Trader consensus assigns roughly 77.5% implied probability to “No” on the narrowly defined “Natural Disaster in 2026?” market, which resolves Yes only for a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season tropical activity. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not supported rapid intensification, consistent with NOAA and USGS monitoring. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 landfall every several years, VEI 6+ eruptions once per decade or longer, and great earthquakes a handful of times per century—anchor the elevated “No” odds with six months remaining.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCatastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Catastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Oui
$223,410 Vol.
$223,410 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$223,410 Vol.
$223,410 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns roughly 77.5% implied probability to “No” on the narrowly defined “Natural Disaster in 2026?” market, which resolves Yes only for a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season tropical activity. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not supported rapid intensification, consistent with NOAA and USGS monitoring. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 landfall every several years, VEI 6+ eruptions once per decade or longer, and great earthquakes a handful of times per century—anchor the elevated “No” odds with six months remaining.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$223,410Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns roughly 77.5% implied probability to “No” on the narrowly defined “Natural Disaster in 2026?” market, which resolves Yes only for a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season tropical activity. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not supported rapid intensification, consistent with NOAA and USGS monitoring. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 landfall every several years, VEI 6+ eruptions once per decade or longer, and great earthquakes a handful of times per century—anchor the elevated “No” odds with six months remaining.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$223,410Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns roughly 77.5% implied probability to “No” on the narrowly defined “Natural Disaster in 2026?” market, which resolves Yes only for a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season tropical activity. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not supported rapid intensification, consistent with NOAA and USGS monitoring. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 landfall every several years, VEI 6+ eruptions once per decade or longer, and great earthquakes a handful of times per century—anchor the elevated “No” odds with six months remaining.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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