrestrial technology. This political momentum contributed to a peak in market prices for confirmation by December 31.
Escalating congressional and whistleblower pressure for UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Reports highlighted intensifying legislative mandates and whistleblower activity pushing for transparency on UFOs, including the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act requiring briefings and reviews of classified information. This renewed market optimism, causing a price uptick.
Media reports warn alien revelations could trigger financial crisis
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Newsweek and other outlets highlighted that President Trump might reveal alien existence, referencing the documentary and whistleblower claims. This media attention briefly increased market optimism about disclosure by year-end.
UK Bank of England official warns of market volatility from possible alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 11%2%
A Bank of England official publicly urged preparation for potential confirmation of extraterrestrial life, citing risks of extreme price volatility and collapse in confidence. This unusual financial sector attention reflected growing seriousness of disclosure speculation, supporting market price gains.
Former Bank of England analyst warns of imminent US alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Helen McCaw, ex-Bank of England analyst, publicly urged preparation for a US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life, citing ongoing multi-year declassification efforts. Her warning about potential financial market volatility increased market attention and speculation about a 2026 disclosure.
Whistleblower David Grusch continues advising congressional caucuses on UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Ongoing whistleblower activity, particularly from David Grusch, maintained legislative pressure for disclosure in early 2026, contributing to a slight market price increase reflecting sustained optimism about official confirmation by year-end.
Continued political and whistleblower pressure sustains disclosure speculation
December 31 rises to 11%2%
By mid-January 2026, ongoing efforts by whistleblowers and congressional caucuses maintained market interest, keeping prices around 10-11%, though no definitive confirmation was made, reflecting sustained but cautious optimism.
Bank of England warns of financial market volatility from potential alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 12%3%
A senior Bank of England member publicly warned that confirmation of extraterrestrial life could cause extreme market volatility and collapse in confidence, reflecting growing anticipation and concern about disclosure's impact.
Bank of England analyst warns of financial risks from potential US alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 12%2%
Helen McCaw, a former Bank of England analyst, publicly urged preparations for a possible US confirmation of extraterrestrial life, citing a multi-year declassification process. Her warning about market volatility and confidence collapse reflected growing seriousness around disclosure expectations, influencing market prices.
Reports claim Trump plans alien announcement during 2026 World Cup
December 31 rises to 10%2%
British filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee stated that President Trump intends to make a major announcement about extraterrestrial life during the 2026 World Cup, sustaining market interest in a late-2026 disclosure.
Whistleblower David Grusch continues advising congressional caucuses on UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 11%3%
David Grusch, a former US Air Force intelligence officer and prominent whistleblower, maintained his advisory role to Congress, sustaining legislative momentum and market interest in potential disclosure.
Whistleblower activity and congressional efforts intensify UFO disclosure push
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Continued whistleblower testimonies and legislative initiatives in early 2026 sustained market interest and caused a moderate price increase, reflecting growing belief in imminent disclosure.
Claims Trump will announce first contact with aliens during 2026 World Cup
December 31 rises to 11%3%
In January 2026, reports emerged that President Trump had prepared a speech to confirm first contact with an alien civilization during the 2026 World Cup, briefly increasing market optimism for a mid-year confirmation, though no official announcement was made in the window.
Filmmaker claims Trump to announce first contact with aliens during 2026 World Cup
British filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee stated that Trump would confirm first contact with aliens during the 2026 World Cup, specifically preparing a speech for this event, which sustained market interest in a mid-year disclosure.
Whistleblower activity and congressional momentum intensify pressure for UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Statements from whistleblowers like David Grusch and ongoing congressional efforts increased pressure on the government to disclose information about extraterrestrial technology, causing a market price peak at 12% on January 17, 2026.
Bank of England Analyst Urges Preparation for US Alien Disclosure
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Helen McCaw, former senior analyst at the Bank of England, warned Governor Andrew Bailey that the US government may confirm extraterrestrial life, citing potential extreme market volatility and collapse in confidence.
Whistleblower activity and legislative efforts intensify disclosure pressure
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Ongoing efforts by whistleblowers advising congressional caucuses and proposed amendments to the UAP Disclosure Act increased political momentum for revealing extraterrestrial information, causing a temporary price uptick.
Pentagon releases new UFO/UAP files for public review
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The Pentagon began releasing declassified files on unidentified anomalous phenomena, including old State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts. While the files contained unresolved cases, the administration emphasized public transparency and allowed the public to draw their own conclusions about potential extraterrestrial activity.
Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP incidents since 2004
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
The NDAA 2026 includes provisions requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts dating back to 2004, increasing expectations for transparency on extraterrestrial encounters.
Former Bank of England analyst warns of financial risks from potential US alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Helen McCaw, a former Bank of England senior analyst, publicly urged preparation for a possible US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life, warning of extreme market volatility and confidence collapse. This heightened awareness likely supported a price rise in the market for the December 31 outcome.
Speculation of President Trump preparing historic alien disclosure statement
December 31 dips to 9%3%
Reports emerged that President Trump was preparing to make a historic statement about extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling market optimism and causing a price peak. However, no official confirmation followed, leading to subsequent price declines.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with public transparency focus
December 31 rises to 9%1%
On January 16, 2026, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files, including old State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts, emphasizing transparency and allowing the public to draw their own conclusions. This event increased market interest in the possibility of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a price rise from 8% to 9% for the December 31 outcome.
Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrial civilizations
December 31 rises to 8%1%
Reports indicated that President Trump was preparing to make the most important statement in history regarding extraterrestrial life, which briefly raised market optimism but did not lead to immediate confirmation, with prices around 8-10%.
US President Trump reportedly preparing historic announcement on alien contact
December 31 rises to 9%1%
Documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee reported that former President Donald Trump has drafted a speech to confirm humanity's first contact with aliens, fueling market speculation about a disclosure by year-end.
Announcement that President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Reports in mid-January 2026 indicated that President Trump was preparing to make a significant statement regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, which briefly increased market optimism about official confirmation within the year.
US President Trump Prepares for Historic Statement on Extraterrestrial Contact
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Trump is reportedly preparing to make the most important statement in human history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, according to a Daily Star report citing documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee.
US President Donald Trump to make historic statement on extraterrestrial civilizations
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
Trump is preparing to announce the first confirmed contact with aliens, described as the most important statement in human history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations. This high-profile announcement significantly boosted market anticipation for official confirmation.
Reports claim former President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Media reports surfaced that former President Donald Trump was preparing to make a significant statement regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling speculation and causing a temporary market price increase. However, no official confirmation followed, limiting sustained price gains.
Trump Prepares for Historic Statement on Extraterrestrial Contact
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Reports indicated President Trump was preparing to make a major statement about first contact with aliens, described as the most important statement in human history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.
Reports emerge that former President Trump plans historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Media reports on January 16, 2026, claimed that Donald Trump was preparing to announce first contact with extraterrestrials, fueling speculation and a temporary price increase in the market. This raised hopes of imminent official confirmation, though no actual statement was made at that time.
Pentagon begins releasing new files on UFOs
December 31 rises to 11%3%
The Pentagon released a new batch of UFO-related documents, which President Trump promoted as a transparency effort, allowing the public to draw their own conclusions about unidentified anomalous phenomena.
Trump to announce first contact with aliens at 2026 FIFA World Cup
December 31 rises to 11%2%
British director Mark Christopher Lee claimed Trump had prepared a speech to announce first human contact with aliens during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, citing the 79th anniversary of the Roswell UFO crash as the announcement date.
US announces Trump will make historic extraterrestrials statement
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Russian outlet Izvestia reported that the White House had announced Trump would make “the most important statement in the history of mankind regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.” The claim revived speculation that a formal declaration could arrive before the year’s end, nudging the market back up to 10 % in mid‑January.
Reports claim Trump to announce first contact with aliens in 2026
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Media reports citing documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claimed President Trump plans to make a historic announcement confirming first contact with extraterrestrials, fueling market speculation despite no official confirmation yet.
Izvestia reports Trump is preparing an historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Izvestia published a story quoting the Daily Star that President Trump was preparing an “historical statement” on extraterrestrials. The announcement revived market optimism, lifting the Yes probability from 7 % on 2026‑01‑03 back up to 11 % on 2026‑01‑19, the only later rise in the window.
Announcement expected from President Trump on extraterrestrial contact
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
Reports indicated that President Trump was preparing to make a historic statement regarding extraterrestrial civilizations and first contact, fueling market speculation and a price increase to 14% on January 19, 2026. However, no official confirmation was made within the analysis window.
Trump prepares historic statement on extraterrestrial contact
December 31 rises to 11%4%
US President Donald Trump was reported to be preparing to make the most important statement in human history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, officially announcing first contact with aliens that had already occurred.
Whistleblower David Grusch continues advising congressional caucuses on UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 11%4%
David Grusch, a former US Air Force intelligence officer and prominent whistleblower, maintained his advisory role to congressional groups in early 2026, reinforcing legislative efforts for disclosure. This activity contributed to a temporary price increase from 7% to 11% for the December 31 outcome, reflecting renewed market interest.
Reports claim US President to admit extraterrestrial contact in 2026
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Speculation arose from reports suggesting the US President would confirm first contact with aliens in 2026, briefly boosting market prices and reflecting heightened public expectations despite no official statement yet.
Claims Surface That US President Will Confirm Alien Existence in 2026
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Reports from former intelligence officers and media sources claimed the US President was briefed on alien existence and hybrids, fueling renewed market interest though no official confirmation was made.
US President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 9%1%
Reports emerged that President Donald Trump was preparing to make a historic announcement confirming first contact with extraterrestrial civilizations. This fueled market optimism about official confirmation, driving prices higher.
Announcement expected from Trump on historic extraterrestrial statement
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Reports emerged that President Trump was preparing to make a significant statement regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling speculation and market interest about a possible official confirmation before the end of 2026.
Reports that President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee reported that President Trump would make the most important statement in history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling speculation and a market price increase in mid-January 2026.
Reports of President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrial contact
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Media reports and documentary filmmaker claims suggested President Trump would announce first contact with alien civilizations, raising market speculation and causing a price uptick. However, no official confirmation was made during the window.
Reports that President Trump prepares historic statement confirming extraterrestrial contact
December 31 rises to 12%2%
Multiple sources reported that President Trump was preparing to officially announce first contact with extraterrestrial civilizations, including forensic verification of alien technology. This speculation caused a temporary price spike reflecting increased market optimism for confirmation.
Donald Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Reports surfaced that former President Donald Trump was preparing to make the most important statement in human history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, including confirming first contact, which heightened market speculation and caused a price increase.
Renewed political pressure and whistleblower activity sustain disclosure speculation
December 31 rises to 11%4%
In mid-January 2026, ongoing whistleblower testimonies and legislative efforts, including the UAP Disclosure Act amendments, maintained market interest and price increases despite no official confirmation, reflecting sustained political momentum for disclosure.
US to make important historical statement on extraterrestrials, reports say
December 31 rises to 9%1%
Russian news outlet Izvestia cited the Daily Star and filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee reporting that Trump is preparing a major statement on extraterrestrial civilizations, reinforcing market optimism for disclosure.
Reports that President Trump plans historic announcement on extraterrestrial contact
December 31 rises to 8%1%
Media reports cited filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee stating that President Trump is preparing to announce first contact with aliens, fueling market speculation about official confirmation by year-end. However, no official statement was made during the analysis window.
Media report Trump preparing historic statement on alien contact
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
On January 16, 2026, multiple media outlets reported that Donald Trump was preparing a statement to announce first contact with aliens, expected to occur during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This renewed market interest, pushing probabilities back up to around 10-12%.
Whistleblower and political pressure intensify calls for UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Reports in early 2026 highlighted increasing whistleblower activity and political efforts, including from figures like David Grusch, pushing for transparency on UFOs and extraterrestrial technology. This renewed pressure caused a market price uptick from 7% to 10% around mid-January.
Reports Claim Trump is Preparing a Historic Statement on Extraterrestrial Contact
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Media reports citing documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claimed that President Donald Trump was preparing to make a historic statement officially announcing that first contact with aliens has already occurred.
Reports claim US President Trump plans historic alien disclosure speech
December 31 rises to 9%2%
A report cited filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claiming President Trump has drafted a speech to confirm humanity's first contact with aliens, fueling market speculation about imminent official confirmation.
Documentary Maker Claims Trump Is Preparing Historic Announcement on Extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Reports emerged citing documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claiming that President Donald Trump is preparing to make a major announcement regarding first contact with extraterrestrials.
Reports that Trump will make historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Media reported that President Trump was preparing to make the most important statement in history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, briefly boosting market interest though no confirmation followed.
Reports: President Trump Preparing Historic Statement Confirming Extraterrestrial Contact
December 31 rises to 10%3%
In mid-January 2026, reports surfaced that President Donald Trump was preparing to make the most important statement in history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, officially announcing first contact. This news sustained market interest but did not cause a major price spike.
Speculation grows that Trump may announce first contact with aliens at 2026 World Cup
December 31 rises to 13%4%
Reports from documentary filmmakers and media suggested Trump planned a major announcement during the 2026 World Cup, fueling renewed market speculation and a modest price increase.
Reports claim President Trump to make historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee reported that former President Trump was preparing to announce first contact with aliens, fueling speculation and market interest in a potential official confirmation by the end of 2026.
Filmmaker Claims Trump Prepared Speech to Announce Alien Contact in Summer 2026
December 31 rises to 12%3%
British documentary maker Mark Christopher Lee claimed that Donald Trump has written a speech confirming first contact with aliens, scheduled for delivery in July 2026, causing a late-window price surge.
Reports emerge that President Trump plans historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On January 16, media reported that President Donald Trump was preparing to make the most important statement in history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, potentially confirming first contact. This news caused a notable price jump from 7% to 11% for the December 31 outcome, reflecting increased market optimism about official confirmation.
Filmmaker claims Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
Documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee reported that President Trump was preparing to make the most important statement in history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, raising market speculation. Despite this, no official confirmation occurred, and prices remained low around 10%.
Reports claim Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 14%4%
On January 16, media outlets reported that President Trump was preparing the most important statement in history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, increasing market optimism and pushing prices up to 11-14%.
Filmmaker claims President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee reported that President Trump was preparing to make a significant announcement about extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling market speculation and a price increase, though no official confirmation followed.
