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icon for La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ?

La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ?

icon for La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ?

La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ?

7,9 ou moins 67%

8,0 – 8,1 11%

8,2–8,3 10%

8,4 – 8,5 7%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

7,9 ou moins 67%

8,0 – 8,1 11%

8,2–8,3 10%

8,4 – 8,5 7%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

7,9 ou moins

$97 Vol.

67%

8,0 – 8,1

$40 Vol.

11%

8,2–8,3

$55 Vol.

10%

8,4 – 8,5

$40 Vol.

7%

8,6 – 8,7

$60 Vol.

6%

8,8 – 8,9

$40 Vol.

6%

9,0 ou plus

$27 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market-implied 66.5% probability for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below in 2026 reflects USGS records showing the year’s strongest event as the M7.8 Mindanao earthquake of June 7–8, followed by an M7.7 off Flores, Indonesia on August 14 and an M7.4 in Colombia on August 10. No larger events have occurred despite ten M7+ quakes documented so far. Subduction-zone monitoring by the USGS and regional agencies indicates typical aftershock sequences and background seismicity without precursors suggesting an imminent M8+ rupture. Statistically, great earthquakes exceeding M8 occur only a few times per decade globally, supporting trader consensus that the remaining five months are unlikely to produce a new record unless an unexpected megathrust event materializes along high-strain segments such as the Japan Trench or Cascadia.

This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.

An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.

This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$357
Date de fin
4 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET

Source de résolution

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market-implied 66.5% probability for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below in 2026 reflects USGS records showing the year’s strongest event as the M7.8 Mindanao earthquake of June 7–8, followed by an M7.7 off Flores, Indonesia on August 14 and an M7.4 in Colombia on August 10. No larger events have occurred despite ten M7+ quakes documented so far. Subduction-zone monitoring by the USGS and regional agencies indicates typical aftershock sequences and background seismicity without precursors suggesting an imminent M8+ rupture. Statistically, great earthquakes exceeding M8 occur only a few times per decade globally, supporting trader consensus that the remaining five months are unlikely to produce a new record unless an unexpected megathrust event materializes along high-strain segments such as the Japan Trench or Cascadia.

This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.

An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.

This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$357
Date de fin
4 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET

Source de résolution

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.

Connexes

icon for Y aura-t-il entre 14 et 16 tremblements de terre de magnitude 7,0 ou plus dans le monde en 2026 ?

Y aura-t-il entre 14 et 16 tremblements de terre de magnitude 7,0 ou plus dans le monde en 2026 ?

47%
Oui
icon for Un séisme de magnitude 6,5+ surviendra-t-il dans le monde d'ici le 30 septembre ?

Un séisme de magnitude 6,5+ surviendra-t-il dans le monde d'ici le 30 septembre ?

98%
Oui
icon for Y aura-t-il exactement 0 tremblements de terre de magnitude 6,5 ou plus dans le monde du 17 août au 23 août ?

Y aura-t-il exactement 0 tremblements de terre de magnitude 6,5 ou plus dans le monde du 17 août au 23 août ?

54%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 7,9 ou moins » à 67%, suivi de « 8,0 – 8,1 » à 11%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 67¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 67% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 18, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ? » est « 7,9 ou moins » à 67%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 67% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 8,0 – 8,1 » à 11%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.