As of mid-2026, USGS and NOAA monitoring reports show typical seismic and atmospheric activity levels without major anomalies or elevated thresholds for qualifying events, sustaining trader consensus around the 69.5% implied probability for "No." Seasonal hurricane outlooks from the National Hurricane Center indicate near-average formation risks through the Atlantic basin, while global temperature and ENSO indices remain within historical norms that rarely trigger extreme outcomes. With over four months remaining, resolution hinges on whether any single event meets predefined magnitude, category, or impact criteria; ongoing data releases from official agencies will provide the next key updates for model revisions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCatastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Oui
$235,917 Vol.
$235,917 Vol.
Oui
$235,917 Vol.
$235,917 Vol.
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...As of mid-2026, USGS and NOAA monitoring reports show typical seismic and atmospheric activity levels without major anomalies or elevated thresholds for qualifying events, sustaining trader consensus around the 69.5% implied probability for "No." Seasonal hurricane outlooks from the National Hurricane Center indicate near-average formation risks through the Atlantic basin, while global temperature and ENSO indices remain within historical norms that rarely trigger extreme outcomes. With over four months remaining, resolution hinges on whether any single event meets predefined magnitude, category, or impact criteria; ongoing data releases from official agencies will provide the next key updates for model revisions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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