Insider claims US President to admit aliens exist on Earth in 2026
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Claims surfaced that the US President would confirm humanity's first contact with aliens in 2026, briefly boosting market prices as traders anticipated official confirmation.
Reports claim President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 dips to 9%1%
Documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee reported that President Trump was preparing to announce first contact with extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling market speculation and a temporary price increase. However, no official confirmation followed, leading to subsequent price declines.
Whistleblower activity and congressional pressure intensify for UFO disclosure in 2026
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Reports indicated a growing number of military and intelligence officials ready to testify publicly, alongside legislative efforts such as the UAP Disclosure Act amendments, increasing market speculation about imminent disclosure.
Pentagon official denies evidence of reverse-engineering extraterrestrial technology
December 31 dips to 7%4%
Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick stated the Pentagon has found no credible evidence supporting claims of reverse-engineering alien technology, tempering market optimism and causing a price dip.
Whistleblower David Grusch continues advising congressional caucuses on UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 10%2%
David Grusch, a former US Air Force intelligence officer and prominent whistleblower, maintained his advisory role to congressional groups, sustaining legislative momentum and public interest in UFO disclosure, which supported a modest price increase.
Whistleblower David Grusch advises congressional caucuses on UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 11%3%
David Grusch, a former US Air Force intelligence officer and prominent whistleblower, continued to provide testimony and advice to congressional groups, intensifying legislative efforts for UFO disclosure. This activity contributed to a temporary price increase as it signaled growing political momentum for potential confirmation.
Department of State pauses immigrant visa processing for 75 countries citing public charge concerns
The DOS announced a temporary pause on immigrant visa processing for nationals of 75 countries, which was unrelated to UFO disclosure and did not affect the market outcome.
US Congress and whistleblowers intensify push for UFO disclosure in 2026
December 31 rises to 9%1%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 mandated new briefings on UAP encounters since 2004 and reviews of over-classification, while whistleblowers like David Grusch advised congressional caucuses, increasing political pressure for disclosure. This legislative and whistleblower momentum raised market expectations for a December 31 confirmation.
President Trump hints at forthcoming statements on UFOs
December 31 rises to 10%2%
On January 14, President Trump made public remarks suggesting awareness of UFO-related information, which fueled speculation about an imminent disclosure. This contributed to a slight price increase from 8% to 10% for the December 31 outcome.
US Congress enacts National Defense Authorization Act mandating UAP briefings
December 31 rises to 9%2%
The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act requires new briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004 and calls for a review of classified material, intensifying legislative pressure for UFO disclosure. This legislative action increased market optimism about potential official confirmation by year-end.
Former Bank of England analyst warns of imminent US alien disclosure and financial risks
December 31 rises to 9%1%
Helen McCaw, a former senior analyst at the Bank of England, publicly urged preparations for a US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life, citing a multi-year declassification process underway. Her warnings about potential financial market volatility and collapse due to such a disclosure increased market optimism for a December 31 outcome.
Declassified UK files reveal military interest in UFO technology in 1990s
December 31 rises to 9%2%
British military intelligence files declassified in January 2026 showed attempts to acquire UFO technology, highlighting ongoing international government interest in extraterrestrial phenomena, indirectly supporting market optimism.
Whistleblower David Grusch continues advising congressional caucuses
December 31 rises to 11%3%
David Grusch, a former US Air Force intelligence officer and prominent whistleblower, continued to provide testimony and advice to congressional groups, maintaining political momentum for disclosure and supporting a price rise from 8% to 11% by mid-January 2026.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' fuels speculation of imminent UFO revelations
December 31 rises to 9%1%
The November 2025 documentary alleging an 80-year UFO cover-up gained renewed attention in mid-January, placing pressure on President Trump to declassify information, which increased market optimism for disclosure by year-end.
Study finds no evidence 3I/ATLAS is extraterrestrial technology
December 31 dips to 7%1%
Astronomers published a study finding no measurable signs of extraterrestrial technology in the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, countering some speculation about alien spacecraft. This scientific clarification likely tempered market enthusiasm for imminent alien confirmation.
Study finds no evidence of alien technology in interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 7%1%
A new study reported no measurable signs of extraterrestrial technology in the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS, dampening hopes for imminent confirmation and contributing to a market price decline to around 7-8%.
YouGov Poll Shows 47% of Americans Believe Aliens Have Visited Earth
A YouGov poll conducted in November 2025 found that 47% of Americans believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, up from 36% in 2012, reflecting growing public belief in extraterrestrial life.
NASA denies alien spacecraft claims regarding interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
NASA officials publicly refuted claims that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS was an alien spacecraft, reinforcing the absence of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life and contributing to market price stabilization.
NASA and astronomers find no evidence of extraterrestrial technology in interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
A study by astronomers and NASA officials concluded that the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is natural and shows no signs of alien technology, dampening hopes for imminent confirmation of extraterrestrial life and limiting market price gains.
NASA Officially Denies Alien Spaceship Claims Regarding 3I/ATLAS
NASA's public denial of alien spaceship claims regarding 3I/ATLAS reinforced skepticism and maintained low market prices for official confirmation of extraterrestrial life by the US government.
NASA study finds no evidence of extraterrestrial technology in interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 rises to 8%1%
NASA and astronomers publicly dismissed theories that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS was alien technology, reinforcing official skepticism and keeping market prices low in early 2026.
Astronomers find no signs of extraterrestrial technology in interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 rises to 8%1%
A study by astronomers using the Green Bank Telescope found no technosignatures from the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS, countering some public speculation about alien spacecraft and contributing to low market confidence in imminent confirmation.
NASA and scientists confirm 3I/ATLAS is not an alien spacecraft
December 31 rises to 8%1%
In early January 2026, further studies and official statements confirmed that 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet with no extraterrestrial technology detected. This reinforced the official stance and maintained market prices at a low level for confirmation by December 31.
NASA and Scientists Confirm Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS Is Not an Alien Spaceship
Astronomers and NASA officials released data and images confirming that the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet rather than alien technology, dampening immediate speculation.
DOJ opens criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
December 31 rises to 9%1%
A Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell raised concerns about political pressure on the central bank, leading some traders to anticipate a possible presidential statement on broader government transparency, including UFO disclosures, which lifted the December 31 contract.
Congressional mandates require Pentagon briefings on UAP incidents
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandated fresh briefings on UAP incidents since 2004 and reviews of classification practices, increasing expectations for disclosure but without definitive confirmation, causing a moderate price increase in the market.
US Congress passes NASA budget omitting Mars sample retrieval mission
December 31 rises to 8%1%
Congress approved a NASA budget that excluded plans to retrieve Martian rock samples potentially containing signs of extraterrestrial life, signaling delays in direct scientific confirmation but keeping the topic in public discourse. This event maintained cautious market optimism about future disclosures but did not directly confirm alien existence.
CIA refuses to confirm or deny records on mysterious interstellar object
December 31 rises to 9%2%
In early January 2026, the CIA responded to a Freedom of Information Act request by neither confirming nor denying records related to the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, fueling speculation about government secrecy on potential alien technology. This ambiguous stance maintained market uncertainty.
Trump to make “most important announcement in history” at World Cup opening
December 31 rises to 9%1%
On January 9, 2026 the Daily Mail reported that President Trump had hinted he would announce “the most important speech in human history” at the upcoming World Cup opening, a claim interpreted by market participants as a fresh indication that a UFO disclosure could be imminent, nudging the price back up to around 9 % Yes.
Fiscal year 2026 NDAA mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP incidents since 2004
December 31 rises to 8%1%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 was updated to require the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts dating back to 2004 and to review whether crucial material has been excessively classified.
Study Casts Doubt on Europa's Potential for Extraterrestrial Life
A new scientific study suggested that Jupiter's moon Europa may not have conditions suitable for life, possibly dampening market enthusiasm and contributing to a price decline in early January 2026.
Pentagon official denies credible evidence of alien technology or reverse engineering
December 31 dips to 6%1%
In early January 2026, Pentagon officials publicly stated no verifiable information supports claims of possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials, dampening market enthusiasm and contributing to a price decline to 6-8%.
President Trump Withdraws U.S. from International Organizations
December 31 rises to 8%1%
President Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from certain international organizations, a significant political move unrelated to alien confirmation but occurring during the market's low price period around 7-8%. This event did not affect the market's outlook on alien confirmation.
Speculation grows on Trump’s planned UFO disclosure in 2026 amid rising public pressure
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Reports and insider speculation emerged that former President Trump intended to reveal significant information about extraterrestrials in 2026, including a possible announcement during the World Cup, which contributed to a slight uptick in market probability for disclosure by year-end.
CIA neither confirms nor denies investigations into interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
In response to a November 2025 FOIA request, the CIA released a statement saying it could 'neither deny nor confirm the existence or nonexistence of records' regarding the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, adding to UFO disclosure speculation.
CIA issues Glomar response on 3I/ATLAS records, fueling UFO disclosure speculation
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The CIA responded to a November 2025 FOIA request with a classic “Glomar response,” neither confirming nor denying the existence of records on the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS. The ambiguous stance revived speculation that the government might be hiding extraterrestrial data, prompting a fresh uptick in the market to around 10 % “Yes.”
CIA Issues Glomar Response to FOIA Request Regarding Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS
The CIA refused to confirm or deny the existence of records regarding the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, fueling conspiracy theories and keeping the disclosure debate highly active in early January.
No official confirmation of extraterrestrial life despite ongoing speculation
December 31 dips to 6%1%
By early January 2026, no definitive statements or disclosures about extraterrestrial life were made by the US government, leading to a decline in market prices to around 6-8%. Skeptical reports and lack of evidence tempered market optimism.
NASA advances mission to search for life beyond Earth
NASA announced progress on the Habitable Worlds Observatory, a space telescope designed to image Earth-like planets, reflecting ongoing scientific efforts to find extraterrestrial life but not constituting official US government confirmation, thus having limited market impact.
Pentagon censors Senator Mark Kelly over anti‑war video
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth formally censured Senator Kelly for a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, reigniting debate over government transparency and raising the chance of an official alien‑existence statement, which lifted prices in mid‑January.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files sparking public debate
December 31 rises to 7%1%
The Department of Defense disclosed additional declassified UFO documents, highlighting unexplained sightings and prompting media coverage that revived speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial phenomena, nudging the December 31 outcome higher.
No definitive government confirmation of extraterrestrial life by early January
December 31 dips to 6%2%
Despite ongoing speculation and legislative activity, no official statement confirming extraterrestrial life was made, leading to a decline in market price to 6% for the December 31 outcome.
US conducts large-scale strike in Venezuela amid geopolitical tensions
December 31 dips to 7%3%
The US military action in Venezuela shifted attention to geopolitical and military issues, diverting focus from UFO disclosure and coinciding with a price drop to 7%, reflecting reduced market optimism for imminent confirmation.
US forces reportedly capture Venezuelan leader Maduro in large-scale strike
December 31 dips to 6%4%
This significant geopolitical event distracted attention from alien disclosure topics and coincided with a market price drop to 6%, reflecting reduced optimism about imminent confirmation.
US forces detain Venezuelan President Maduro in unprecedented operation
December 31 dips to 7%3%
On January 3, 2026, US forces conducted a high-profile operation detaining Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This major geopolitical event likely distracted attention from alien confirmation news, contributing to a market price decline from 10% to 7%.
U.S. Strike Captures Venezuelan President Maduro
December 31 rises to 8%1%
President Trump announced a U.S. operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, shifting public and market attention away from UFO/ET topics.
Trump announces capture of Venezuelan President Maduro amid military action
December 31 dips to 7%3%
President Trump announced the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro following US military operations. While unrelated to alien confirmation, this event coincided with a market price drop, reflecting shifting focus away from UFO speculation.
NASA Denies Extraterrestrial Technology in 3I/ATLAS Comet Observation
NASA's Acting Administrator Sean Duffy, in a social media exchange with Kim Kardashian, denied that 3I/ATLAS was an extraterrestrial spacecraft, providing a clear statement that contradicted earlier speculation and contributed to the market price dropping to 7%.
Top US officials including Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State brief key lawmakers on UAPs
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth briefed the 'Gang of Eight' lawmakers on UAP matters, indicating high-level government engagement and sustaining market interest in disclosure possibilities.
President Trump announces US strikes in Venezuela, no alien confirmation
December 31 dips to 7%3%
President Trump's announcement of military action in Venezuela shifted attention away from alien disclosure speculation, contributing to a market price decline from 10% to 7% for the December 31 outcome, reflecting reduced near-term optimism for confirmation.
President Trump announces capture of Venezuelan leader Maduro
This major military event dominated news in early January 2026 but was unrelated to alien confirmation, coinciding with a market price trough, reflecting shifting trader focus away from UFO disclosure.
US Military Operation 'Absolute Resolve' Captures Venezuelan President Maduro
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine announced a major military operation capturing Venezuela's president, reflecting heightened US military focus but unrelated to alien confirmation, coinciding with market price stabilization at low levels.
US military conducts bombing campaign in Venezuela
December 31 dips to 7%3%
On January 3, 2026, the US military bombed Venezuela following its designation as a foreign terrorist organization. This major geopolitical event likely distracted attention from UFO disclosures, contributing to a drop in market prices for alien confirmation.
US captures Venezuelan President Maduro in military operation
December 31 dips to 7%2%
The US military conducted a high-profile operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, publicly discussing the event. While unrelated to alien confirmation, this major geopolitical event coincided with a dip in market prices, reflecting shifting focus away from UFO disclosures.
US military operation captures Venezuelan leader Maduro
December 31 dips to 7%3%
On January 3, 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela capturing President Nicolas Maduro. This major geopolitical event dominated news cycles and likely distracted attention from UFO disclosure speculation, contributing to a decline in market prices for alien confirmation.
Venezuelan president arrives in New York amid state of emergency declaration
December 31 dips to 6%1%
On January 3, 2026, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro arrived in New York amid a declared state of emergency, an unrelated geopolitical event that did not affect the alien confirmation market, which remained stable at around 6-8%.
Astronomers find no technosignatures from interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 6%2%
A study using the Green Bank Telescope found no signs of extraterrestrial technology from comet 3I/ATLAS, reinforcing skepticism and contributing to a market price low point around early January.
