Trader consensus assigning an 86% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently: Category 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per decade in recent climatology, while VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes each occur globally at rates supporting low single-digit annual odds. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end and no elevated seismic or volcanic alerts from USGS or NOAA monitoring, updated agency data reinforce the current market-implied odds absent sudden model shifts or new observations in the final quarter.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCatastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Catastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Oui
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
Oui
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdfTrader consensus assigning an 86% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently: Category 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per decade in recent climatology, while VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes each occur globally at rates supporting low single-digit annual odds. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end and no elevated seismic or volcanic alerts from USGS or NOAA monitoring, updated agency data reinforce the current market-implied odds absent sudden model shifts or new observations in the final quarter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,943Date de fin
1 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdfTrader consensus assigning an 86% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently: Category 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per decade in recent climatology, while VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes each occur globally at rates supporting low single-digit annual odds. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end and no elevated seismic or volcanic alerts from USGS or NOAA monitoring, updated agency data reinforce the current market-implied odds absent sudden model shifts or new observations in the final quarter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070be91...Trader consensus assigning an 86% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently: Category 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per decade in recent climatology, while VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes each occur globally at rates supporting low single-digit annual odds. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end and no elevated seismic or volcanic alerts from USGS or NOAA monitoring, updated agency data reinforce the current market-implied odds absent sudden model shifts or new observations in the final quarter.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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