The Hong Kong Observatory’s September 2026 outlook for normal to below-normal rainfall underpins the 56% implied probability on totals below 275 mm, well under the 321 mm climatological mean. A developing strong El Niño and the seasonal strengthening of the subtropical anticyclone over southern China favor reduced monsoon moisture and fewer or weaker tropical cyclone influences after early-month activity. Tropical Cyclone Saudel is currently delivering squally showers across the northern South China Sea, yet steering patterns and model consensus point to a drier transition by mid-to-late September. Key upcoming drivers include updated HKO forecasts, additional cyclone formation potential in the South China Sea, and any shifts in western North Pacific storm tracks that could alter accumulation before month-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPrécipitations à Hong Kong en septembre ?
Précipitations à Hong Kong en septembre ?
<275mm 53%
275-300mm 16%
400-450mm 10%
325-350mm 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
<275mm
53%
275-300mm
16%
300-325mm
8%
325-350mm
10%
350-375mm
5%
375-400mm
6%
400-450mm
7%
450-500mm
5%
500-550mm
5%
550mm+
4%
<275mm 53%
275-300mm 16%
400-450mm 10%
325-350mm 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
<275mm
$2,172 Vol.
53%
275-300mm
$128 Vol.
16%
300-325mm
$128 Vol.
8%
325-350mm
$128 Vol.
10%
350-375mm
$125 Vol.
5%
375-400mm
$125 Vol.
6%
400-450mm
$150 Vol.
7%
450-500mm
$168 Vol.
5%
500-550mm
$149 Vol.
5%
550mm+
$150 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory’s September 2026 outlook for normal to below-normal rainfall underpins the 56% implied probability on totals below 275 mm, well under the 321 mm climatological mean. A developing strong El Niño and the seasonal strengthening of the subtropical anticyclone over southern China favor reduced monsoon moisture and fewer or weaker tropical cyclone influences after early-month activity. Tropical Cyclone Saudel is currently delivering squally showers across the northern South China Sea, yet steering patterns and model consensus point to a drier transition by mid-to-late September. Key upcoming drivers include updated HKO forecasts, additional cyclone formation potential in the South China Sea, and any shifts in western North Pacific storm tracks that could alter accumulation before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$3,421Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory’s September 2026 outlook for normal to below-normal rainfall underpins the 56% implied probability on totals below 275 mm, well under the 321 mm climatological mean. A developing strong El Niño and the seasonal strengthening of the subtropical anticyclone over southern China favor reduced monsoon moisture and fewer or weaker tropical cyclone influences after early-month activity. Tropical Cyclone Saudel is currently delivering squally showers across the northern South China Sea, yet steering patterns and model consensus point to a drier transition by mid-to-late September. Key upcoming drivers include updated HKO forecasts, additional cyclone formation potential in the South China Sea, and any shifts in western North Pacific storm tracks that could alter accumulation before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,421Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory’s September 2026 outlook for normal to below-normal rainfall underpins the 56% implied probability on totals below 275 mm, well under the 321 mm climatological mean. A developing strong El Niño and the seasonal strengthening of the subtropical anticyclone over southern China favor reduced monsoon moisture and fewer or weaker tropical cyclone influences after early-month activity. Tropical Cyclone Saudel is currently delivering squally showers across the northern South China Sea, yet steering patterns and model consensus point to a drier transition by mid-to-late September. Key upcoming drivers include updated HKO forecasts, additional cyclone formation potential in the South China Sea, and any shifts in western North Pacific storm tracks that could alter accumulation before month-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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