Chairman of Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine comments on military operation in Venezuela
December 31 dips to 7%3%
On January 3, 2026, General Dan Caine made public remarks on a military operation in Venezuela, unrelated to extraterrestrial life, coinciding with a market price drop, reflecting no new information on alien confirmation.
Scientific updates on extraterrestrial life research published without government confirmation
December 31 dips to 6%1%
Scientific publications and research updates on extraterrestrial life and interstellar molecules were released, but no official US government confirmation of alien existence was made, leading to a slight market price decline.
Vatican denies possessing evidence of alien visitation amid renewed speculation
Media reports revived claims that the Vatican might be withholding evidence of extraterrestrial visitation, but Vatican officials publicly denied these claims, which likely tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price declines.
NASA publishes peer-reviewed findings of possible biosignatures on Mars
NASA released peer-reviewed research indicating potential biosignatures on Mars, suggesting past extraterrestrial life. While not definitive proof of alien life, this scientific development contributed to ongoing interest and cautious optimism in the market.
U.S. labor report shows strong hiring, shifting focus away from UFO speculation
The Labor Department reported a surprising gain of 130,000 jobs, drawing media attention to economic news and reducing speculative interest in the alien‑confirmation market, contributing to the price staying low at 7%.
Whistleblower David Grusch Advocates for Congressional UAP Review
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Former US Air Force intelligence officer David Grusch continues to advise congressional caucuses into 2026, pushing for disclosure of UAP information and claims of covert programs to recover crashed extraterrestrial crafts.
Implementation of 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings
December 31 dips to 7%3%
The Act required fresh briefings on UAP encounters since 2004 and reviews of classified material, intensifying legislative pressure for disclosure but without immediate confirmation, leading to price stabilization around 7-10%.
No official US confirmation of extraterrestrial life by year-end
As 2025 ended and 2026 began, no US President, Cabinet member, or federal agency definitively confirmed the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology, leading to a market price decline to 7-8%.
Congressional Pressure Mounts for UFO Disclosure in 2026
December 31 rises to 9%2%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 mandates new UAP briefings and a review of classified material, intensifying pressure for potential US government disclosure of UFO information.
Former Bank of England Analyst Warns of US Alien Disclosure Impact
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Helen McCaw, former Bank of England analyst, stated the US government appears to be partway through a multi-year process to declassify and disclose information on technologically advanced non-human intelligence behind UAPs.
DHS final rule takes effect clarifying alien public health eligibility
December 31 dips to 8%3%
DHS final rule clarifying when aliens posing public health risks are ineligible for asylum and revised credible fear screening regulations, scheduled to take effect December 31, 2025.
White House press secretary reiterates no official confirmation of alien life
December 31 dips to 7%2%
At a daily briefing, the White House press secretary stated that the administration had no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial existence, dampening hopes of a near‑term confirmation and pushing the market’s probability down to 7%.
NASA Administrator denies alien origin of 3I/ATLAS comet
NASA Acting Administrator Sean Duffy publicly stated there is no evidence of alien technology in the 3I/ATLAS comet, countering claims it was an extraterrestrial spacecraft, which may have contributed to market volatility.
U.S. Congress Passes NASA Budget Excluding Mars Sample Retrieval
The NASA budget passed by Congress omitted any plan to retrieve Perseverance Rover samples, including rocks that may contain signs of extraterrestrial life, cooling market optimism about alien discovery prospects.
No official US government confirmation of alien existence by year-end
December 31 dips to 7%2%
Despite speculation and market optimism, no President, Cabinet member, or federal agency definitively confirmed extraterrestrial life by December 31, 2025, causing market prices to drop back to 7%.
Congress passes National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026
The NDAA 2026 mandates the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts since 2004 and review over-classification of related data, increasing pressure for U.S. UFO disclosure.
Pentagon Press Operations office closed for New Year holiday
December 31 dips to 7%2%
The Pentagon Press Operations office was closed from December 31, 2025, to January 4, 2026, limiting official communications and possibly contributing to a price drop from 9% to 7% on December 31 and early January.
Congressman announces potential major UAP whistleblower testimony
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Congressman Eric Burlison revealed that a significant new whistleblower may soon testify about UAPs, intensifying legislative and public pressure for disclosure and briefly boosting market prices.
Market price drops as no official alien confirmation occurs by year-end
December 31 dips to 7%3%
By December 31, 2025, despite high expectations and speculation, no official confirmation of extraterrestrial life was made by the US government or President Trump, causing market prices to fall sharply from 10% to 7%.
Congressman announces major whistleblower testimony forthcoming on UAPs
December 31 rises to 12%2%
Congressman Eric Burlison revealed that a significant new whistleblower was expected to testify soon, increasing expectations for potential disclosures and contributing to market optimism about confirmation by year-end 2026.
UFO disclosure betting market shows 98% odds for Trump declassification
December 31 dips to 7%3%
Polymarket maintained 98% odds for the Trump administration declassifying UFO files by the end of 2025, reflecting sustained betting activity and market confidence in a disclosure.
ICE Ends 2025 With More Arrests of Worst of Worst Criminal Illegal Aliens
December 31 dips to 7%3%
ICE conducted arrests of criminal illegal aliens, including child rapists and drug traffickers, which may have contributed to the market's volatility as the administration focused on immigration enforcement.
ICE Arrests Criminal Illegal Aliens Including Child Rapists and Drug Traffickers
December 31 dips to 9%1%
ICE conducted a series of arrests targeting the worst criminal illegal aliens, including child rapists and drug traffickers, which may have been used to distract from or downplay UAP-related discussions.
UFO whistleblower claims Trump was fully briefed on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 8%1%
David Grusch, a UFO whistleblower, stated that President Trump had been fully briefed on secret UFO programs and extraterrestrial information, fueling speculation but lacking official confirmation, resulting in minor market fluctuations.
ICE announces arrests of criminal illegal aliens amid immigration crackdown
December 31 dips to 7%3%
The Department of Homeland Security announced arrests of criminal illegal aliens as part of a broader immigration enforcement campaign. This event is unrelated to extraterrestrial confirmation and had no impact on the market prices for alien confirmation.
ICE announces increased arrests of criminal illegal aliens
On December 30, 2025, ICE publicized arrests of criminal illegal aliens, focusing on national security and immigration enforcement. This event was unrelated to extraterrestrial confirmation and had no direct impact on the market.
U.S. strikes drug boat loading facility in Venezuela, Trump says
President Trump announced U.S. land operations against drug boat loading facilities in Venezuela, a significant diplomatic and military escalation that diverted attention from UFO/aliens discussions.
John E. Mack podcast episode released on UFO and alien hybrid claims
December 31 dips to 10%3%
A podcast episode featuring Pulitzer Prize-winning psychiatrist John E. Mack, a prominent advocate for UFO and alien abduction theories, was released, reinforcing the cultural momentum around extraterrestrial life.
U.S. strikes drug boat loading facility in Venezuela, Trump says
December 31 dips to 9%1%
The U.S. conducted land operations in Venezuela targeting drug operations, marking a significant military action that may have diverted attention from space/aliens topics.
NASA confirms Terra satellite will continue SAGE III/ISS mission through 2026
NASA granted approval to extend the SAGE III/ISS mission through at least 2026, continuing to provide atmospheric data, which supports NASA's ongoing Earth and space science missions.
Congress Passes NASA Budget Omitting Martian Sample Return Mission
December 31 dips to 9%1%
Congress passed a NASA budget excluding plans to retrieve Martian rocks that may contain signs of extraterrestrial life, dampening hopes for imminent official confirmation and causing market decline.
Release of documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' alleging government UFO cover-up
December 31 dips to 10%2%
The documentary featuring 34 current and former US government and military officials alleging a decades-long cover-up increased public and congressional pressure for disclosure, supporting market optimism. This contributed to sustained interest but no immediate confirmation, with prices stabilizing around 10%.
Record-breaking year for UAP sightings reported by pilots and advocacy groups
By late December 2025, Americans for Safe Aerospace reported over 700 UAP sightings, more than double the previous year, with pilots testifying before Congress about unexplained encounters. This sustained public and market attention but did not lead to official confirmation, keeping prices stable around 10-11%.
From A.I. to Chips, Big Tech Is Getting What It Wants From Trump
The New York Times reported the president backed policies allowing the tech industry to grow, which may have indirectly influenced public interest in U.S. government transparency on UFOs.
Military Servicemen Reveal More UFO Details in New Documentary
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' featured military servicemen discussing extraterrestrial encounters and government hearings, keeping public and market attention on the possibility of official alien confirmation.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' exposes alleged decades-long UFO cover-up
December 31 rises to 11%1%
A documentary featuring government insiders claimed an 80-year cover-up of UFOs and alien technology, renewing public and market interest in potential official confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
New documentary “The Age of Disclosure” alleges U.S. recovered alien craft
December 31 jumps to 21%7%
The documentary “The Age of Disclosure” premiered, featuring former officials (including Secretary of State Marco Rubio) claiming the U.S. possesses recovered alien spacecraft. The film’s wide media buzz and a Capitol Hill screening sparked optimism that an official statement might follow, pushing the Yes probability to a peak of 21 % on Dec 7.
New Doc 'The Age of Disclosure' Releases Military Servicemen UFO Testimony
A documentary released testimony from military servicemen about UFO encounters, reigniting public and market interest in extraterrestrial disclosures.
Military servicemen expose UFO details in 'The Age of Disclosure' follow-up
December 31 dips to 10%1%
Additional testimonies from high-ranking military officials about ongoing UAP encounters and secret programs increased public and congressional pressure for disclosure, sustaining market interest in a potential official confirmation.
Further details on extraterrestrial encounters discussed in 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary
Additional exposure from the documentary and related government hearings kept public and political attention on alien disclosure, maintaining market interest and price support.
In New Doc 'The Age of Disclosure,' Military Servicemen Expose More Details About UFOs at Vandenberg
December 31 dips to 10%3%
A documentary released in 2025 discussed military servicemen's accounts of UFO encounters at Vandenberg Air Force Base, reigniting public and media interest in U.S. government UFO disclosures.
NASA Detects Atmospheric Clues of Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 rises to 14%2%
A NASA article reported the James Webb Space Telescope detecting atmospheric compositions on exoplanets and Perseverance rover analyzing Martian rock cores, advancing the search for alien life.
NASA highlights ongoing search for extraterrestrial life with new space observations
NASA's advanced missions and telescopes provided new data on exoplanets and planetary atmospheres, fueling scientific interest but not constituting official confirmation. This maintained moderate market interest without sharp price changes.
NASA continues search for extraterrestrial life with new clues and missions
NASA's ongoing efforts to uncover signs of life beyond Earth, including new scientific findings and missions, maintained public interest but did not produce official confirmation, keeping market prices stable at low levels.
NASA Releases New Clues in Search for Extraterrestrial Life
NASA highlighted new discoveries including James Webb Space Telescope detections of exoplanet atmospheric compositions and Perseverance rover analyses of Martian rock cores, advancing the search for alien life. This positive scientific momentum may have supported market optimism.
NASA announces advanced search for extraterrestrial life with new technology
December 31 rises to 12%1%
NASA highlighted its ongoing efforts using advanced instruments like the James Webb Space Telescope and Perseverance rover to detect biosignatures on other planets. While this scientific progress raised hopes, no definitive evidence was presented, keeping market prices stable around 10-12%.
NASA announces new clues to extraterrestrial life
December 31 drops to 7%5%
NASA reported that the James Webb Space Telescope is detecting atmospheric compositions of exoplanets dozens of light-years away, while Perseverance rover analyzes Martian rock cores, advancing the search for alien life.
Scientists publish research on historic UFO sightings near nuclear sites
December 31 dips to 11%1%
A research paper published in October 2025 revealed transient star-like flashes in old photographs near nuclear testing sites, renewing public and expert interest in UFO phenomena. This contributed to sustained market interest but no definitive confirmation.
NASA Highlights New Clues in Search for Extraterrestrial Life
NASA published information about redefining the search for alien life using advanced technology, which kept public and market attention on the possibility of official confirmation by the US government.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the files did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to a moderate increase in market price for the December 31 outcome.
NASA reports new clues of extraterrestrial life from space missions
December 31 rises to 11%1%
On December 27, 2025, NASA highlighted advances in detecting atmospheric biosignatures on exoplanets and ongoing analysis of Mars and Venus data, fueling public interest but not official confirmation, causing minor market optimism.
Federal request for information on accelerating American scientific enterprise
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Science and Technology Policy Office issued a notice inviting comments on accelerating American scientific enterprise, reflecting increased government focus on science and technology, including space research. This contributed to sustained market interest and a price rise to 12%.
Federal Register requests public comments on accelerating American scientific enterprise
December 31 dips to 10%1%
The Office of Science and Technology Policy issued a request for information to accelerate scientific progress, reflecting broader government interest in advancing space and related research. While not directly about aliens, this indicated a supportive environment for scientific inquiry into phenomena including UAP.
UFO Whistleblower David Grusch Confirms Trump Fully Briefed on UAPs
UFO whistleblower David Grusch stated in an interview that President Trump was fully briefed on UAPs, reinforcing speculation that the administration had access to U.S. government knowledge about extraterrestrial technology.
Navy publishes investigation findings from USS Harry S. Truman deployment
December 31 dips to 10%2%
The Navy released the investigative report on four incidents involving the USS Harry S. Truman’s 2024‑25 deployment. While unrelated to extraterrestrials, the release kept UAP topics in the news cycle and coincided with a modest decline in the Yes probability (from 12 % on Dec 22 to 10 % on Dec 24).
Viral pilot report of UFO near jet prompts aviation safety discussions
A private pilot's report of a hovering unidentified object near a jet went viral, sparking media coverage and discussions on structured UAP reporting and aviation safety, which kept public attention on the UAP issue but did not confirm alien existence.
Pilot reports UFO near jet, sparking viral ATC exchange
December 31 rises to 12%1%
A December 23, 2025 report of a pilot sighting a UFO near a jet and a humorous air traffic control exchange went viral, increasing public fascination with UAPs but not constituting official confirmation. This event contributed to minor market fluctuations but no lasting price change.
UFO Researchers Acknowledge Bottleneck in 2025 Disclosure Efforts
December 31 dips to 10%1%
As 2025 drew to a close, researchers and experts noted that despite whistleblowers and hearings, a bottleneck prevented definitive answers, cooling down immediate market expectations.
