**No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater has occurred in 2026, and continuous NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no credible impact risk through year-end.** Ongoing surveys detect only small fireballs and meter-scale objects that burn up harmlessly, consistent with historical rates where 10kt+ events remain rare. A noted uptick in medium fireballs this year has been linked to possible debris from an asteroid-belt collision, but it has not produced any objects approaching the energy threshold. With roughly four months remaining and no objects on collision trajectories flagged in risk lists, trader consensus heavily favors no event. Any late discovery of a sizable NEO would be the primary remaining catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCoup de météore majeur (10kt+) en 2026 ?
Coup de météore majeur (10kt+) en 2026 ?
Oui
12% chance
$202,236 Vol.
$202,236 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
12% chance
$202,236 Vol.
$202,236 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater has occurred in 2026, and continuous NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no credible impact risk through year-end.** Ongoing surveys detect only small fireballs and meter-scale objects that burn up harmlessly, consistent with historical rates where 10kt+ events remain rare. A noted uptick in medium fireballs this year has been linked to possible debris from an asteroid-belt collision, but it has not produced any objects approaching the energy threshold. With roughly four months remaining and no objects on collision trajectories flagged in risk lists, trader consensus heavily favors no event. Any late discovery of a sizable NEO would be the primary remaining catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$202,236Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater has occurred in 2026, and continuous NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no credible impact risk through year-end.** Ongoing surveys detect only small fireballs and meter-scale objects that burn up harmlessly, consistent with historical rates where 10kt+ events remain rare. A noted uptick in medium fireballs this year has been linked to possible debris from an asteroid-belt collision, but it has not produced any objects approaching the energy threshold. With roughly four months remaining and no objects on collision trajectories flagged in risk lists, trader consensus heavily favors no event. Any late discovery of a sizable NEO would be the primary remaining catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$202,236Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater has occurred in 2026, and continuous NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no credible impact risk through year-end.** Ongoing surveys detect only small fireballs and meter-scale objects that burn up harmlessly, consistent with historical rates where 10kt+ events remain rare. A noted uptick in medium fireballs this year has been linked to possible debris from an asteroid-belt collision, but it has not produced any objects approaching the energy threshold. With roughly four months remaining and no objects on collision trajectories flagged in risk lists, trader consensus heavily favors no event. Any late discovery of a sizable NEO would be the primary remaining catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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