NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no cataloged asteroid or comet on an impact trajectory capable of delivering 100-kiloton energy in 2026, reflecting exhaustive optical, radar, and infrared surveys that have identified most objects larger than about 140 meters. Objects in the 10–30 meter range needed for such an airburst or surface event remain statistically rare, with historical rates suggesting impacts of this scale occur only once every several centuries to millennia. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring further reduces the chance of surprise arrivals. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from a possible undetected long-period comet or last-minute orbital revision of a faint object, though either would require rapid confirmation before altering the market’s strong “No” consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour100kt de météorites en 2026 ?
100kt de météorites en 2026 ?
Oui
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no cataloged asteroid or comet on an impact trajectory capable of delivering 100-kiloton energy in 2026, reflecting exhaustive optical, radar, and infrared surveys that have identified most objects larger than about 140 meters. Objects in the 10–30 meter range needed for such an airburst or surface event remain statistically rare, with historical rates suggesting impacts of this scale occur only once every several centuries to millennia. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring further reduces the chance of surprise arrivals. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from a possible undetected long-period comet or last-minute orbital revision of a faint object, though either would require rapid confirmation before altering the market’s strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,902Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no cataloged asteroid or comet on an impact trajectory capable of delivering 100-kiloton energy in 2026, reflecting exhaustive optical, radar, and infrared surveys that have identified most objects larger than about 140 meters. Objects in the 10–30 meter range needed for such an airburst or surface event remain statistically rare, with historical rates suggesting impacts of this scale occur only once every several centuries to millennia. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring further reduces the chance of surprise arrivals. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from a possible undetected long-period comet or last-minute orbital revision of a faint object, though either would require rapid confirmation before altering the market’s strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,902Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no cataloged asteroid or comet on an impact trajectory capable of delivering 100-kiloton energy in 2026, reflecting exhaustive optical, radar, and infrared surveys that have identified most objects larger than about 140 meters. Objects in the 10–30 meter range needed for such an airburst or surface event remain statistically rare, with historical rates suggesting impacts of this scale occur only once every several centuries to millennia. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring further reduces the chance of surprise arrivals. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from a possible undetected long-period comet or last-minute orbital revision of a faint object, though either would require rapid confirmation before altering the market’s strong “No” consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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