President Trump Signs Executive Order on Ensuring American Space Superiority
The executive order focused on space superiority and commercial space economy, reinforcing U.S. space policy commitments and potentially influencing market sentiment around space-related announcements.
Pilot reports UFO hovering beside jet, sparking viral attention
December 31 rises to 13%1%
A viral pilot report of a hovering silver cylinder UFO near a jet over Rhode Island increased public curiosity and media coverage, supporting ongoing market interest in official alien confirmation.
Reports predict US UFO evidence release in 2026 amid mounting pressure
December 31 dips to 10%1%
Media reports highlighted increasing whistleblower activity, political pressure, and legislative momentum pushing for disclosure of UFO evidence in 2026. The November 2025 documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' intensified public and political focus, raising market expectations for official confirmation.
Astronomers find no technosignatures from interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 11%1%
On December 19, 2025, astronomers using the Green Bank Telescope observed 3I/ATLAS at its closest approach to Earth and found no signs of extraterrestrial technology. NASA officials reiterated the comet's natural origin, dampening speculation and causing a slight market decline.
Astronomers find no evidence of extraterrestrial technology in 3I/ATLAS comet observations
December 31 dips to 10%3%
An international team using the Green Bank Telescope observed the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS and found no technosignatures, dampening speculation about alien spacecraft and contributing to a price decline in the market.
US government signs National Defense Authorization Act for 2026
December 31 dips to 10%2%
President Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act, which included no mention of extraterrestrial confirmation, leading to a slight market price decline as no new alien-related disclosures were made.
Astronomers find no signs of extraterrestrial technology in 3I/ATLAS observations
December 31 dips to 7%4%
Using the Green Bank Telescope, astronomers recorded no technosignatures from 3I/ATLAS during its closest approach to Earth, reinforcing the scientific consensus that it is a natural comet and reducing market confidence.
NASA Observes 3I/ATLAS Closest to Earth, Finds No Technosignatures
NASA's observations using the Green Bank Telescope recorded no technosignatures in the form of radio emissions from 3I/ATLAS as it came closest to Earth. This further undermines claims of alien technology presence.
Breakthrough Listen Observes 3I/ATLAS, Finds No Technosignatures
December 31 drops to 10%11%
Using the Green Bank Telescope, astronomers from Breakthrough Listen observed the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS on December 19, 2025, and recorded no radio emissions indicating extraterrestrial technology.
NASA Observations Find No Evidence of Extraterrestrial Technology in 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 11%1%
NASA and astronomers reported no technosignatures from the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, countering alien spaceship theories and reducing market optimism about imminent official confirmation.
NASA confirms no evidence of extraterrestrial technology in 3I/ATLAS comet
December 31 dips to 11%1%
NASA and astronomers announced no technosignatures were detected from the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS, dampening hopes for imminent official confirmation of alien technology and contributing to a market price decline.
NASA Acting Administrator Sean Duffy denies alien origin of 3I/ATLAS comet, stating 'No aliens'
December 31 dips to 11%1%
NASA leadership publicly dismissed the theory that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS was extraterrestrial, which may have contributed to market volatility as the debate over alien technology intensified.
President Signs National Defense Authorization Act Including UAP Provisions
December 31 dips to 11%1%
President Trump signed the 2026 NDAA, which included mandates for increased reporting on UAPs. This reinforced congressional oversight and transparency efforts, maintaining market interest though prices slightly declined afterward.
President Trump prepares to announce extraterrestrial life briefing
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Sources reported that President Trump was preparing to announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing on humanity's place in the universe, triggering a major market surge.
Presidential proclamation reinstates travel restrictions for national security
December 31 dips to 10%1%
President Trump signed Proclamation 10949 effective January 1, 2026, reinstating travel restrictions to protect national security. While unrelated to alien confirmation, this official action coincided with a market price decline from 11% to 10%, reflecting shifting investor focus away from extraterrestrial disclosure rumors.
Scientists confirm 3I/ATLAS comet is not alien technology
December 31 dips to 7%4%
Astronomers and NASA officials confirmed that the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet with no signs of alien technology, dampening hopes for extraterrestrial confirmation and causing market prices to decline.
President Trump signs the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act
December 31 dips to 12%2%
The NDAA included provisions mandating the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts since 2004, review over-classification of related data, and streamline reporting. This legislative action increased pressure for transparency and disclosure of UFO-related information.
Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 Signed into Law
The signing of the Intelligence Authorization Act on December 18, 2025, included provisions for intelligence community efficiency but did not mention extraterrestrial life, maintaining market skepticism and stable prices around 11%.
President issues statement on National Defense Authorization Act with no alien disclosure
December 31 drops to 7%6%
The President signed the National Defense Authorization Act and emphasized withholding information for national security, which tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to a price decline from the December peak.
President Trump issues Executive Order on Ensuring American Space Superiority
President Trump signed an executive order focusing on space policy and technological advancements, including directives to NASA and Commerce to reform space acquisition processes. While this reinforced government interest in space, it did not include any confirmation of extraterrestrial life, maintaining market skepticism.
President signs National Defense Authorization Act mandating new UFO briefings
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required new briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004 and reviews of classified material, increasing expectations of official disclosure and supporting market optimism.
President Trump signs Executive Order on Ensuring American Space Superiority
President Trump issued an Executive Order aiming to enhance US leadership in space exploration and technology. While this increased focus on space policy raised public interest, it did not include any confirmation of extraterrestrial life, thus having limited impact on the market.
President Trump signs 'Ensuring American Space Superiority' executive order
December 31 rises to 11%3%
President Trump issued an executive order to enhance US leadership in space, directing NASA and Commerce to reform acquisition processes and emphasizing commercial and security priorities. While this increased focus on space policy, it did not include any confirmation of extraterrestrial life, keeping market prices stable.
President Trump signs National Defense Authorization Act with UAP briefing mandates
The 2026 NDAA mandated new briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004 and reviews of classified material, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency on UFOs, supporting market optimism.
Harvard scientist Avi Loeb asserts interstellar object 3I/ATLAS may be alien technology
December 31 dips to 11%1%
A prominent astrophysicist publicly stated his belief that a mysterious interstellar object could be alien technology, fueling public and scientific discourse on extraterrestrial life. This contributed to sustained market interest though no official confirmation was made.
Executive order on ensuring American space superiority issued
December 31 dips to 11%1%
This order focused on missile defense and space technology development, reflecting increased government attention to space-related issues but did not include alien confirmation, thus having limited market impact.
President Trump Signs FY 2026 NDAA Into Law with UAP Provisions
President Trump officially signed the defense bill containing the UAP transparency and reporting mandates, cementing the legislative timeline for 2026.
Trump signs executive order on ensuring American space superiority
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump signed an executive order aimed at enhancing US leadership in space, which increased public and market attention on space-related topics but did not include any confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a minor price rise followed by stabilization.
Trump signs executive order emphasizing American space dominance
December 31 dips to 10%2%
President Trump issued an executive order titled 'Ensuring American Space Superiority,' signaling a strong focus on space policy but without direct confirmation of extraterrestrial life, which tempered market enthusiasm.
Trump signs FY‑2026 NDAA with UAP‑briefing mandate
December 31 rises to 14%3%
President Trump signed the FY‑2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which contains new provisions ordering the Pentagon’s All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP incidents and review over‑classification. The legislative jump was widely reported and pushed the market higher, as traders saw a concrete mechanism that could force a public UFO disclosure before year‑end.
President Trump delivers national address focusing on immigration and national security
December 31 dips to 11%1%
President Trump's December 17, 2025 address focused on immigration and national security issues without mentioning extraterrestrial life or UAPs, which did not affect the market's outlook on alien confirmation.
President Trump delivers prime-time address focusing on domestic issues, no alien confirmation
December 31 drops to 7%5%
President Trump's national address focused on immigration and domestic policy without mentioning extraterrestrial life, leading to a decline in market prices from 12% to 7% as hopes for imminent confirmation faded.
NASA Rejects Alien Theory for Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 drops to 7%5%
NASA officials, including Acting Administrator Sean Duffy and Associate Administrator Nicola Fox, rejected the idea that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS was extraterrestrial technology, stating there were no signs of alien life.
Universal Pictures releases teaser for alien disclosure film 'Disclosure Day'
On December 16, 2025, Universal Pictures released the first teaser trailer for 'Disclosure Day,' a film exploring humanity's reaction to confirmed extraterrestrial life. This media event heightened public interest and speculation about real-world alien confirmation, influencing market prices.
President Trump issues proclamation expanding travel restrictions
December 31 dips to 12%1%
While unrelated directly to UFO disclosure, this significant policy action by President Trump around mid-December 2025 coincided with market fluctuations, but had limited impact on the alien confirmation market.
New Whistleblower Emerges as Congress Prepares for 2026 Disclosure Push
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Representative Eric Burlison revealed a new whistleblower was working with the UAP Caucus, maintaining elevated interest in potential government disclosures.
Steven Spielberg's UFO movie 'Disclosure Day' teaser released
December 31 dips to 9%1%
Universal Pictures released the first teaser trailer for 'Disclosure Day,' a sci-fi film about extraterrestrial life, sparking public interest and media speculation about alien disclosure, which may have influenced minor market fluctuations.
Universal Pictures Releases Teaser Trailer for Steven Spielberg's 'Disclosure Day'
The teaser trailer for Steven Spielberg's UFO movie 'Disclosure Day' was released, which explores the premise of humanity learning extraterrestrial life is real, adding pop culture momentum to the market.
White House issues proclamation expanding travel restrictions
December 31 dips to 10%2%
The White House issued a proclamation expanding travel restrictions for certain countries, unrelated to extraterrestrial disclosure, coinciding with a slight market price decline, reflecting no direct impact on the alien confirmation market.
Trump issues expanded travel ban restricting entry to 39 countries
December 31 dips to 11%1%
President Trump issued a proclamation restricting entry to the United States by nationals of 39 countries plus PA-issued travel documents, expanding on the June 2025 travel ban.
President Trump issues expanded travel ban effective January 1, 2026
On December 16, 2025, President Trump issued a proclamation expanding travel bans on nationals from 39 countries, effective January 1, 2026. While unrelated directly to alien confirmation, this heightened national security focus may have influenced market sentiment about government transparency and disclosures.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates new briefings on UAP incidents since 2004
December 31 rises to 13%3%
The 2026 NDAA required fresh briefings to Congress on UAP encounters and a review of classification practices, increasing legislative pressure for transparency. This legislative action reinforced market speculation about potential disclosures, supporting price stability around 10-13%.
Universal Pictures Drops Teaser Trailer for Steven Spielberg's UFO Movie
June 30 rises to 12%1%
Universal Pictures released the first official teaser trailer for Steven Spielberg's new UFO movie 'Disclosure Day,' which explores what happens when humanity learns extraterrestrial life is real, fueling speculation about a potential 2026 disclosure.
Former Pentagon official Luis Elizondo claims government withholding UAP data
Elizondo, featured in 'The Age of Disclosure,' publicly asserted that the government is withholding information on UAPs, reinforcing narratives of secrecy and fueling speculation about imminent disclosure, impacting market sentiment.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' released, alleging decades-long alien cover-up
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The release of the documentary featuring former government officials claiming a long-standing cover-up of alien existence sparked public debate and increased market interest, though official confirmation remained absent.
FY 2026 NDAA mandates expanded Pentagon briefings on UAP intercepts since 2004
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The National Defense Authorization Act for 2026 included provisions requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide detailed briefings to Congress on UAP incidents dating back to 2004, signaling increased governmental transparency and legislative pressure for disclosure.
Odds of Trump declassifying UFO files before end of 2025 skyrocket
December 31 jumps to 21%9%
Reports of insider knowledge and whistleblower support led to a betting frenzy on Polymarket, with over $7 million wagered, pushing odds to near 98% for disclosure by December 31.
FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates expanded Pentagon UAP briefings
The NDAA required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) to provide expanded briefings to Congress on UAP intercepts since 2004, streamline reporting, and review classification guides. This legislative action increased transparency and congressional oversight, boosting market confidence in potential disclosure.
Release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary claims government cover-up of aliens
December 31 rises to 16%3%
The November 21, 2025 release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary featuring former officials claiming proof of extraterrestrial life intensified public interest and speculation, contributing to market price volatility in early December. However, the film's claims were not official government confirmation.
President Trump signs Executive Order on National AI Policy Framework
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump signed an executive order to establish a uniform federal AI policy, reflecting the administration's focus on science and technology leadership. While not directly about aliens, this event coincided with market fluctuations and indicated government engagement with advanced technologies.
Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates Pentagon UAP briefings
The NDAA required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts since 2004 and review classification policies, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency and fueling market optimism for disclosure.
FY 2026 NDAA includes new UAP briefing requirements for the Pentagon
December 31 dips to 11%1%
The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act added three UAP‑related provisions, requiring the Pentagon’s All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on all UAP intercepts. Analysts interpreted the move as a sign‑that the government is institutionalising disclosure, stabilising the market after the prior spike, with the Yes price slipping from 12 % (Dec 8) to 11 % (Dec 16).
Congress includes UAP-related provisions in 2026 defense bill
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included directives for the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to report on UAP intercepts, fueling speculation about government transparency on extraterrestrial phenomena and supporting market optimism.
Congress includes UAP transparency and briefing mandates in 2026 National Defense Authorization Act
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
The NDAA required the Pentagon to provide expanded briefings on UAP intercepts since 2004 and address classification issues, reflecting congressional pressure for greater transparency and oversight, which supported market interest in potential disclosure.
National Defense Authorization Act for 2026 mandates UAP briefings to Congress
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide Congress with briefings on UAP incidents dating back to 2004 and to review classification policies. This legislative action signaled increased governmental transparency and accountability, supporting market expectations for disclosure.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates Pentagon briefings on UAPs since 2004
December 31 rises to 14%3%
The 2026 NDAA required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide Congress with detailed briefings on UAP intercepts dating back to 2004, review over-classification of related data, and streamline reporting. This legislative action intensified disclosure pressure and supported market optimism.
Congress mandates new briefings on UAP military intercepts in 2026 NDAA
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring the Pentagon's anomaly office to brief Congress on UAP encounters, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency on UFOs and extraterrestrial phenomena.
