**Historical September precipitation in London averages 50–55 mm at Heathrow (1991–2020 normals), placing the 50–60 mm bin at the center of the distribution and explaining its 36% market lead.** Recent hot, dry UK summer conditions under a strengthening El Niño (Niño 3.4 already +2.4–2.6 °C) have favored below-average early-month rainfall, with Met Office and GFS guidance showing only light totals (a few mm) through the first week of September 2026 amid a changeable pattern of showers rather than prolonged wet spells. ENSO teleconnections and lingering high-pressure influences support near-normal monthly accumulation, though model spread and the potential for late-month Atlantic systems keep 30–40 mm and 80 mm+ outcomes competitive at 24% each. Traders are weighting the climatological mode most heavily while acknowledging forecast uncertainty this early in the period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPrécipitations à Londres en septembre ?
Précipitations à Londres en septembre ?
50-60mm 36%
30-40mm 24%
80mm+ 24%
60-70mm 24%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
<30mm
10%
30-40mm
24%
40-50mm
19%
50-60mm
36%
60-70mm
24%
70-80mm
21%
80mm+
24%
50-60mm 36%
30-40mm 24%
80mm+ 24%
60-70mm 24%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
<30mm
$572 Vol.
10%
30-40mm
$38 Vol.
24%
40-50mm
$64 Vol.
19%
50-60mm
$20 Vol.
36%
60-70mm
$20 Vol.
24%
70-80mm
$41 Vol.
21%
80mm+
$20 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Historical September precipitation in London averages 50–55 mm at Heathrow (1991–2020 normals), placing the 50–60 mm bin at the center of the distribution and explaining its 36% market lead.** Recent hot, dry UK summer conditions under a strengthening El Niño (Niño 3.4 already +2.4–2.6 °C) have favored below-average early-month rainfall, with Met Office and GFS guidance showing only light totals (a few mm) through the first week of September 2026 amid a changeable pattern of showers rather than prolonged wet spells. ENSO teleconnections and lingering high-pressure influences support near-normal monthly accumulation, though model spread and the potential for late-month Atlantic systems keep 30–40 mm and 80 mm+ outcomes competitive at 24% each. Traders are weighting the climatological mode most heavily while acknowledging forecast uncertainty this early in the period.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ET
Volume
$775Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Historical September precipitation in London averages 50–55 mm at Heathrow (1991–2020 normals), placing the 50–60 mm bin at the center of the distribution and explaining its 36% market lead.** Recent hot, dry UK summer conditions under a strengthening El Niño (Niño 3.4 already +2.4–2.6 °C) have favored below-average early-month rainfall, with Met Office and GFS guidance showing only light totals (a few mm) through the first week of September 2026 amid a changeable pattern of showers rather than prolonged wet spells. ENSO teleconnections and lingering high-pressure influences support near-normal monthly accumulation, though model spread and the potential for late-month Atlantic systems keep 30–40 mm and 80 mm+ outcomes competitive at 24% each. Traders are weighting the climatological mode most heavily while acknowledging forecast uncertainty this early in the period.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$775Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Historical September precipitation in London averages 50–55 mm at Heathrow (1991–2020 normals), placing the 50–60 mm bin at the center of the distribution and explaining its 36% market lead.** Recent hot, dry UK summer conditions under a strengthening El Niño (Niño 3.4 already +2.4–2.6 °C) have favored below-average early-month rainfall, with Met Office and GFS guidance showing only light totals (a few mm) through the first week of September 2026 amid a changeable pattern of showers rather than prolonged wet spells. ENSO teleconnections and lingering high-pressure influences support near-normal monthly accumulation, though model spread and the potential for late-month Atlantic systems keep 30–40 mm and 80 mm+ outcomes competitive at 24% each. Traders are weighting the climatological mode most heavily while acknowledging forecast uncertainty this early in the period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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