Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 79% for the Natural Disaster in 2026 market because the resolution thresholds—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor strike—remain statistically rare. No qualifying events have occurred through mid-June despite routine seismic activity, typical early-year floods or wildfires, and ongoing monitoring by USGS and NOAA. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not supported the rapid intensification needed for extreme Atlantic or Pacific hurricanes. With roughly half the year remaining and no alerts for impending mega-events from Smithsonian or other agencies, the market-implied odds reflect the low baseline probabilities absent a sudden shift in forecasts or new seismic data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCatastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Oui
$222,954 Vol.
$222,954 Vol.
Oui
$222,954 Vol.
$222,954 Vol.
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 79% for the Natural Disaster in 2026 market because the resolution thresholds—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor strike—remain statistically rare. No qualifying events have occurred through mid-June despite routine seismic activity, typical early-year floods or wildfires, and ongoing monitoring by USGS and NOAA. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not supported the rapid intensification needed for extreme Atlantic or Pacific hurricanes. With roughly half the year remaining and no alerts for impending mega-events from Smithsonian or other agencies, the market-implied odds reflect the low baseline probabilities absent a sudden shift in forecasts or new seismic data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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