Congress mandates military briefings on UAP intercepts in 2026 NDAA
December 31 rises to 13%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring the Department of Defense to provide Congress with detailed briefings on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) intercepts. This legislative action increased public and market attention on potential official disclosures.
Congress mandates UAP intercept briefings in 2026 defense bill
December 31 rises to 12%1%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide Congress with data on UAP intercepts, fueling speculation about government transparency on UFOs but without definitive confirmation, supporting moderate market prices.
UFO whistleblower David Grusch says Trump briefed on UAPs
Whistleblower David Grusch stated in an interview that President Trump had been 'fully briefed' on UAPs, including crashed spacecraft, multiple alien races, and their intentions.
Congress includes UAP reporting provisions in 2026 defense policy bill
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandated the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide Congress with detailed briefings on UAP intercepts, increasing official transparency on the subject. This legislative action supported market optimism about potential disclosures, sustaining elevated prices around 11-13%.
Congress mandates expanded military briefings on UAPs in 2026 NDAA
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide Congress with detailed briefings on UAP intercepts, increasing official attention to the subject and sustaining market interest.
US Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna publicly asserts UAPs are real and evidence is withheld
December 31 rises to 14%2%
Rep. Luna cited witness testimony and classified briefings suggesting UAPs may be interdimensional and that the government is hiding crucial imagery, increasing public and market interest in official disclosure.
Pentagon mandated by NDAA to provide expanded UAP briefings to Congress
On December 10, 2025, the National Defense Authorization Act required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to deliver detailed briefings on UAP intercepts, increasing transparency efforts but without confirming alien existence. This legislative action maintained market interest but did not cause major price shifts.
Congress mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP incidents in 2026 NDAA
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts since 2004 and review classification policies, signaling increased transparency efforts and boosting market confidence in potential disclosure.
Fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings to Congress
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The NDAA required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP incidents since 2004 and review classification policies. This legislative action intensified expectations for official disclosure, contributing to market price increases.
Congress Directs Military to Provide Briefings on UAP Intercepts in Fiscal 2026 Defense Bill
The conferenced version of the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) included provisions requiring the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) to brief Congress on military UAP intercepts. This legislative action maintained steady interest in official disclosure efforts but did not trigger a major price spike.
Fiscal 2026 NDAA mandates expanded Pentagon briefings on UAP intercepts
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The NDAA required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) to provide Congress with detailed briefings on UAP intercepts since 2004, address overclassification issues, and streamline reporting. This legislative action signaled increased government transparency and oversight, positively influencing market sentiment.
Congress mandates UAP-related briefings in defense policy bill
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring detailed reporting on UAP intercepts, increasing expectations of official disclosure and impacting market prices.
Congress Includes UAP Briefing Mandates in FY 2026 Defense Policy Bill
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The conferenced version of the FY 2026 NDAA was finalized, requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) to provide expanded briefings to Congress on UAP intercepts since 2004.
Fiscal Year 2026 NDAA mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP intercepts since 2004
December 31 rises to 13%3%
The NDAA included provisions requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide expanded briefings to Congress on UAP incidents dating back to 2004, review over-classification of related data, and streamline reporting. This legislative action increased transparency pressure but did not confirm alien existence, causing market price fluctuations around 10-13%.
Congress mandates more UAP briefings in 2026 National Defense Authorization Act
The fiscal 2026 NDAA included provisions requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide detailed briefings to Congress on UAP intercepts, signaling increased governmental transparency efforts but no confirmation of alien existence.
Congress mandates expanded Pentagon briefings on UAPs in NDAA
December 31 rises to 11%1%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide detailed briefings on UAP intercepts, signaling increased transparency efforts. This legislative action supported market optimism, maintaining prices near 11%.
Congress Demands Briefings on Military UAP Intercepts
On December 10, 2025, Congress included provisions in the fiscal 2026 NDAA requiring briefings on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) intercepts by military commands, indicating ongoing government interest but no confirmation of alien life, keeping market prices steady.
Fiscal 2026 NDAA mandates new briefings on UAP encounters since 2004
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 required Pentagon briefings to Congress on UAP incidents and reviews of classified material, signaling legislative intent to increase transparency and fueling market expectations for official confirmation by year-end.
Fiscal 2026 NDAA mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP intercepts
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The National Defense Authorization Act required the Pentagon to provide expanded briefings to Congress on UAP encounters since 2004, increasing transparency efforts and legislative pressure for disclosure, which influenced market optimism.
Congressional hearing on UAPs includes testimony from military personnel and UFO experts
December 31 rises to 12%2%
A special hearing in the US House of Representatives featured testimony from former Air Force and Navy personnel and UFO community figures, reinforcing the seriousness of the UAP issue and briefly boosting market confidence in potential disclosure.
Congress mandates briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004
December 31 rises to 12%1%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required new briefings and reviews of classified UAP information, signaling increased transparency efforts and legislative pressure, which supported market optimism for disclosure by year-end 2026.
Congress demands detailed reports on military UAP intercepts in defense bill
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions directing the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) to provide Congress with briefings and data on UAP intercepts by military commands. This increased congressional scrutiny likely sustained market interest in potential disclosures.
Congress mandates UAP briefings in 2026 National Defense Authorization Act
The fiscal 2026 NDAA included provisions requiring the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide Congress with detailed briefings on UAP intercepts, signaling increased government transparency efforts. This legislative action contributed to market interest but did not confirm extraterrestrial life.
Congress Includes Key UAP Disclosure Provisions in Fiscal 2026 NDAA
December 31 dips to 11%1%
The conferenced version of the FY2026 defense policy bill mandated that the Pentagon's AARO brief lawmakers on military UAP intercepts and address over-classification, reinforcing legislative pressure toward disclosure.
Congress Demands More Data on Military UAP Intercepts
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts by Northcom and NORAD. This legislative action increased market interest and price to around 12% by early December, signaling hopes for greater transparency.
Congressional NDAA Mandates Briefings on UAP Intercepts and Review of Classified Information
December 31 rises to 12%1%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP incidents since 2004 and review over-classification, signaling legislative intent to increase transparency on UFOs and extraterrestrial phenomena.
Congress includes directives for UAP transparency in 2026 defense bill
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandated briefings and data disclosures on UAP intercepts, signaling legislative momentum toward transparency and influencing market optimism about potential official confirmation.
Congress mandates All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to report on UAP intercepts
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included directives for the AARO to provide Congress with detailed briefings on UAP intercepts, signaling increased government transparency efforts and sustaining market interest in possible alien confirmation.
Trump's top national security officials to brief 'Gang of Eight' US lawmakers
December 31 rises to 13%2%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were scheduled to brief key lawmakers on December 9, 2025, likely including UAP topics. This official engagement raised market interest in possible disclosures.
Trump UFO disclosure predicted to come in just DAYS after mysterious 'insider' tip
A Daily Mail article reported a mysterious insider tip suggesting Trump would disclose UFO information by December 31, 2025, with Polymarket odds rising to 98% 'Yes'.
Top US defense officials to brief lawmakers on UFOs
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine were reported to brief the 'Gang of Eight' lawmakers on UFO matters, indicating ongoing government attention but no public confirmation of alien existence, resulting in minor market fluctuations.
Top US defense officials brief 'Gang of Eight' lawmakers on UAPs
December 31 dips to 12%3%
On December 9, 2025, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine briefed key US lawmakers on UAP military intercepts, indicating ongoing government attention but without confirming extraterrestrial origins, which maintained market uncertainty.
UFO whistleblower claims Trump fully briefed on alien presence
December 31 rises to 12%2%
On December 9, 2025, whistleblower David Grusch publicly stated that Trump had been fully briefed on alien hybrids living among humans and secret government programs. This reinforced market optimism, with prices rising from 10% to 12%.
NASA Announces Upcoming Space Technology Research Solicitation
December 31 rises to 12%2%
NASA's announcement of a major research solicitation for space technology in December 2025 indicated ongoing efforts to explore space and potentially detect extraterrestrial life, maintaining market interest in a possible US confirmation.
Top US Security Officials to Brief 'Gang of Eight' Lawmakers on UAPs
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio planned a briefing for key lawmakers on UAPs, signaling increased government transparency efforts and sustaining market interest.
Polymarket Betting Activity Explodes on Trump Declassifying UFO Files
December 31 dips to 12%1%
A massive surge in betting volume and shifting odds on a related Polymarket contract regarding Trump declassifying UFO files by the end of 2025 generated widespread media coverage and drove up prices in related alien disclosure markets.
UFO whistleblower David Grusch reveals Trump was fully briefed on UAP crash retrievals
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
David Grusch testified that former President Trump was fully briefed on classified programs involving UAP crash retrievals and non-human intelligence technology, fueling speculation about imminent disclosure and increasing market interest in official confirmation by year-end.
U.S. defense chiefs to brief ‘Gang of Eight’ lawmakers on UAPs, Reuters says
December 31 dips to 10%3%
Reuters reported that senior defense officials were briefing the “Gang of Eight” on UAP matters, confirming that top‑level officials were preparing a formal disclosure to Congress. The news coincided with a sharp decline from the 13 % peak to 9 % on 2025‑12‑02 and a modest rise to 10 % on 2025‑12‑05, reflecting market reactions to the possibility of a near‑term official statement.
Fiscal Year 2026 NDAA mandates new briefings on UAP encounters since 2004
December 31 rises to 12%1%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 required the Pentagon's anomaly office to brief Congress on UAP incidents and review classification practices, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency and fueling market expectations for disclosure by year-end 2026.
NASA issues request for information on space technology for Moon and Mars missions
NASA's solicitation for advanced space technologies related to lunar and Martian exploration highlighted ongoing government focus on space science but did not include any confirmation of extraterrestrial life. This contributed to steady market prices without significant jumps.
Top national security officials to brief key lawmakers on UAPs
December 31 rises to 11%2%
On December 9, 2025, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were scheduled to brief the 'Gang of Eight' lawmakers on UAP matters, indicating high-level government engagement and transparency efforts that influenced market sentiment.
Speculation grows on alien spacecraft after discovery of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 drops to 13%8%
Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb suggested the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS might be an alien spacecraft, intensifying public and market interest in extraterrestrial confirmation, sustaining elevated prices around 13%.
Republican lawmaker Anna Paulina Luna demands release of additional UAP videos
Rep. Luna’s public demand for the Pentagon to release 46 more UAP videos added pressure on the agency to be more transparent, reinforcing market expectations of a possible official confirmation before year‑end and contributing to the price jump on Dec 8.
NASA's Hubble telescope observes interstellar object 3I/ATLAS in active state
December 31 rises to 12%4%
NASA and ESA observations of the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, which some speculate could be alien technology, kept public and scientific interest high but did not constitute official confirmation, maintaining moderate market optimism.
CIA refuses to confirm or deny existence of alien mothership records
December 31 plunges to 13%85%
In response to a FOIA request, the CIA issued a refusal to confirm or deny the existence of records related to the 3I/ATLAS object, creating a significant risk assessment ambiguity.
Congress releases reconciled text for 2026 National Defense Authorization Act
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The bill mandated fresh briefings on UAP incidents since 2004 and required examination of over-classification and withholding of information, signaling legislative momentum towards transparency on UFOs. This legislative action contributed to a market price increase reflecting higher confidence in disclosure.
UFO whistleblower claims Trump was fully briefed on aliens
December 31 drops to 12%9%
Whistleblower David Grusch claimed President Trump was fully briefed on secret UFO programs and alien life, intensifying public debate but lacking official confirmation, contributing to market volatility and a subsequent price drop.
Speculative Betting on Trump UFO Disclosure Explodes on Polymarket
December 31 rises to 13%3%
A massive surge in wagering on whether Donald Trump would declassify UFO files by the end of 2025 drove up related prediction markets, pushing the probability of confirmation to its peak.
UFO whistleblower claims Trump fully briefed on alien life secrets
December 31 drops to 13%8%
On December 8, 2025, reports emerged that UFO whistleblower David Grusch stated President Trump had been fully briefed on secret UFO programs and extraterrestrial information. This fueled further speculation and market optimism about a possible official confirmation of alien existence, contributing to sustained elevated prices in the market.
‘The Age of Disclosure’ documentary shines light on UAP cover‑up
December 31 dips to 12%2%
Fox News ran a piece spotlighting the new documentary “The Age of Disclosure,” which featured 34 former officials alleging a decades‑long UAP cover‑up. The media push added momentum to the market, contributing to a brief dip from 14 % to 12 % as the hype peaked and then settled.
UFO Whistleblower David Grusch Claims Trump Was Fully Briefed on Alien Hybrids
December 31 rises to 13%2%
Whistleblower David Grusch claimed that President Trump was fully briefed on alien life and recovered spacecraft, driving prediction market activity and odds to a peak around December 7-8.
Polymarket clarifies that AARO paper does not meet declassification criteria
December 31 dips to 10%3%
Following the lack of any official U.S. statement or document release, Polymarket posted a clarification that the AARO paper was only a procedural guide and not an actual declassification of UFO files. Traders reassessed the odds, causing the market price to drop back toward 10 % Yes.
UFO whistleblower claims Trump briefed on alien life and hybrid species
December 31 plunges to 13%85%
Whistleblower David Grusch alleged that President Trump was 'fully briefed' on UFOs, alien life, and crossbreeding with humans, adding credibility to the disclosure speculation.
Congress mandates new briefings on UAP encounters in 2026 NDAA
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required fresh briefings on UAP incidents since 2004 and reviews of classified material, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency and boosting market optimism.
UFO Whistleblower David Grusch Says Trump Is Fully Read-In on UAPs
December 31 rises to 13%1%
UFO whistleblower David Grusch stated in an interview that President Trump was fully briefed on UAPs, which intensified speculation about potential disclosures in 2026 and contributed to the market's peak at 13%.
Whistleblower David Grusch claims Trump was fully briefed on alien presence
December 31 dips to 11%1%
David Grusch publicly stated that former President Donald Trump was fully briefed on secret UFO programs and extraterrestrial entities, including alien hybrids. These claims intensified public and political pressure for disclosure, influencing market sentiment positively.
Speculation grows on 2026 UFO evidence release amid whistleblower activity
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Insider speculation intensified in early December 2025 about the US potentially revealing authentic UFO evidence in 2026, supported by ongoing whistleblower testimonies and legislative efforts, causing a modest price uptick.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' highlights decades of government UFO secrecy
December 31 rises to 13%2%
The release and Capitol Hill screening of the documentary featuring former officials claiming government cover-ups of extraterrestrial life increased public and market interest, pushing the December 31 outcome price to 13%. However, skepticism remained due to lack of official confirmation.
Polymarket reports spike on talk of Trump releasing UFO files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Speculation about an imminent UFO disclosure by President Trump caused a surge in market optimism, with Polymarket noting a 12% chance of official alien confirmation. Despite no formal announcement, this fueled a price peak on December 7-8.
Fiscal 2026 NDAA mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP intercepts since 2004
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
The NDAA provision requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts and review classification policies increased expectations of official disclosure, driving the market price to a high of 21% on December 7.
Polymarket odds skyrocket as Trump UFO disclosure bet shifts from 6% to 98% 'Yes' within days
December 31 rises to 12%2%
A sudden surge in betting activity on Polymarket, with over $7 million in wagers, indicated a dramatic increase in confidence that the Trump administration would declassify UFO files by the end of 2025.
Congress mandates new briefings and reviews on UAP incidents in 2026 NDAA
December 31 jumps to 16%7%
The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required fresh briefings on UAP encounters since 2004 and a review of whether critical information was excessively classified or withheld from lawmakers. This legislative action increased market optimism about potential disclosure.
National Defense Authorization Act Demands New UAP Briefings and Data Review
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandated fresh briefings on UAP incidents since 2004 and a review of classified materials, increasing political pressure for disclosure and causing a market price peak.
Polymarket tweet sparks debate on imminent UFO disclosures
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Polymarket tweeted about a 12% chance of official alien confirmation in 2025, stirring fresh debate and increasing market interest. This social media activity briefly raised the market price for the December 31 outcome, reflecting heightened speculation about UFO disclosures.
Sudden surge in Polymarket bets on Trump declassifying UFO files in 2025
December 31 jumps to 21%14%
On December 7, 2025, a sharp increase in betting volume on Polymarket occurred, with odds for Trump officially disclosing UFO files skyrocketing from 6% to over 80%. This surge was attributed to aggressive purchases by a small group of traders, possibly insiders, sparking widespread speculation about imminent disclosure. The market price for the December 31 outcome rose significantly, reflecting heightened optimism.
UFO Documentary and New Evidence Highlight Government UFO Investigations
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
An explosive documentary and new scientific findings about UFOs and drone sightings near nuclear sites increased public and expert attention on extraterrestrial phenomena, boosting market prices to a peak of 21%.
National Defense Authorization Act for 2026 mandates UAP briefings and review of classified material
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The NDAA required new briefings to Congress on UAP encounters since 2004 and a review of whether important information has been excessively classified or withheld. This legislative action increased expectations for official disclosure, causing a market price peak.
Polymarket Activity Explodes on Rumors of Imminent Trump UFO Disclosure
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
A massive surge in betting occurred on prediction platforms following rumors that President Trump would declassify UFO files within days, driving the market to its peak.
Market optimism surges amid speculation of imminent UFO disclosure
December 31 rises to 13%4%
Speculation and betting surged on Polymarket that the Trump administration would disclose UFO files by year-end, driving the market price from 9% to 13%. This was fueled by media reports and whistleblower claims about government knowledge of extraterrestrial encounters.
NASA Perseverance Rover Analyzes Martian Rock Cores
December 31 jumps to 21%9%
NASA's Perseverance rover continued analyzing Martian rock cores with advanced tools, contributing to ongoing extraterrestrial life research.
Scientists publish findings on historic UFO sightings near nuclear sites
December 31 jumps to 21%10%
On December 7, 2025, research published highlighted transient star-like flashes in decades-old photos near nuclear testing sites, renewing scientific interest in unidentified aerial phenomena. This contributed to a peak in market prices as it suggested potential evidence relevant to extraterrestrial life.
Polymarket Bets Spike on Talk of Trump Releasing UFO Files
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Speculation about imminent UFO disclosures and President Trump's possible declassification of files caused a price spike to 21% on December 7, reflecting heightened market optimism about official confirmation.
UMA proposal claims AARO document fulfills UFO de‑classification criteria, causing Polymarket “Yes” surge
December 31 surges to 80%75%
A governance proposal on the UMA oracle argued that a September AARO de‑classification paper satisfied the market’s “UFO de‑classification” condition. The proposal triggered massive buying of the “Yes” outcome, sending the price from 5 % on Dec 6 to over 80 % by Dec 8. This spike is the biggest swing recorded in the price history (‑7 % → +5 % points).
Congress Releases Final FY 2026 NDAA Mandating Expanded Pentagon UAP Briefings
December 31 jumps to 16%7%
The release of the reconciled FY 2026 NDAA text, which included specific mandates for the Pentagon's AARO to brief Congress on UAP intercepts, drove the market to its peak of 16%.
Polymarket reports spike in bets on UFO disclosures amid talk of Trump releasing files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
On December 7, 2025, Polymarket highlighted a 12% chance of official alien confirmation, stirring debate and increasing market interest. This media attention caused a price increase in the market for the December 31 outcome, reflecting heightened trader speculation about imminent disclosures.
Polymarket bets surge on Trump UFO disclosure rumors
December 31 jumps to 21%14%
On December 7, 2025, Polymarket saw a dramatic increase in bets that the Trump administration would declassify UFO files by year-end, pushing market prices up to a peak of 21%. This reflected growing public and trader belief in imminent disclosure, though no official confirmation was made.
NASA and astronomers report no evidence of extraterrestrial technology in interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 12%4%
Astronomers using the Green Bank Telescope found no technosignatures from comet 3I/ATLAS, and NASA officials publicly dismissed alien spaceship theories, leading to a market price correction downward from the earlier speculative peak.
NASA and Astronomers Find No Evidence of Alien Technology in Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Astronomers using the Green Bank Telescope observed comet 3I/ATLAS at its closest approach and found no technosignatures, while NASA officials publicly dismissed alien spacecraft theories, reinforcing official denial and causing a brief market price increase followed by decline.
NASA publicly rejects alien conspiracy theories about interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 9%4%
NASA officials, including Nicola Fox, denied any technosignatures or extraterrestrial technology related to 3I/ATLAS, dampening market enthusiasm and causing a price drop from 13% to 9%. This official dismissal reduced expectations of imminent confirmation.
NASA and scientists report new clues in search for extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 14%4%
NASA's ongoing missions and advanced telescopes provided new data on exoplanet atmospheres and Martian geology, increasing optimism about finding extraterrestrial life. This scientific progress contributed to a market price peak at 21% for the December 31 outcome.
President Trump Signs Executive Order on Ensuring American Space Superiority
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
President Trump signed an executive order to enhance US leadership in space, accelerating lunar and deep-space efforts. This bolstered market confidence in US space initiatives but did not directly confirm extraterrestrial life, causing a sharp price rise to 16% followed by a quick correction.
Trump administration releases additional UFO files with retro Pentagon website
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
On December 7, 2025, the Pentagon released 162 new UFO-related files on a retro-themed website, including State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts. The administration emphasized transparency, but the files did not confirm alien technology. This release caused a peak in market price to 21%, reflecting increased public interest and speculation.
Polymarket betting odds spike on speculation of Trump declassifying UFO files in 2025
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A surge in betting on Polymarket reflected growing market speculation that the Trump administration would officially release UFO/UAP files by the end of 2025. Although no official announcement was made, this speculative activity influenced market prices upward.
Polymarket betting surges on Trump UFO file declassification rumors
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Polymarket saw a sharp increase in bets that the Trump administration would declassify UFO/UAP files by the end of 2025, with odds rising significantly and fueling market optimism about official disclosure.
Polymarket odds surge as UFO disclosure betting explodes
December 31 surges to 98%92%
A tweet declaring a 12% chance of alien confirmation in 2025 sparked massive betting activity on Polymarket, with odds for Trump declassifying UFO files surging from 6% to 98% within days.
UFO Whistleblower Claims Trump Fully Briefed on UAPs
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
David Grusch, a UFO whistleblower, stated that President Trump was fully briefed on unidentified aerial phenomena, which caused a sharp market price jump from 10% to 21%. This statement intensified speculation about imminent official disclosure but did not constitute confirmation.
Polymarket reports spike in odds amid rumors of imminent UFO disclosures
December 31 rises to 12%3%
On December 7, 2025, Polymarket announced a surge in the odds of official alien confirmation to 12%, driven by rumors of imminent UFO file releases under the Trump administration. This fueled trader interest and caused a price increase in the market for the December 31 outcome.
Polymarket betting surges on rumors of Trump declassifying UFO files
December 31 surges to 21%15%
Polymarket saw a dramatic increase in bets that the Trump administration would disclose UFO and alien life information by the end of 2025, pushing market odds from 6% to 21%. This reflected growing public anticipation of official confirmation.
CIA refuses to confirm or deny existence of alien mothership related to comet 3I/ATLAS
Following a November press conference declaring comet 3I/ATLAS as natural, the CIA's refusal to confirm or deny records about the object fueled speculation about alien technology, causing a market price increase to 21% Yes on December 7 and 13% on December 8 for the December 31 outcome.
NASA advances in detecting extraterrestrial biosignatures with new space telescope data
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
NASA's James Webb Space Telescope and other missions provided new data on exoplanet atmospheres and Mars, fueling speculation about imminent confirmation of alien life and pushing market prices to a peak of 21%.
Polymarket odds surge to 98% as Trump UFO disclosure bet explodes
December 31 surges to 98%92%
A wagering pool on Polymarket showed odds for Trump declassifying UFO files jumped to 98% after over $7 million in bets, driven by insider tips and promises from the administration.
Expert predicts Trump will release non-blurry UFO photos in 2026
December 31 jumps to 21%14%
An expert forecasted that 2026 would see the release of clear UFO photos and potentially the end of a decades-long cover-up, fueling market speculation about official disclosure under President Trump.
Compromise Text of FY 2026 NDAA Released with Key Pentagon UAP Briefing Mandates
December 31 jumps to 21%10%
Leadership from the House and Senate Armed Services committees released the compromise text of the FY 2026 NDAA, which includes provisions requiring the Pentagon's AARO to brief Congress on UAP intercepts since 2004.
Trump administration releases new UFO files on unidentified anomalous phenomena
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
President Trump's administration began releasing declassified Pentagon files on UFOs and UAPs, including 162 documents such as State Department cables, FBI records, and NASA transcripts. This marked a significant transparency push on a topic of public interest, potentially influencing market sentiment.
UMA proposal argues AARO September paper counts as UFO declassification
A UMA governance proposal filed on December 7 claimed that a September 2025 AARO document titled “AARO and the Decryption Process” satisfied Polymarket’s “official declassification” criteria. The filing was publicized in crypto‑news outlets and was interpreted by market participants as a de‑facto confirmation, reinforcing the price spike.
Polymarket tweet spikes odds of a US alien‑confirmation announcement
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Polymarket posted a tweet on December 7 saying the chance of a U.S. government confirmation of extraterrestrials in 2025 had jumped to 12 %, prompting a surge of buying on the “Will the US confirm aliens exist?” market. The odds rose from single‑digit levels to the mid‑70 % range within hours, lifting the market price from ~7 % to over 13 % Yes.
Documentary and whistleblower pressure intensify calls for US UFO disclosure
December 31 jumps to 21%12%
The release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary and whistleblower testimonies increased political pressure on the US government to declassify UFO information, raising market expectations for official confirmation by end of 2026.
Legislative push intensifies with 2026 National Defense Authorization Act
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
The 2026 NDAA mandated fresh briefings on UAP incidents and review of classified materials, signaling increased political will for transparency and disclosure, which boosted market prices.
Polymarket betting odds surge on Trump declassifying UFO files in 2025
December 31 jumps to 14%7%
A sudden surge in betting volume on Polymarket caused odds for Trump declassifying UFO files in 2025 to spike from single digits to over 80%, reflecting market speculation and possible insider confidence, though no official disclosure was made at that time.
Polymarket odds skyrocket to 98% for Trump to declassify UFO files by Dec 31
A Polymarket article reported that odds for the Trump Administration declassifying UFO files had surged to 98%, following a December 7 post that revealed over $7 million in bets and a shift from 6% to 98% 'Yes' odds.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings and reviews
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
Congress passed legislation requiring new briefings on unidentified aerial phenomena and reviews of classified material, signaling increased transparency efforts and boosting market confidence in a December 31 confirmation.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with public urged to draw own conclusions
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
On December 6, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified aerial phenomena. This release, promoted by the Trump administration as a move toward transparency, sparked increased public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life, causing a rise in the market price for the December 31 outcome from 7% to 13%.
Polymarket betting spikes as Daily Mail says Trump may declassify UFO files within days
December 31 jumps to 21%9%
The Daily Mail ran a piece linking a Polymarket betting surge to statements by Joe Rogan and former Air Force officer David Grusch that President Trump was “fully briefed” on alien material. The story pushed the Yes probability up to a 21 % high on 2025‑12‑07, the market’s biggest one‑day swing.
Researchers call for serious academic study of UFOs amid ongoing Pentagon investigations
Following congressional hearings and Pentagon reports acknowledging unidentified aerial phenomena anomalies but no definitive extraterrestrial evidence, researchers urged academia to intensify UFO studies, sustaining public and market interest without confirmation.
Scientists express serious questions about UFOs amid ongoing government hearings
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Congress held hearings in 2025 on UAPs with scientists acknowledging anomalies but no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, maintaining uncertainty and limiting market price increases.
Pentagon releases new batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The Pentagon made public a new set of UAP videos and reports, including historic sightings, intensifying speculation that the agency might soon acknowledge extraterrestrial technology, which pushed the market’s Yes price for the December‑31 outcome upward.
Scientists and Congress express skepticism on UFO and alien claims
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Following congressional hearings and scientific reviews, skepticism about UFOs and alien life was reinforced, with data showing geographic biases and lack of definitive evidence. This tempered market enthusiasm and stabilized prices around 11-12%.
Pentagon releases new UFO files sparking speculation of alien evidence
December 31 dips to 9%4%
The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, prompting media outlets to highlight the possibility of official acknowledgment and pushing the market’s Yes price up from 13% to 9% as traders priced in a higher chance of a December‑31 confirmation.
Polymarket betting surges on Trump UFO disclosure prediction
December 31 jumps to 13%5%
Polymarket saw a dramatic increase in bets predicting that the Trump administration would declassify UFO files by the end of 2025, pushing market odds sharply higher and reflecting growing public expectation of official disclosure.
Pentagon says newly released Navy video indeed shows UFOs
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Pentagon spokeswoman Susan Gough publicly confirmed that newly released Navy video footage indeed shows unidentified aerial phenomena, describing three distinct objects. The admission that the material is a genuine UFO increased confidence that the government might soon acknowledge extraterrestrial origins, raising the Yes price from 9 % on Dec 3 to 11 % on Dec 6.
Congress holds hearings on UFOs and UAPs amid growing reports
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
Congressional hearings in early December 2025, discussing hundreds of UAP reports and Pentagon statements acknowledging anomalies but no definitive extraterrestrial evidence, maintained market interest and price around 10-12%.
Federal judge blocks Pentagon policy limiting reporters’ access
December 31 rises to 12%2%
A district court ruled that the Trump administration’s new Pentagon credential rules violated First Amendment rights, reducing optimism that the agency would openly acknowledge UFO findings and causing the market to retreat.
USCIS implements increased screening and vetting of aliens
December 31 dips to 12%2%
On December 5, 2025, USCIS implemented new policies increasing screening and vetting of aliens working in the US, reflecting immigration policy changes unrelated to alien life confirmation, with no significant impact on the market for alien existence confirmation.
NASA launches citizen science initiative to help identify extraterrestrial intelligence signals
December 31 rises to 12%2%
NASA launched a citizen science program allowing volunteers to help identify potential signals in data that might indicate extraterrestrial intelligence, increasing public and scientific engagement with the search for alien life.
Congress mandates new briefings on UAP encounters in 2026 NDAA
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required fresh briefings on UAP incidents dating back to 2004 and a review of classified material, signaling increased legislative pressure for disclosure and supporting market confidence in a possible confirmation by year-end.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings to Congress
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The 2026 NDAA required fresh briefings on unidentified aerial phenomena dating back to 2004 and a review of classified materials, increasing legislative pressure for transparency and disclosure.
Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The NDAA for 2026 required fresh briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004 and a review of classification practices, signaling increased congressional scrutiny and legislative momentum toward potential disclosure. This legislative action supported sustained market interest, with prices stabilizing around 10-12%.
UFO Declassified Documents Released by Defense Department
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Defense Department released declassified documents about government UFO sightings, increasing public and market interest in extraterrestrial phenomena.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files without confirming alien existence
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of UFO files, including old State Department cables and NASA transcripts, but emphasized that the information was unresolved and left interpretation to the public. This release sparked public interest but did not include any official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a temporary rise in market probability.
CIA issues ambiguous response on interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 rises to 10%1%
In response to a FOIA request, the CIA neither confirmed nor denied records on the mysterious interstellar visitor 3I/ATLAS, contradicting NASA's natural comet explanation. This fueled speculation about government concealment, causing a price rise to 10-12%.
Pentagon releases 162 declassified UFO files spanning 1942 to 2025
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The Department of War published a large collection of declassified files on unidentified anomalous phenomena, including videos and documents, as part of a transparency effort ordered by President Trump. This unprecedented release increased public and market speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial life.
Trump UFO disclosure odds hit over $6M bets suggest insider knowledge
December 31 rises to 12%1%
Polymarket betting activity surged, with over $6 million in bets placed on Trump demanding government disclosure of alien information, shifting odds from 6% to 98% 'Yes'.
Government releases new UFO videos via AARO agency
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The US government agency AARO released new UFO videos, fueling public and market speculation about official disclosures and increasing confidence in the possibility of confirmation by year-end.
President Trump teases major UFO document dump on Truth Social
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Trump posted on Truth Social that he would soon release a large trove of UFO records, reviving public and congressional pressure for official disclosure and raising expectations that the government might confirm alien existence before Dec 31.
Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office releases three new UFO videos
December 31 rises to 13%3%
AARO publicly released three new videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, two unresolved and one identified as birds, demonstrating ongoing transparency efforts. This release maintained market interest but did not constitute official confirmation, causing minor price fluctuations.
House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hearing on UAPs
December 31 rises to 12%1%
A hearing discussed UAP sightings and extraterrestrial encounters, contributing to public and market interest in UFO disclosures.
House Science Committee Hearing on Space and Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 dips to 12%1%
A House Science, Space, and Technology Committee hearing discussed U.S. space exploration priorities, including planetary exploration and extraterrestrial life, reinforcing the space-related narrative.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio defends UFO remarks amid disclosure documentary
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Marco Rubio publicly stood by his statements suggesting government knowledge of UFOs and possible alien technology, coinciding with the release of the documentary "The Age of Disclosure." This increased public and market interest in potential official confirmation.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates new briefings on UAP encounters
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Congress passed legislation requiring updated briefings on UAP incidents dating back to 2004 and a review of classified materials, signaling increased governmental transparency efforts. This legislative action supported market optimism for disclosure.
White House releases National Security Strategy emphasizing space leadership
December 31 dips to 8%1%
The December 4 release of the National Security Strategy highlighted US ambitions in space, including lunar and deep-space efforts, which maintained market interest but did not provide direct confirmation of extraterrestrial life, keeping prices stable around 8-12%.
US House Committee holds hearing on UAPs and extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 17%7%
A congressional hearing on UAPs increased public and market attention on the possibility of official disclosure, contributing to price volatility and a rise to 17% on December 7.
White House releases 2025 National Security Strategy without alien disclosure
December 31 dips to 10%2%
The White House published its National Security Strategy, which did not include any confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology. This absence of disclosure contributed to a slight market pullback from recent highs.
Pentagon’s AARO releases three new UFO videos, two unresolved
December 31 dips to 12%2%
The All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office released new UAP videos, but dismissed further analysis for two unresolved cases, fueling skepticism about government transparency and limiting market enthusiasm for definitive confirmation.
National Security Advisor Shellenberger Predicts Massive Disclosure on Alien Tech
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Michael Shellenberger, serving as a senior advisor, stated that the U.S. is headed toward massive disclosure regarding recovered alien technology, fueling market expectations.
Documentary claims Bush 41 was informed aliens made contact
December 31 rises to 10%1%
A documentary released in early December 2025 claimed that a former US president knew about alien contact, fueling speculation about government knowledge and potential disclosure, which supported a slight market price increase.
Panel discussion on extraterrestrial intelligence at Penn State
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A public event featuring experts discussing the search for extraterrestrial intelligence took place, generating media interest and public speculation but no official confirmation from the US government, resulting in limited market impact.
Survey finds 58% of astrobiology experts believe intelligent extraterrestrial life likely exists
December 31 rises to 10%1%
A survey of over 500 astrobiology experts showing majority belief in intelligent extraterrestrial life increased market confidence that official confirmation might occur, contributing to price rise.
Interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS makes closest approach to Earth amid alien technology speculation
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The approach of the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS sparked renewed public and media interest in extraterrestrial technology theories, briefly boosting market optimism about alien confirmation. However, scientific consensus leaned towards natural origin, tempering enthusiasm.
NASA reaffirms 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet
December 31 dips to 9%4%
Following the CIA's ambiguous statement, NASA officials publicly stated that 3I/ATLAS is definitively a comet of natural origin, countering alien spacecraft theories. This official stance tempered market enthusiasm, causing a price drop from 13% to 9%.
UFO whistleblower claims Trump briefed on alien hybrids living among humans
December 31 rises to 13%3%
A whistleblower advising Congress's UAP Task Force claimed President Trump was fully briefed on extraterrestrial hybrids living among humans and suggested imminent disclosure, which increased market optimism about official confirmation by year-end.
NASA James Webb Telescope Detects Exoplanet Atmospheric Compositions
December 31 rises to 10%1%
NASA reported the James Webb Space Telescope detecting atmospheric compositions of exoplanets dozens of light-years away, advancing the search for extraterrestrial life.
Obama clarifies no evidence of alien contact during presidency
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Former President Obama stated publicly that he saw no evidence during his presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with Earth, tempering public expectations and causing a slight market pullback from 13% to 12%.
Congress mandates new briefings on UAP encounters in 2026 NDAA
The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required new briefings on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) encounters dating back to 2004 and a review of classified materials. This legislative action intensified political pressure for disclosure, supporting market optimism for a December 31 confirmation.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings and reviews
December 31 rises to 15%2%
The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required new briefings on UAP encounters since 2004 and reviews of classification practices, signaling increased government transparency efforts and boosting market confidence in potential disclosure.
National Defense Authorization Act 2026 mandates UAP briefings to Congress
December 31 dips to 9%4%
The 2026 NDAA required new briefings on UAP encounters since 2004 and a review of classified materials, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency and fueling market speculation about potential disclosures.
Poll Shows Nearly Half of Americans Believe Aliens Have Visited Earth
December 31 dips to 9%2%
A YouGov poll indicated that 47% of Americans think aliens have probably visited Earth, up from 36% in 2012, reflecting growing public belief and interest that supported market confidence in a possible official confirmation.
Whistleblower claims Trump fully briefed on UFOs and alien technology
December 31 dips to 9%4%
David Grusch, a UFO whistleblower, stated that Trump was fully briefed on secret UFO programs and extraterrestrial information, increasing market optimism about disclosure by year-end.
Release of documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' intensifies UFO disclosure speculation
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The documentary featuring 34 current and former US government and military officials alleging a cover-up increased public and political pressure for disclosure, boosting market prices notably around early December 2025.
Release of "The Age of Disclosure" documentary alleging UFO cover-up
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
The documentary featuring 34 current and former US government and military officials alleging a decades-long UFO cover-up increased public and political pressure for disclosure, fueling market interest.
Trump administration begins releasing new Pentagon UFO files
December 31 rises to 10%3%
On November 29, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified anomalous phenomena. President Trump emphasized transparency, encouraging the public to draw their own conclusions. This event increased market optimism slightly, reflected in the price rising from 7% to 10%.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked renewed public curiosity and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the documents did not confirm the existence of alien technology, leading to a temporary price increase in the market for US confirmation of aliens.
Analysis reveals extraterrestrial origin of DNA nucleobases in ancient meteorite
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Scientific analysis published in late November 2025 confirmed that all five nucleobases forming DNA and RNA were present in an ancient meteorite, providing compelling evidence of extraterrestrial organic molecules and fueling public interest in alien life.
Release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary alleging decades-long UFO cover-up
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The documentary featured 34 current and former US government, military, and intelligence officials claiming a multi-decade concealment operation regarding UFOs. This intensified public and political pressure for disclosure, contributing to a market price peak around this time.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' fuels speculation on US UFO evidence release
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The release of a documentary featuring whistleblowers alleging government cover-ups of extraterrestrial technology increased public and political pressure for disclosure, contributing to a price peak in the market.
New analysis highlights presence of extraterrestrial molecules in ancient meteorite
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Scientific findings revealing extraterrestrial origin of DNA/RNA nucleobases in meteorites fueled speculation about alien life, slightly increasing market optimism for official confirmation by year-end.
New Analysis Reveals Extraterrestrial Origins of Life's Building Blocks
December 31 rises to 12%1%
A scientific study reported that all five nucleobases forming DNA and RNA were found in an ancient extraterrestrial stone, fueling speculation about extraterrestrial life and supporting market interest in confirmation by the US government.
President issues Presidential Document launching Genesis Mission
A presidential document announced a major science and technology initiative focused on national challenges, signaling renewed U.S. commitment to space exploration and extraterrestrial research.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files, Trump encourages public to draw conclusions
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On November 28, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified anomalous phenomena. President Trump highlighted the release, emphasizing transparency and inviting the public to interpret the information themselves. This event caused a significant price increase in the market, reflecting heightened speculation about possible confirmation of alien existence.
Presidential Executive Order Launches Genesis Mission to Address Science Challenges
December 31 dips to 9%4%
A presidential document ordered the Secretary to identify key science and technology challenges, signaling increased government focus on advanced scientific missions, indirectly supporting the possibility of alien life research progress.
Federal Register: Presidential document launches new science and technology challenges mission
December 31 rises to 11%4%
A Presidential Document by the Executive Office of the President, dated November 28, 2025, directed the Secretary to identify and submit at least 20 science and technology challenges for a national mission, potentially expanding government focus on extraterrestrial exploration.
CIA Issues 'Glomar Response' to 3I/ATLAS FOIA Request
December 31 jumps to 21%6%
In response to a November 2025 Freedom of Information Act request, the CIA stated it could neither deny nor confirm the existence or nonexistence of records regarding the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, adding ambiguity about government knowledge of extraterrestrial life.
White House launches Genesis Mission focusing on science and technology challenges
December 31 dips to 9%4%
The Executive Office of the President issued an order to identify key science and technology challenges, signaling increased federal focus on advanced scientific endeavors. While not directly about aliens, this heightened scientific agenda contributed to market optimism about potential discoveries.
The Age of Disclosure documentary released, featuring 34 U.S. government and military officials alleging decades-long UFO cover-up
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The documentary's release intensified speculation that the U.S. government has been concealing evidence of extraterrestrial life, pressuring the Trump administration to declassify UFO information.
Pentagon begins releasing UFO files amid Trump’s push for transparency
December 31 rises to 11%4%
The Pentagon started releasing a batch of UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, as part of an effort encouraged by President Trump to increase transparency on the subject. This event heightened public and market interest in the possibility of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a notable price increase in the market for confirmation by December 31.
Whistleblower David Grusch advises congressional caucuses on UFO disclosure
Whistleblower David Grusch, a former US Air Force intelligence officer, continued to advise congressional caucuses into early 2026, adding legal and political weight to calls for disclosure and intensifying legislative efforts, which supported market optimism.
Federal Register: Presidential document identifies 20+ science and technology challenges for national importance
December 31 rises to 12%1%
A Presidential Document by the Executive Office of the President announced the identification of at least 20 science and technology challenges of national importance, including potential extraterrestrial life research, signaling renewed government focus on space exploration.
Release of documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' alleging decades-long UFO cover-up
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The documentary featured 34 current and former US government, military, and intelligence figures claiming a cover-up of UFO information, significantly increasing public and political pressure for disclosure. This event caused a market price increase due to heightened expectations of official confirmation.
NASA Acting Administrator denies alien existence amid 3I/ATLAS comet speculation
December 31 dips to 9%4%
In late November 2025, NASA's Acting Administrator Sean Duffy publicly denied the existence of aliens in response to speculation that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS was alien technology. This official denial likely tempered market optimism, causing a price drop from 13% to 9%.
CIA issues ambiguous response on interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 rises to 11%4%
In late November 2025, the CIA responded to a FOIA request with a 'neither confirm nor deny' statement regarding records on the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, fueling speculation about government secrecy on extraterrestrial matters. This uncertainty caused a market price increase for the December 31 outcome from 7% to 11%.
Defense Department Releases Declassified UFO Sightings Documents
December 31 rises to 12%1%
The Defense Department released a trove of declassified documents about government UFO sightings, fueling public and market interest in extraterrestrial phenomena.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files revealing unusual sightings
December 31 rises to 11%4%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files detailing numerous sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena, including erratic maneuvers and bright orbs, sparking public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This release, encouraged by former President Trump, increased market optimism about a possible official confirmation by December 31, 2026, causing the price for that outcome to rise from 7% to 11%.
Reports emerge of Trump administration preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
News surfaced that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing, sparking increased market interest and a price rise to 13% by November 28. This speculation fueled optimism about imminent official confirmation.
Whistleblower Grusch says Trump will be briefed on extraterrestrials
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A whistleblower, former Air Force officer David Grusch, publicly told Pravda‑USA that the administration was preparing a briefing on “basic facts” about extraterrestrials. The story amplified media attention on a possible imminent disclosure, lifting the market from 7 % to 13 % in the two‑day span from Nov 25 to Nov 29.
Report suggests Trump administration preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A news report on November 27, 2025, claimed that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing, sparking speculation and a market price increase. This raised hopes of imminent official confirmation, impacting the market for the December 31 outcome.
U.S. Administration Preparing to Announce and Acknowledge Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Reports emerged that President Trump had been briefed on extraterrestrial life and that the administration was considering how to handle this information, raising market optimism about a possible official confirmation before year-end.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' alleges decades-long UFO cover-up
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The November 2025 release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary featuring 34 current and former US officials alleging a government cover-up increased public and political pressure for UFO disclosure, boosting market optimism about a possible official confirmation by year-end.
Report: US Administration Preparing to Announce Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A news report indicated that the US President and administration were considering announcing the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings, which significantly increased market optimism about a confirmation by December 31, 2026. This caused the market price to jump from 7% to 13% within days.
Reports emerge of US administration preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
News surfaced that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings, sparking market interest and a price increase around late November. However, no official confirmation followed, keeping prices moderate.
US Administration Prepares to Announce Extraterrestrial Life Existence
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Reports emerged that the US President and administration were considering announcing the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings on humanity's place in the universe. This news caused a notable increase in market optimism about a December 31 confirmation.
Reports emerge of potential upcoming US announcement on extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Media reported that the Trump administration was considering announcing the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings, sparking speculation and a modest market price increase. However, no official confirmation followed, limiting sustained price growth.
Reports emerge of possible upcoming US announcement on extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
News surfaced that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing, sparking market interest and a price increase for the December 31 outcome from 7% to 13% by early December. This speculation raised hopes for official confirmation within the year.
Reports Surface of U.S. Administration Preparing to Acknowledge Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Speculation grew following reports that President Trump was being briefed on basic facts regarding humanity's place in the universe, with his team deciding how to handle potential disclosure.
Reports emerge of potential US presidential announcement on extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
News surfaced suggesting President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings on humanity's place in the universe, sparking increased market interest and a price rise to 13% by November 28.
Reports of Trump administration preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
News emerged suggesting that President Trump had been briefed on extraterrestrial information and that his administration was considering disclosure, which briefly increased market optimism about official confirmation before year-end.
Pentagon releases new batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The Defense Department posted a new website with previously unseen UFO documents, and President Trump highlighted the release on Truth Social, prompting traders to anticipate an official confirmation of alien existence.
US Administration Preparing to Announce Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Reports emerged that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing on humanity's place in the universe, sparking market optimism and a price increase for the December 31 outcome.
US administration reportedly preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
Reports emerged that the US administration was considering an announcement about extraterrestrial life after receiving briefings, fueling speculation and market optimism about official confirmation by 2026.
CIA Issues 'Glomar Response' to FOIA Request on 3I/ATLAS Records
December 31 rises to 11%4%
The CIA refused to confirm or deny holding any records about the interstellar object, treating the information as sensitive enough to be classified, which fueled conspiracy theories about government concealment of extraterrestrial knowledge.
YouGov Poll Shows 47% of Americans Believe Aliens Have Visited Earth
December 31 rises to 12%1%
A YouGov poll revealed that 47% of Americans believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, a significant increase from 36% in 2012, influencing public perception of extraterrestrial life.
Reports emerge that President Trump may announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On November 27, 2025, news surfaced that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing on humanity's place in the universe. This speculation caused a rise in market optimism about a possible confirmation before year-end.
Reports emerge that US administration may announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Speculation arose that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings on humanity's place in the universe, sparking early market interest in confirmation by year-end 2026.
Reports of US administration preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Reports emerged that President Trump and his team were considering how to handle briefings on extraterrestrial life, fueling speculation and market interest in a possible official confirmation.
U.S. Administration Preparing to Announce and Acknowledge Extraterrestrial Life
A Pravda USA article reported that President Trump may announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing on 'basic facts' about humanity's place in the universe, sparking speculation about a potential U.S. government disclosure.
Reports Suggest Trump Administration Preparing to Brief President on Extraterrestrial Life and Handle Potential Disclosure
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A report claimed that President Trump's team was preparing to brief him on basic facts regarding humanity's place in the universe and deciding how to handle potential disclosure, briefly boosting speculative interest in the market.
President Trump orders Pentagon to release files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 10%3%
President Trump announced on his social media platform that he would direct the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena, and UFOs. This announcement increased market optimism about a possible confirmation, raising the price from 7% to 10%.
Reports emerge that Trump administration may announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
News surfaced that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing, sparking market optimism and a price rise from 7% to 11% for the December 31 outcome. This speculation increased expectations of official confirmation within the year.
Release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary alleging UFO cover-up
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The documentary featured 34 current and former US government, military, and intelligence personnel claiming a multi-decade concealment of UFO evidence, placing the issue on President Trump's agenda and intensifying public and political pressure for disclosure. This event sparked increased market optimism about a potential confirmation by December 31, 2026.
U.S. Administration Announces Preparation to Announce Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 rises to 15%2%
A report claimed the Trump administration was preparing to announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefing on humanity's place in the universe, sparking market speculation.
Israeli Uri Geller claims Trump and Netanyahu know aliens exist
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Uri Geller publicly stated that US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are aware of extraterrestrial life, describing alleged firsthand experiences with alien bodies. This claim sparked renewed speculation and a market uptick, though it lacked official confirmation.
US President issues proclamation restricting entry of foreign nationals citing national security
December 31 rises to 8%1%
President's proclamation restricting entry of foreign nationals was a security measure unrelated to extraterrestrial life but may have influenced market sentiment due to the use of the term 'aliens' in immigration context.
House Oversight hearing spotlights whistleblower claims of alien biologics
December 31 jumps to 14%7%
The House Oversight Committee held a high‑profile hearing on UAPs, featuring whistleblower David Grusch and senior military officials. Media coverage emphasized the possibility of “non‑human biologics,” pushing market participants to price‑in a near‑term confirmation, which lifted the Yes probability from 7 % on Nov 25 to 14 % on Nov 28.
OSTP Requests Public Input to Accelerate American Scientific Enterprise
The Office of Science and Technology Policy issued a request for information to update federal policies aimed at accelerating scientific discovery, signaling continued government focus on science but without any alien disclosure. This maintained market skepticism about imminent confirmation.
Uri Geller claims Trump and Netanyahu know aliens exist
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Israeli celebrity Uri Geller publicly claimed that US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are aware of alien existence, describing his personal experience seeing frozen extraterrestrial bodies. This fueled speculation and briefly increased market interest in a December 31 confirmation.
Donald Trump rumored to be on verge of alien existence confirmation
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On November 25, 2025, reports emerged suggesting former President Donald Trump might soon publicly acknowledge extraterrestrial life, sparking a surge in market interest and price increases. This speculation was fueled by Trump's past statements and insider tips, raising hopes of imminent disclosure.
Former President Obama states aliens are "real" but no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Obama's podcast interview where he said aliens are "real" but he saw no evidence of contact during his presidency sparked renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life, influencing market prices upward.
CIA issues ambiguous response on interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
In response to a November 2025 FOIA request, the CIA stated it could neither confirm nor deny records about 3I/ATLAS, fueling speculation about possible extraterrestrial technology and briefly increasing market optimism for a US confirmation of aliens.
Media Speculation Mounts Over Donald Trump Confirming Alien Existence Following Documentary Release
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Reports emerged highlighting that President Donald Trump could be on the verge of publicly acknowledging extraterrestrial life, fueled by the release of the documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' featuring 34 government and military officials.
Release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary alleging decades-long UFO cover-up
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The documentary featured 34 current and former US government, military, and intelligence officials claiming a multi-decade concealment of UFO information. This film significantly increased public and political pressure for disclosure, boosting market optimism about potential confirmation by the US government.
Release of documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' intensifies calls for UFO file declassification
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The November 2025 release of a documentary featuring US government and military figures alleging a cover-up of extraterrestrial information increased public and political pressure on the White House to disclose UFO-related files, contributing to early market price rises.
Trump may be on brink of publicly acknowledging extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A RadarOnline article reported speculation that President Trump might disclose alien secrets, citing his previous comments about extraterrestrial life and the 'Age of Disclosure' documentary featuring 34 U.S. officials claiming alien cover-ups.
Americans Increasingly Believe Aliens Have Visited Earth
December 31 rises to 11%4%
A YouGov poll showed 47% of Americans believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, up from 36% in 2012, fueling public and market speculation.
NASA scientists develop new technosignature detection methods for alien life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On November 25, 2025, NASA scientists announced innovative methodologies to detect extraterrestrial civilizations through technosignatures, sparking renewed interest in the search for alien life and briefly boosting market optimism about potential US confirmation.
Legislative action mandates new briefings on UAP encounters and review of classified material
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 required new briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004 and a review of potentially over-classified information, signaling increased congressional scrutiny and intensifying legislative pressure for disclosure, supporting market optimism.
CIA Issues 'Glomar Response' to FOIA Request on 3I/ATLAS
The CIA responded to a November 2025 Freedom of Information Act request with a 'Glomar response,' neither confirming nor denying any records about 3I/ATLAS. This ambiguous stance reignited conspiracy theories about government concealment of extraterrestrial knowledge.
President Trump rumored to prepare announcement on extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Reports emerged that President Trump might announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings on humanity's place in the universe, sparking market interest in a possible disclosure by year-end.
Fiscal Year 2026 NDAA mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP incidents since 2004
December 31 dips to 12%4%
The National Defense Authorization Act for 2026 required the Pentagon's anomaly office to brief Congress on UAPs and review classification policies, signaling increased governmental transparency efforts and legislative pressure, supporting market optimism.
USCIS publishes FY2026 immigration fee increases
USCIS announced fee increases for asylum, TPS, and SIJ cases effective January 1, 2026, affecting discretionary benefits adjudication processes.
President Trump May Announce Extraterrestrial Existence Following New Briefings
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Reports emerged that President Trump was considering announcing the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings on humanity's place in the universe, sparking market interest and a price increase for the December 31 outcome.
2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings and data review
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The Act requires the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP incidents since 2004 and review classification practices. This legislative push intensified expectations for official disclosure, supporting market gains.
Trump administration suspends green card applications for refugees amid immigration crackdown
The Trump administration's immigration policies, including suspending green card applications, increased public focus on 'aliens' but referred to foreign nationals, not extraterrestrials. This may have caused some market confusion but had limited impact on the alien confirmation market.
Filmmaker Claims President Trump Is on the Verge of Confirming Alien Existence
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The director of a new UAP documentary revealed that President Trump is aware of the film and may be poised to publicly acknowledge extraterrestrial life, boosting market confidence.
Reports emerge that President Trump may reveal alien existence before year-end
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Speculation intensified as reports surfaced that Trump intended to disclose alien information by the end of 2025, boosting market prices due to increased perceived likelihood of confirmation.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' released, alleging government cover-up of alien life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The November 2025 release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary featuring 34 current and former US officials alleging decades-long concealment of extraterrestrial evidence increased public and political pressure for disclosure, boosting market optimism for a December 31 confirmation.
NASA Rejects Alien Conspiracy Theory on 3I/ATLAS Object
NASA's associate administrator Nicola Fox rejected the alien theory at a November 2025 news conference, stating no technosignatures were found, which may have tempered market enthusiasm for extraterrestrial life confirmation.
Report suggests Donald Trump may soon confirm existence of aliens
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On November 25, 2025, reports emerged that former President Trump was on the verge of publicly acknowledging extraterrestrial life, driven by whistleblower testimonies and political pressure. This speculation sparked increased market interest and a price rise from 7% to 11% by November 28.
White House launches Genesis Mission to accelerate AI-driven scientific discovery
December 31 rises to 8%1%
The White House announced the Genesis Mission via Executive Order, aiming to accelerate AI-enabled research and innovation, signaling increased government focus on advanced scientific exploration, which may indirectly fuel speculation about extraterrestrial discoveries.
Reports Suggest President Trump May Announce Extraterrestrial Life Soon
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
On November 25, 2025, media outlets reported that President Trump might disclose the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving a briefing, causing a spike in market prices from 7% to 13%. This speculation raised public and market interest but lacked official confirmation.
US House holds explosive UFO hearing revealing military drone firing on glowing orb
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
On November 25, 2025, a congressional hearing presented shocking video footage of a US military drone firing a Hellfire missile at a glowing orb off Yemen's coast, reigniting public and market interest in UFO disclosure. This event caused a sharp price increase in the market for December 31 outcome from 7% to 13%.
SETI@Home finalizes analysis of Arecibo data
The crowd-sourced SETI@Home project completed its final analysis of 100 radio signals from the collapsed Arecibo Observatory, finding no confirmed alien transmissions but concluding the dataset will improve future extraterrestrial life searches.
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